2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[Sestak]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Could be huge.

[Holmes]

It would essentially be ceding Florida outright. But they're probably seeing numbers internally that we're not.

[heatcharger]

It would essentially be ceding Florida outright. But they're probably seeing numbers internally that we're not.

That and, it would be nice to avoid an ungodly spending war with Rick Scott, which would free up time, money, and effort for other downballot races in Florida. Curbelo needs to be made DOA and Diaz-Balart should probably be given a serious opponent in this environment.

[Cactus Jack]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

[Holmes]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he passes, but I don't think it would be the last we see of him. He would easily take Rubio's seat in 2022, and maybe that's on his mind. Why spend millions upon millions of personal wealth on a race you'll probably lose when Rubio likely will step down in 2022 and you'd be the clear frontrunner?

[TheSaint250]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

[junior chįmp]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

He was never going to win anyway. He spent $70 million to win by .5% in a GOP wave year

Scott is a clown

[Sestak]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he passes, but I don't think it would be the last we see of him. He would easily take Rubio's seat in 2022, and maybe that's on his mind. Why spend millions upon millions of personal wealth on a race you'll probably lose when Rubio likely will step down in 2022 and you'd be the clear frontrunner?

...I don't think Rubio's going anywhere.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Monmouth, Dec 10-12, 806 adults

D 51
R 36

Trump approval: 32/56

That margin looks like a 80 seat pickup for the Democrats.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

So yeah Iowa doesn't like Trump or Blum right now https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/945913001#click=https://t.co/hDgAUI3iTg

I have always thought it very odd how all the supposed geniuses here have permanently written off Iowa. Iowa until 2016 voted Democrat for 32 years and always had a Democratic PVI. Iowa is prone to massive swings and 2016 could have been a massive fluke.

[Holmes]

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https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

Can it be? Are we really going to be given a pass on having to fend off Governor Voldemort?

Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he passes, but I don't think it would be the last we see of him. He would easily take Rubio's seat in 2022, and maybe that's on his mind. Why spend millions upon millions of personal wealth on a race you'll probably lose when Rubio likely will step down in 2022 and you'd be the clear frontrunner?

...I don't think Rubio's going anywhere.

He decided not to run for re-election until basically the last minute in 2016 because Republicans had to literally beg him.

[junior chįmp]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/13/us/alabama-senate-republican-divisions-democrats.html

Scott reconsidering after last night.

He was never going to win anyway. He spent $70 million to win by .5% in a GOP wave year

Scott is a clown

His kids probably aren't too fond of the idea of him blowing their inheritance just for him to get BTFO'd by my boy Bill.

It's cool....he just used the money he stole from Medicare

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

So yeah Iowa doesn't like Trump or Blum right now https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/945913001#click=https://t.co/hDgAUI3iTg

I have always thought it very odd how all the supposed geniuses here have permanently written off Iowa. Iowa until 2016 voted Democrat for 32 years and always had a Democratic PVI. Iowa is prone to massive swings and 2016 could have been a massive fluke.

I would note that against the backdrop of a D+15 nationwide, D+6 does not really refute a long term trend towards the Republicans in the state. That means Republicans are collapsing in far more pronounced ways elsewhere.

Iowa also doesn't have an age gap, but does tend to swing massively, particular in reactions to situations like this. We are in an environment where Republicans are losing ground in states that are more diverse and compensating in states like this. That doesn't mean it will automatically vote Republican, but it is easier to convince a majority of Iowans to do so then it is to get a majority Coloradans or Nevadans. I call it the path of lesser resistance to 270. Resting on "32 years of history" (Until the 80's farm crisis, Iowa was solidly Republican, only going Dem in 1964), falls rather flat because it assumes constancy regarding who is voting in a giving state or in this case, other states when you consider PVI (which is a relative consideration by definition).

Put it like this, Trump and the Republicans are going to get devastated everywhere if these numbers don't change, but in the midwest the damage will be less permanent because of that very elasticity.

