Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[rob in cal]

    Looks like the ATF projection assumes 700k valid ballots still to be counted, with VDB winning just under 60% of them.

[rob in cal]

   Do any regions/towns stand out for an unusual performance by the candidates?

[rob in cal]

   This might not be too bad for the FPO, as they can stay fully in opposition until the NR vote, and I think the recent asylum law changes was about as much as they could pressure the current parliament to put through, with or without Hofer as president.  The big drama will be if they do win a big victory in the parliamentary election and VDB refuses to swear in a FPO chancellor (though IIRC he did say he wouldn't rule out Strache as vice-chancellor in the last debate).

[rob in cal]

  It would be awesome if VDB would push his support for direct democracy (which both he and Hofer shared apparently) as president and Austria could move closer to the Swiss system.  Then, people could directly vote on key issues and take some of the personal animosities out of the political system. 

[rob in cal]

  If Hofer had won and then used his office to force new elections for the parliament, I wonder if that would have back fired, as it might have created a narrative of "undemocratic" President Hofer trying to subvert the parliament, no Austrian president has ever done this, fascism is near at hand etc etc
Now, the next parliamentary elections if they take place as scheduled would avoid this dynamic, though perhaps by 2018 the FPO might not be as strong as it is now, so that would be the negative for the FPO in this scenario.

[rob in cal]

  I wonder if the relatively large Jewish community in Hungary supports Orban's efforts of not taking any of the migrants, or how the smaller Jewish communities of other eastern European countries feel about their governments being in favor of little or no migrant migration to their countries.

[rob in cal]

  Just read  about the background of VDB and his family history in an article in Der Standard.  His Estonian citizen parents (father of Dutch background I think?) were able to flee Estonia before the Soviets got them in 1940, to the safety (ironic isn't that) of German ruled Austria, and then fled the Red Army again in 45 to Voralberg.  His biography would actually be a nice one for someone on the right of the political spectrum, refugees from Stalin, prominent family in Estonia etc.  I must say I like him more now after reading about this background.

[rob in cal]

    Did VDB discuss his refugee heritage much in the campaign?  I could see how that would have had some poignancy since the current migrant/refugee situation was a big issue in the campaign?
Also, has he ever said whether his family, or at least his father, felt any danger in the immediate aftermath of the war that they would be turned over to the Soviets as part of Operation Keelhaul?
Legally they wouldn't have been in danger of being so, as his father wasn't a Soviet citizen by 1939, but in the confusion and uncertainty of those months, there must have been some uncertainty I would think. 

[rob in cal]

     That is a nice speech.  I like how he calls his victory a tie, acknowledging that basically half the country voted for Hofer.  So often politicians forget that while they've been elected, often giant percentages of people voted for someone else.

[rob in cal]

   In looking over the Vienna results is there anything special about the Neubau, Mariahelfer and Josephstadt districts that make them such a VDB stronghold?  He won them about 80% with a big voter turnout.  They alone accounted for a 25,000 vote victory margin, accounting for most of his overall Austria victory margin.

[rob in cal]

   Did Hofer ever say he wouldn't swear in a Red Green coalition if they had a parliamentary majority?

[rob in cal]

    Is this the first nationwide election in Europe where the clearly identified "right-wing" candidate won such a titantic majority among blue collar workers, over a clearly identified "left-wing" candidate. I believe it was 86-14.  The FPO seems to be developing a strong base among the manual working class, reshaping the old historical idea that the working class=left-wing ideology.  Not the left-wing of the 21st century apparently in Austria at any rate.

[rob in cal]

Right, also Tender the number of non-migration background Austrian workers backing Hofer must have been higher, as workers with a migration background, whatever number that is, would likely not have backed Hofer as highly.

[rob in cal]

  So, is Tender and the FPO in the same boat here, both rooting for early elections?

[rob in cal]

   I have a compromise suggestion.  VDB is sworn in, FPO drops its challenges, but VDB says he will swear in a FPO chancellor if FPO achieves a working NR majority after the next election.

[rob in cal]

   In the US we have judges who are on occasion overthrow the decisions of the electorate, and its almost expected and predictable who those judges are (usually liberal ones who find that conservative electoral outcomes in referenda are in violation of some newly discovered or interpreted constitutional right).

[rob in cal]

   I really hope Hofer gets to serve as one of the three acting presidents for awhile. For the simple reason that when some people mention how Austria almost elected a Nazi in the election, we can say please calm down, he's currently one of the acting presidents, his party is in two state governments, his party was in the national government in the early 2000's, and the whole sky is falling scenario of an eminent 4th Reich about to happen, did not take place.

[rob in cal]

   Of course who knows what will be happening politically by the time the revote takes place. Perhaps there will be a new spike of migrants, or maybe the migrant level will really be stabilizing at the governments new target. The one scenario would help Hofer, the other VDB. 

[rob in cal]

   I like the idea of universal poll closing times.  Wish that was done immediately.

[rob in cal]

    I like limitations on exit polls.  Personally I don't like them at all, as they take a lot of the fun and drama away from the actual vote count itself. 

[rob in cal]

   Tender, one advantage of you going back to precinct voting is that you can give us a little flavor of the voting, less impersonal than just mailing in your ballot.  I vote for Tender to go back to the precinct.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, I read an article about where the Austrian politicians are vacationing around Austria and Europe and was wondering if there is one part of Austria that is especially favored by the Austrian political elite for summer vacations?  From the article it looked like there wasn't currently, but was wondering if there has been one historically?

[rob in cal]

  It would be quite interesting and informative to see a long drawn out court case on whether Hofer is a Nazi, and whether its appropriate to link the FPO to Nazism.  From the article it was hard to tell just how detailed the case in question was, but a real extensive court trial could look over the party platforms and compare the two, and also the experiences of Austria's first national FPO government in coalition with the OVP and see how that compared with Nazism.  Also, the current FPO participation within state governments could be look at. 
   I think the results would be informative and might help to deescalate political passions.

[rob in cal]

   In my scenario it would perhaps grow out of a libel suit, similar to the case that just happened.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, just as the VDB camp hopes to do better in Burgenland, what areas do you think make sense for Hofer to make a strong campaign push in?