The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Mr. Morden]

Walker says he enjoys the speculation that he might run for prez in 2016, because it means he must be doing a good job as governor:

http://www.chron.com/news/article/Walker-enjoys-talk-of-2016-presidential-run-4318017.php

[Mr. Morden]

Condoleezza Rice on whether she'll ever run for office:

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/blog-summaries/285811-rice-dampens-rumors-about-run-for-2016

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[Mr. Morden]

Some news on Schweitzer: That poll of him being ahead in the 2014 Senate race in Montana was posted on his Facebook page, but Schweitzer said it was hist staff who posted it, not him:

http://www.kpax.com/news/poll-schweitzer-would-beat-baucus-in-senate-race/

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Why do you tease us Brian Schweitzer?  He said in the quote above that he would have big news for us in the next week or so, but it's been nearly two weeks, and still nothing.

In any case, I'm guessing that the "big news" is just something like the creation of a PAC.

[Mr. Morden]

Various Wisconsin-based journalists are convinced that Walker is planning to run in 2016 (though I'd still say that he opts out if Ryan runs):

http://host.madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/is-scott-walker-preparing-to-run-for-president/article_7d117bfc-7f90-11e2-8812-001a4bcf887a.html

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[publicunofficial]

I'd say Walker is more likely to run than Ryan. A lot of sources are saying Ryan is interested purely in climbing the House leadership, and was reluctant to even be the VP nominee.


I d on't see Walker making it far in the primary however. He's way too notorious nationally, and would probably put Pennsylvania out of reach for the GOP.

[Likely Voter]

I agree that if Ryan runs again it wont be for a while. And Walker is now a bonafied conservative hero after crushing unions and surviving a recall. I can't see how he doesn't run.

Losing VP candidates have a poor history in getting nominations. The last losing VP candidate to win a nomination was Dole and it took him 3 tries...and he still lost the general. The election after Dole's had  Kemp (a hero of Ryan's) and Quayle who was actually a previous VP as well as a losing VP both get nowhere in 2000. And on the Dem side recent elections show Lieberman and Edwards perform poorly after losing for VP.

[Mr. Morden]

Haslam says he's not running:

http://www.wbir.com/news/article/257917/2/Haslam-says-hes-not-considering-running-for-president-in-2016

[tmthforu94]

Haslam says he's not running:

http://www.wbir.com/news/article/257917/2/Haslam-says-hes-not-considering-running-for-president-in-2016

No!

[RogueBeaver]

Who?

[Mr. Morden]

Who?

Bill Haslam, governor of Tennessee.

In any case, Jeb Bush is out promoting his new book now, and keeps getting asked about 2016.  His answers tend to be along these lines:

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/342186/jeb-bush-2016-ive-decided-not-think-about-it-while-andrew-johnson

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[Mr. Morden]

Rand Paul again says that he's "seriously thinking about running", and that his potential campaign would be different from his father's:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/rand-paul-seriously-weighing-2016-bid-88611.html?hp=t1_3

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What would be most likely to convince Paul *not* to run?  His family:

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[Likely Voter]

What's the deal again with Paul's filing deadlines to keep his Senate seat? Isn't it sometime in Feb? I suspect Paul will run to get into the 2015 debates but he will drop out to keep his Senate seat.

But what if he wins IA and becomes the leading anti-Christie? Imagine if he were in the same situation as Santorum, with a mathematical chance but unlikely to win. Does he still drop out or stay in?

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley to South Carolina on March 23:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/08/2016-watch-omalley-to-stop-in-south-carolina/

though it's not clear if it's the same event I already mentioned here:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164982.msg3638771#msg3638771

What's the deal again with Paul's filing deadlines to keep his Senate seat? Isn't it sometime in Feb? I suspect Paul will run to get into the 2015 debates but he will drop out to keep his Senate seat.

But what if he wins IA and becomes the leading anti-Christie? Imagine if he were in the same situation as Santorum, with a mathematical chance but unlikely to win. Does he still drop out or stay in?

Yes, the filing deadline for that Senate seat is in February 2016, and Paul can't legally run for both prez and senate at the same time.  It violates Kentucky law.  (Rubio and Ryan don't have this problem.  Their filing deadlines for their seats are in June 2016, so they could both run for prez at least until the nomination is decided.  Then if they don't win the nomination, run for reelection for their current seats.)

