The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

AP makes the call, Babin wins 58-42 with 100% in!

State House District 129 goes for Dennis Paul over Sheryl Berg, 52-48 with 100% in!

No call yet on State Senate District 2 - and it's clear why - it's 50-50 with 92% in.

[Miles]

^ Aren't the parts that are left in SD2 friendly to Bob Hall though? Should be enough to carry him.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^ Aren't the parts that are left in SD2 friendly to Bob Hall though? Should be enough to carry him.

Race is in recount territory right now. It's unclear if the uncounted vote will take it out of recount territory.

[Miles]

As usual, maps!

CD4:



Pretty consistent performance by Ratcliffe. Ironically, Hall lost most of the counties he's represented the longest. He got most of his strongest counties as a result of the Delaymander 10 years ago.

CD36:



In contrast to CD4, where there were several close counties, there aren't any bellwether counties here. Streusand got 66% in Harris County. Harris, though, only cast 34% of the district's vote and Babin crushed everywhere else.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Bob Hall won the State Senate District 2 Runoff over Bob Deuell (inc.) by 300 votes. Apparently that's enough to take it out of recount territory, as AP has called the race for Hall!

[Miles]

^ And the map for SD-02



Maps from TX-23

Runoff:



Primary:



2nd place in the primary:

[Miles]

More TX maps.

I did the swing from the TX-04 primary to the runoff. There were really two ways of looking at it.

First, I looked at the Hall vs. Not-Hall vote. In this scenario, Hall gained in most counties. He went from trailing the combined Not-Hall candidates 45.4/54.6 to losing to Ratcliffe 47.2/52.8. Overall, that makes for about a 16% point swing districtwide in Hall's favor:



Next, this is strictly the Hall vs. Ratcliffe numbers. Ratcliffe gained 22 points between the primary and runoff, going from a 16-point loss to 6-point win. The only county that Ratcliffe lost ground in, and only slightly so, was Marion, which he still carried both times anyway.

[Tender Branson]

June 3 results:

Alabama

California

Iowa

Mississippi

Montana

New Jersey

New Mexico

South Dakota

[Gass3268]

I'm most interested in the Mississippi Senate race and the California jungle primaries.

[Maxwell]

John Walsh should win the Montana primary, but it would be fascinating to see the margin.

[IceSpear]

John Walsh should win the Montana primary, but it would be fascinating to see the margin.

I forgot he even still had a primary. Nobody has even bothered to poll it.

[ElectionsGuy]

Crowded primary in AL-6, as well as we should see how Gene Taylor does in MS-4. Next to nothing happening in SD/MT/NM. We shall see if Steve Lonegan wins the NJ-3 primary (if so, good lord!). In Iowa, IA-1 on the democratic side and IA-3 on the republican side are both crowded primaries.

As others have mentioned, MS senate will be the most hotly watched. Iowa senate will be watched to but Ernst will undoubtedly win. And California's top two system should keep things interesting, to say the least.

[Maxwell]

John Walsh should win the Montana primary, but it would be fascinating to see the margin.

I forgot he even still had a primary. Nobody has even bothered to poll it.

Harper had it tied, and PPP had it Walsh +9. Walsh getting the seat probably helped his chances, but it'll be interesting to see how close Bohlinger gets.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Guide for Results Watching/A few predictions:

AL - There's one house primary that's worth your time (I think it's district 6), but other than that, don't waste your time watching this state.
CA - Gubernatorial Jungle Primary is worth your time. Brown will get the first GE slot, but the second is a toss-up between State Assemblyman Tim Donnelly and Financial Secretary Neil Kashkari. Swing U.S. House Districts with contested primaries include districts 7, 10, 21, 25, 26, 31, 36, and 52.
IA - Jacobs is the most electable candidate, but if polling is correct, Ernst will get the needed 35% of the vote to win the senate nomination on Tuesday (if no one ends up getting 35%, it goes to a convention). On the gubernatorial side, Branstad will win the republican nomination, but it'll be interesting to see the margin - Hoefling could end up getting less than 15%.
MS - I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Thomas Delay will get enough votes to force Cochran and McDaniel into a two week runoff campaign.
MT - Walsh should win the primary, but it should be fairly close - within 15 points and maybe even within 10.
NJ - Aside from the 3rd District House Primaries, this state isn't worth your time.
NM - The only thing worth your time is the democratic primary for Governor - which I think Att. General Gary King will win narrowly.
SD - Take a glance at the democratic primary for governor, but the republican senate primary isn't worth your time - Rounds should win the nomination easily.

[Hifly]

Also in Alabama, the Dem primary for House District 54 may be worth a watch; the white ultra-liberal incumbent is being challenged by 2 African-Americans in this Black majority district.

[Maxwell]

I feel like Rounds in South Dakota will probably underwhelm, but will take the nomination with upper 40s or lower 50s.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What's the chance of a repeat of a CA-21 style accident somewhere in a California race?

[Hifly]

I assume you mean CA-31....although an "accident" did happen in CA-21 and the same John Hernandez is running again, so he could play spoiler.

In deep blue CA-33 there's a small chance that no Democrat will get into the top 2. Republican Elan Carr is going to come out on top, but who comes next is anybody's guess. There's 10 Democrats running, and Ted Lieu and Wendy Greuel are considered the strongest among them. However, other Democrats have been spending as well, and this could result in Independent Marianne Williamson (who has also been running a serious campaign) sneaking through and denying Democrats a candidate in November.

Also in CA-31, who comes second after the Republican is also anybody's guess and there's fears that it could be Conservative Democrat Joe Baca (who apparently has no cash and no campaign), but whom Conservative groups have been spending funds promoting, or another Republican.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota Republicans also just held their convention.

Not surprisingly Hennepin County Commissioner Jeff Johnson won the endorsement for Governor. I'd say he's a shoo-in for the nomination, but has no chance in November barring some major shake ups.

Businessman and political novice Mike McFadden won the GOP nod for Senate to face Franken on the 10th ballot. His opponent has promised to abide by the endorsement, while McFadden said he wouldn't, but this means McFadden has all but won the nomination as well. McFadden is one of those generic rich guys who have nothing going for them but that they can spend tons of money candidates, and that won't be enough to beat Franken. Actually his opponent was a St. Louis County Commissioner, so at least he had the strength of being from that region which is normally very DFL. But perhaps the biggest strength of McFadden is that he can throw lots of money at Franken himself meaning the NRSC and basically flat broke Minnesota GOP don't need to worry about fundraising, so I guess that's a big plus.

[ElectionsGuy]

Poll Closing Times (EST)

8:00 PM - AL, MS and NJ
9:00 PM - NM and SD
10:00 PM - IA and MT
11:00 PM - CA

[ElectionsGuy]

I notice there are a lot of house seats that in the general election will be unopposed (not including indies and third parties) this primary season. MS-2, AL-4, AL-5 and AL-7 are just the ones today.

[Flake]

McDaniel is leading 71-26 right now, it's going to tighten as the night goes on, but it's interesting since a few counties have started tracking their results  

[Miles]

The AP has county breakdowns for MS! A nice luxury, as TX last week didn't.

[SWE]

MacArthur leads Lonegan in NJ-3 65-35

[Miles]

FWIW, RRH said not to bother with the SoS sites for MS, NJ or AL.

Stick with the AP or AoSHQDD.