Italy 2013: The official thread

[Leftbehind]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

I'd vote SEL anyway (as I've said in the past), but this would be a powerful argument for me.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Since you guys are discussing about which party you support, why don't you go and vote here? https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=167558.0

[Keystone Phil]

What happened in this Berlusconi-Santoro interview? I saw one friend (a Berlusconi critic) say something like Santoro and two others that questioned Silvio allowed themselves to get beat up. Even a sports fan page I "like" on Facebook posted about the interview as an "off topic" subject.

[Andrea]

In the past decade, Santoro's main achievement has probably been helping Berlusconi to gain votes :-(
At least he isn't giving him the excuse to act too much as a victim this time.
Silvio was on top of his form.

[Keystone Phil]

I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.

[Beet]

This election is certainly worrying. I don't know how anyone can still support Berlusconi after all his scandals, and years of misrule. On the other hand, it's true that while the Draghi/Monti regime has stabilized the eurozone situation financially, economically Italy continues to struggle and the Draghi/Monti regime does not offer sufficient hope for growth in the short term. This is a real dilemma, but it would be upsetting to see Berlusconi get back in in any case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Setting aside from political stuff...

Best.
Show.
Ever!

The word "epic" is so often misused that it's important to point out when it is actually approriate. What happened was epic in every possible way. Drama, action, twists, tension, flame wars, fun... Every Italian-speaker should rush to go watch this, because it's more entertaining than the most epic action movie.


In terms of "who won", Berlusconi might have been as good as he wanted (and yes, I admit he was very skillful and energized), but nobody can compete with the determination and wit of Santoro and the intelligence and irony of Travaglio. Yes, Berlusconi was preety good, but not enough to twist the fundamental truth of what they said.

[SPQR]

The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%

Euromedia=Berlusconi,don't get wet.

[SPQR]

I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.

Huh,weren't you anti-Berlusconi just a few months ago?
Thank God people like you can't vote.

[minionofmidas]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.

[minionofmidas]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.

Huh? If the coalition wins it gets 54% of the seats, even if it wins with 33% of the vote. If PD gets ~92% of the coalition votes, it gets a majority of the seats, even if that's on 30% of the vote, no?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Another argument for SEL is of course that of electoral reform. The larger share of the Bersani-Coalition vote that SEL gets, the smaller the risk that PD has their own majority and push through a non-PR election system.*

*Of course this is only if you support Proportional Representation.     

That's an interesting angle I hadn't thought of, yeah.

PD won't win an absolute majority anyway. There aren't many outcomes you can safely exclude, but you can probably exclude this one.

Huh? If the coalition wins it gets 54% of the seats, even if it wins with 33% of the vote. If PD gets ~92% of the coalition votes, it gets a majority of the seats, even if that's on 30% of the vote, no?

92.9% of the coalition vote, yes (316/340). Assuming PD takes 35% (a very generous assumption - they're lucky if they get over 30), that would mean that all the other parties in the left coalition that are represented (probably, SEL plus one of PSI or CD) would have to win less than 2.66% of the vote. That's not going to happen.

[minionofmidas]

'twould take a mass bleeding specifically from SEL to RC. So yeah, I guess you're right. Maybe if they magically switched lead personnel.

[Antonio the Sixth]

'twould take a mass bleeding specifically from SEL to RC. So yeah, I guess you're right. Maybe if they magically switched lead personnel.

Glad to see you recognize that.

[Iannis]

What happened in this Berlusconi-Santoro interview? I saw one friend (a Berlusconi critic) say something like Santoro and two others that questioned Silvio allowed themselves to get beat up. Even a sports fan page I "like" on Facebook posted about the interview as an "off topic" subject.

Santoro had full interest in supprting a Berlusconi's comeback among center-right voters, to fight Monti's side. Santoro and BErlusconi have even many similar opinions about Europe, and share same anti-austerity bullsh**t feelings

[Iannis]

The Italian election Wiki page has finally made their poll table easy to read and the January 10th poll from Euromedia stands out...

IBC - 39%
Center-right - 31%
M5S - 12%
AMI - 11%
RC - 4%
Others - 4%

Mmmh Center-right very high and AMI too low, no poll in Italy show these results.

[Keystone Phil]

I've heard from one PD supporter - one! - that Silvio lost. Looks like the old man is back at it.

Huh,weren't you anti-Berlusconi just a few months ago?
Thank God people like you can't vote.

So people that aren't Berlusconi fans aren't allowed to say he had a good performance? Ok. 

[Keystone Phil]

Nine million watched Berlusconi last night.

[Andrea]

PD, SEL and PSI will run joint lists in Italians Abroad constituencies.
In South America they are allied with AISA (Pallaro.. just go down the memory lane to 2006-08)

[Keystone Phil]

Wasn't that assumed? I'm pretty sure both sides did that in 2008.

[SPQR]

He had a good performance,that's for sure.
It wasn't a talk show,it was a circus,since Santoro allowed him to do and say whatever he wanted.
And Berlusconi fits perfectly well in that kind of environment.

In these next weeks anyway all he can do is revitalize his old base (that is,those who aren't dead yet - considering he does well amongst those 70+yo).

[Andrea]

Wasn't that assumed? I'm pretty sure both sides did that in 2008.

I suppose it was a given in FPTP constituencies. I didn't even consider PSI. I thought SEL could have run in Europe multi members constituencies (especially at the House).
As they put out a press release today to announce the joint list, I just posted it.

[Keystone Phil]

It's fun to watch both sides dismiss Monti as irrelevant...


Angelino Alfano

Il nostro avversario non è Monti, lui si troverà come nei mondiali a disputare una finale per il terzo e quarto posto. La finale vera è tra Berlusconi e Bersani

[Antonio the Sixth]

That seems to be true according to polls...

I'd really like to see Monti displace Berlusconi, since he perfectly represents what honest, well-meaning and serious right-wing politician would be like. However, it's become pretty clear it's not going to happen. Italian right-wingers have been brainwashed for the last 20 years, and they'd follow Berlusconi everywhere even if he was found with 50 dead (and underage) boys.