It's true that Paul could just run to get in the debates, and then drop out when the filing deadline for his Senate seat comes up, but the only candidates who really ever do that sort of thing are folks like Tom Tancredo, who are stuck at 1%.  If Paul does nearly as well as his father did in IA and NH in 2012 (~20% or more of the vote and in the top 3), then he'd look absolutely ridiculous if he bailed on his presidential campaign to run for senate.  How the heck would he explain that to the people who worked on his campaign and donated money to him, if he bailed on the presidential campaign when he's still in the mix?  He'd look foolish.

That's why I think he really has to decide one or the other.  Presidential campaign or senate campaign.  Now sure, if he's mired at 10% or so in the polls and does poorly in both Iowa and NH, then he could drop out and run for Senate.  But if he's still in the mix of the top tier, then it's hard to see him skipping out to remain in the Senate.

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan on FNS: Have no desire to be in elected leadership, would have run "years ago" if he did. Will "never" run for it. Said he enjoyed being on the trail, running for POTUS seemed "more realistic" than previously. Would consider it once he's through this cycle's budget wars. Which come to think of it, is very similar to Tom Cotton's answers on Senate.

[Blackacre]

I think Paul Ryan's just more comfortable in the House than he would be running for POTUS

[Mr. Morden]

Here's the exact quote from Ryan on Fox News Sunday:

http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/fox-news-sunday-chris-wallace/2013/03/10/rep-paul-ryan-previews-his-new-budget-former-gov-jeb-bush-talks-immigration-2016

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[tmthforu94]

http://www.rand-2016.com/standwithrand.aspx?pid=fb

Rand Paul just shared this link on his Facebook page, for what it's worth.

[Mr. Morden]

The Hill on the dance between Bush and Rubio regarding which of them will run:

http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/campaign/287399-jeb-vs-marco-match-up-in-2016-unlikely

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[Mr. Morden]

Walker to Iowa:

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/gov-scottt-walker-to-headline-iowa-gop-fundraiser-f395hch-197989751.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Walker getting more overt about being interested in running:

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/03/walker-opens-up-about-white-house-ambitions-88938.html?hp=t1_3

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Keep in mind, unlike, say, Martin O'Malley, Walker still has to win reelection before the 2016 presidential contest.  Not just that, but win reelection in a swing state.  Normally, in such a circumstance, you'd want to downplay any talk of possibly leaving the job you'll be running for next year.  But Walker is instead being more open about his interest in bigger and better things.

[RogueBeaver]

Doesn't matter because he's a lock in '14 anyways. If Ryan doesn't run he'd probably still be a dark horse despite the national attention. Evangelism would certainly help in Iowa.

Also is it just me or do non-DC presidentiables have a much harder time gaining name ID/traction simply because they're outside DC? Thinking of Jindal and Walker specifically here.

[Mr. Morden]

In his CPAC speech, Carson announced that he was retiring from his medical practice in order to consider other "things that could be done".  He spent his speech continually teasing the audience about a potential run for president.  Last week, he also told NPR that he had no desire to run for Congress:

http://www.npr.org/2013/03/11/174016250/dr-ben-carson-healthcare-is-upside-down

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Prez16 also notes that Carson won't definitively describe himself as a Republican, even though his stated political positions would surely label him as a conservative:

http://www.prez16.com/2013/03/does-ben-carson-belong-on-prez16.html

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[Mr. Morden]

http://therun2016.com/omalley-to-israel/

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[Mr. Morden]

Big news on the Paul front is that an anonymous adviser of his says that they've already started having meetings about a 2016 presidential campaign:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57574780/could-rand-paul-be-the-2016-gop-presidential-nominee/

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Meanwhile in Christie-world, the NJ gov appears to be fundraising like mad, and the speculation is that he wants to run up the score as much as possible in November, so as to show that he's a winner, and wow national donors with his electoral prowess:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-18/christie-hoards-cash-as-rout-key-to-2016-white-house-bid.html

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[RogueBeaver]

Hillary officially announces SSM support. Doubtful her view changed recently.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RP9pbKMJ7c&feature=youtu.be