Polls on Same-Sex Marriage State Laws

[Former Moderate]

Yeah, i realized that when I opened that thread afterwards. Thanks, partner!

Why wasn't I surpised Milhouse didn't do something so rational? But I digress.....

dude's usin' an awful lot of thinkpower to keep up his smart gay-marriage-is-tax-fraud argument, and as a result, a lot of his other faculties are diminished. we don't want him spreading himself too thin -- he needs to put his thinkin' where his thinkin' can get its best use: on Internet.

[greenforest32]

More North Carolina numbers

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 32%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 12%

Would you vote for or against a constitutional
amendment to provide that marriage between
one man and one woman is the only domestic
legal union that shall be valid or recognized in
this State?

Would vote for it - 56%
Would vote against it - 34%
Not sure - 10%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_NC_011212.pdf

NC PPP results from December 2011: 30% legal, 57% illegal, 13% not sure
NC PPP results from late October 2011: 31% legal, 59% illegal, 10% not sure
NC PPP results from early October 2011: 30% legal, 63% illegal, 8% not sure
NC PPP results from September 2011: 31% legal, 61% illegal, 8% not sure

[nclib]

It's being threatened in NH.

[Tender Branson]

France:

63% support

http://www.leparisien.fr/societe/les-francais-favorables-au-mariage-gay-14-01-2012-1811697.php

[A cowboy always follows his beard]

Is it legal in France?

[Tender Branson]

Is it legal in France?

I think it's Civil Unions in France, but with almost all the rights like what a Marriage has. It's just not called marriage. But somewhere I have read that these Civil Union laws are so liked that even heteros want to register their relationships in these Civil Unions because they don't want it to be a Marriage ...

Maybe one of the French posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

New Jersey (Quinnipiac):

New Jersey voters support 52 - 42 percent allowing same-sex couples to marry, the first time support tops 50 percent.

On related issues, New Jersey voter opinions are:

    65 - 32 percent that same-sex marriage is not a threat to traditional marriage;
    53 - 45 percent that denying same-sex marriage is discrimination;
    69 - 26 percent support for New Jersey's same-sex civil union law;
    66 - 29 percent support allowing same-sex couples to adopt children.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/new-jersey/release-detail?ReleaseID=1693

...

Maryland (Gonzales Research):

Maryland voters remain divided on the issue of same-sex marriage. Statewide, 49% favor a law allowing same-sex couples to marry (34% “strongly” favor and 15% “somewhat” favor), while 47% oppose same-sex marriage (38% “strongly” oppose and 9% “somewhat” oppose).

62% of Democrats support same-sex marriage, as do 56% of independents. Among Republicans, 76% are opposed to same-sex marriage.

Whites: 55-43 support
Blacks: 33-60 oppose

http://www.gonzalesresearch.com/polls/Maryland%20Poll%20January%202012.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Washington (SurveyUSA):

A new KING 5 poll finds Washington state voters are very divided on the issue of gay marriage.

In a poll of 617 registered voters statewide on landlines and cell phones, KING 5 and SurveyUSA asked specifically, “If the legislature were to approve marriage for same-sex couples, and you were asked to approve or reject the law, how would you vote?”

In our poll, 47% said they would approve the law, while 46% said they would reject it; 7% said they weren’t sure.  The poll has a margin of +/-4%.

Gay marriage supporters are trying to pass a bill through the legislature during this session, but have not secured enough votes in the state senate.  Opponents say if the legislature were to pass a bill, they would collect signatures to force a referendum on the issue.

In the poll, younger voters were far more likely to support gay marriage with 50% saying they’d approve a measure, compared to 39% support among voters over age 65.  While voters in the King, Pierce and Snohomish County region voiced 50% support for a bill, voters in eastern Washington rejected the idea 54% to 38%.

The poll also found women voters more inclined to approve gay marriage (52% to 41% reject) than men (43% to 52% reject).

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-State-divided-over-gay-marriage-137689348.html

[greenforest32]

That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

P.S. - What about the map?

[Tender Branson]

That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

If the polls are this close and it comes to a referendum in WA, MD and ME - it will probably not pass. Because gay marriage has in history always overpolled. Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

P.S. - What about the map?