[Wiz in Wis]

So yeah Iowa doesn't like Trump or Blum right now https://amp.desmoinesregister.com/amp/945913001#click=https://t.co/hDgAUI3iTg

I have always thought it very odd how all the supposed geniuses here have permanently written off Iowa. Iowa until 2016 voted Democrat for 32 years and always had a Democratic PVI. Iowa is prone to massive swings and 2016 could have been a massive fluke.

I would note that against the backdrop of a D+15 nationwide, D+6 does not really refute a long term trend towards the Republicans in the state. That means Republicans are collapsing in far more pronounced ways elsewhere.

Iowa also doesn't have an age gap, but does tend to swing massively, particular in reactions to situations like this. We are in an environment where Republicans are losing ground in states that are more diverse and compensating in states like this. That doesn't mean it will automatically vote Republican, but it is easier to convince a majority of Iowans to do so then it is to get a majority Coloradans or Nevadans. I call it the path of lesser resistance to 270. Resting on "32 years of history" (Until the 80's farm crisis, Iowa was solidly Republican, only going Dem in 1964), falls rather flat because it assumes constancy regarding who is voting in a giving state or in this case, other states when you consider PVI (which is a relative consideration by definition).

Put it like this, Trump and the Republicans are going to get devastated everywhere if these numbers don't change, but in the midwest the damage will be less permanent because of that very elasticity.

I agree with all of what you said, but given the PVI of King's IA-04 seat, D+6 statewide is probably enough to flip IA-01 and IA-03. IA-02 isn't as liberal as IA-04 is conservative.

[Mr. Morden]

PPP national poll:

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/PPP_Release_National_121417.pdf

Dems 51%
GOP 40%

[The Other Castro]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

[Cactus Jack]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Suburban curbstomping incoming.

A 'burbstomping.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Suburban curbstomping incoming.

A 'burbstomping.

Congratulations, I think you've added a new one to the lexicon.

[Sestak]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Suburban curbstomping incoming.

A 'burbstomping.

Congratulations, I think you've added a new one to the lexicon.

[junior chįmp]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Suburban curbstomping incoming.

A 'burbstomping.

Congratulations, I think you've added a new one to the lexicon.

♫ ♬ ♭ GOP is done!♫ ♬ ♭

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Stivers is a really strong incumbent and the Democrat is a some dude, but I’d love for him to lose.  If the ODP had its sh!t together, he’d be facing a strong opponent so Stivers should be okay

[BuckeyeNut]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Stivers is a really strong incumbent and the Democrat is a some dude, but I’d love for him to lose.  If the ODP had its sh!t together, he’d be facing a strong opponent so Stivers should be okay

I've met Rick Neal. He is a SomeDude, but first time candidates are doing well, and he's got potential and charisma. We'll see what happens.

And who could the ODP actually run here? The Mayor of Athens might be a good candidate, but the Dem bench is very weak because the Franklin County gerrymander is absolutely brutal.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Dave Wasserman‏ @Redistrict
Hearing of a poll in #OH15 showing Dem in a surprisingly close race against NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers (R). Makes sense: @CookPolitical PVI is only R+7 & district includes Athens & Columbus burbs.

2:47 PM - 14 Dec 2017

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/941394177048408069

Stivers is a really strong incumbent and the Democrat is a some dude, but I’d love for him to lose.  If the ODP had its sh!t together, he’d be facing a strong opponent so Stivers should be okay

I've met Rick Neal. He is a SomeDude, but first time candidates are doing well, and he's got potential and charisma. We'll see what happens.

And who could the ODP actually run here? The Mayor of Athens might be a good candidate, but the Dem bench is very weak because the Franklin County gerrymander is absolutely brutal.

True, Rick Neal it is, I suppose.  I haven’t met him, so maybe you’re right.

[junior chįmp]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

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[Jeppe]

Kansas Dem Andrea Ramsey, accused of sexual harassment, will drop out of US House race

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That's too bad, if only male candidates/elected officials were more willing to step aside like her. Looking at you, Kihuen..