[Former Moderate]

Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

The problem in New Jersey is that even though support may finally be there in the State Senate -- there are a few Republicans now signed on to support marriage equality -- it still needs to get past Christie's desk. And Christie is a "no" on gay marriage. Maybe.

The Star Ledger suggested a better road may be to just take it to the voters via constitutional amendment since it's clear a majority of the state supports it. The idea really intrigues me, since it's the usual weapon of the "homosexual marriage haters."

[Username MechaRFK]

More prove that women are more progressive then men when it comes to political ideology. I'm guessing most of the male vote are in the 40's-64 and 64-older demographics, though I can't deny that teenage boys still love making politically incorrect statements about referring to one of their dislike as "gay".

[Skill and Chance]

That would be cool if it was passed/upheld in WA, NJ, MD, and ME this year.

If the polls are this close and it comes to a referendum in WA, MD and ME - it will probably not pass. Because gay marriage has in history always overpolled. Could pass in NJ though, but even there I'm not sure.

P.S. - What about the map?

Don't forget that laws that pass with 2/3rds are referendum-proof in most states.  There's talk that 2/3rds is in reach in NJ at the moment.

[asexual trans victimologist]

2/3 is also, of course, veto-proof.

[Skill and Chance]

So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta. 

[asexual trans victimologist]

I think it's probably more likely to be sustained in NJ than in WA or MD, though I'm actually pretty optimistic about all three.

[greenforest32]

So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta.  

I think it's pretty likely Democrats will break the tie in the OR state house and win the state legislature in 2012 but our situation is a little different than Washington's as our ban on gay marriage is constitutional while Washington's is statutory (probably due to the fact that WA doesn't allow for constitutional initiatives[1] and Democrats controlled one/both chambers of the state legislature and never pushed for a constitutional ban like Republicans are doing in MN/NC after finally winning those state legislatures after decades of split control at the best).

That means their state legislature can legalize it on its own, while in Oregon, any change to the state constitution requires a public referendum which means the only way to legalize it is for an initiative (which groups have said they will push for in 2014 after deciding against it in 2012) or the legislature to vote to refer a repeal.

Anyway, it's probably going to pass here in 2013/2014, especially with the momentum of it passing in Washington. I think Illinois and Hawaii will be considering it soon too even though they just recently passed civil unions but that's what you get when you opt for the half-way measure when the issue is progressing so quickly.

[1]:


edit: never mind about the odd-numbered year thing. I'm thinking of some bill that never passed and looking back we've had plenty of measures in odd-numbered years

[Nagas]

Hopefully these polls will be moot once Perry v Schwarzenegger (Brown) hits the SCOTUS and hopefully passes.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

So we will almost certainly have WA and MD pass it this year.  Then I wonder who is next?  DE or RI could try.  I'd imagine Hickenlooper will try to pass it in CO in 2013 if the State House falls back under D control.  Same with OR where Kitzhaber is one seat away from a trifecta. 

California, at the ballot box.

[Username MechaRFK]

Hopefully these polls will be moot once Perry v Schwarzenegger (Brown) hits the SCOTUS and hopefully passes.

[greenforest32]

New Texas numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 29%
Illegal .............................................................. 57%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_TX_0125.pdf

TX PPP results from September 2011: 29% legal, 61% illegal, 10% not sure

New Minnesota numbers:

Do you think same-sex marriage should be legal or illegal?

Legal............................................................... 43%
Illegal .............................................................. 47%
Not sure .......................................................... 10%

Should the Minnesota Constitution be
amended to provide that only a union of one
man and one woman shall be valid or
recognized as a marriage in Minnesota?

Yes - 48%
No - 44%
Not sure - 8%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MN_012712.pdf

MN PPP results from May 2011: 46% legal, 45% illegal, 9% not sure



edit: whoops, typo

[Tender Branson]

I always thought Minnesota was more progressive on these issues ...

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I always thought Minnesota was more progressive on these issues ...

The Midwest has some considerable cultural traditionalism going, for better or worse.

[Dabeav]

Just write up a repeal of marriage licensing in your state and let churches take it over.  You can get married at the First Fabulous Church of His Lord in your area.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Just write up a repeal of marriage licensing in your state and let churches take it over.  You can get married at the First Fabulous Church of His Lord in your area.