Canadian by-elections, 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Forum also finds a tightening race in E-L. If the momentum continues, Holyday could lose. He's still at 47 but Milczyn is at 43 from 40.

[lilTommy]

http://www.citynews.ca/2013/07/31/ford-says-if-you-dont-want-to-vote-conservative-vote-ndp-in-byelection/

ummm Ford does NOT like Liberals...
"If you can't vote Conservative, vote NDP"... i really don't want his endorsement of my party

[Holmes]

http://www.citynews.ca/2013/07/31/ford-says-if-you-dont-want-to-vote-conservative-vote-ndp-in-byelection/

ummm Ford does NOT like Liberals...
"If you can't vote Conservative, vote NDP"... i really don't want his endorsement of my party

Literally laughing my ass off.

[adma]

Which means that in Etobicoke-Lakeshore, it's a vote for P.C. either way;-)

[RogueBeaver]

Final Forum polls out.

Windsor-Tecumseh: 52 NDP, 26 PC, 12 OLP

Ottawa South: 52 PC, 36 OLP, 9 NDP.

London West: 38 PC, 36 NDP, 15 OLP

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Forum polls out.

Windsor-Tecumseh: 52 NDP, 26 PC, 12 OLP

Ottawa South: 52 PC, 36 OLP, 9 NDP.

London West: 38 PC, 36 NDP, 15 OLP

sh[inks]t

[Smid]

Final Forum polls out.

Windsor-Tecumseh: 52 NDP, 26 PC, 12 OLP

Ottawa South: 52 PC, 36 OLP, 9 NDP.

London West: 38 PC, 36 NDP, 15 OLP

Are there many young people in London West, which could potentially create a turnout difference in the NDP vote?

Windsor is shaping up to be a pretty hefty swing against the defending party!

[Hatman 🍁]

University is out of session. Probably why the NDP wont do well here. The small student vote in some of the apartment buildings (especially around Billings Bridge, which is a close bus ride to Carleton University) will be non existent.

Anyways, I have my blog post up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2013/07/super-thursday-by-elections-in-ontario.html

I just included the new FR polls and the Corporate Research polls as well.

[RogueBeaver]

No idea, but 308 is of 2 minds on London West. Their turnout model produces a 32% 3-way tie, weighted average gives the PCs a 4-point lead.

[Hatman 🍁]

No idea, but 308 is of 2 minds on London West. Their turnout model produces a 32% 3-way tie, weighted average gives the PCs a 4-point lead.

Grenier is a moron if he thinks it's going to be anywhere close to a 3 way tie.

[RogueBeaver]

Oops, the possible 3-way tie was SG. My bad.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oops, the possible 3-way tie was SG. My bad.

Still, no.

[lilTommy]

If there was a three-way in SG, that would be a huge success for the NDP; might be unlikely but it is looking like a 20+ result AND that's only because its Giambrone. Otherwise i think you'd see the same thing that's happening in EL to happen in SG. (I heard Adam was up 6 points in 6 days... so maybe there is something)
The NDP does also seem to have movement in LW, each poll i see has had Sattler's vote increase. Last i saw was 36%PC vs 30%NDP or something like that. Sattler has momentum (the NDP took out a half page advert in London saying as much, looked amazing if i do say so  
If the NDP can get the vote out strong i think they might take it, but it will be super close, only a few points will separate them.
The Liberals look to be down in the teens in both WT and LW; 26% in OS is a terrible showing for the former premiers seat too. But if they manage to win EL and SG they should be happy.

[Hatman 🍁]

If you want the updated polls, check out my blog I have the most recent ones colour coded for your convenience.

[Hash]

This is going to be a nightmare, and probably the first step in the events which will lead to the election of yet another reactionary government.

[DC Al Fine]

Final Prediction

Ottawa South: PC
Scarborough - Guildwood: Liberal
Etobicoke Lakeshore: PC
London West: NDP
Windsor Tecumseh: NDP

[RogueBeaver]

Final Prediction

Ottawa South: PC
Scarborough - Guildwood: Liberal
Etobicoke Lakeshore: PC
London West: NDP
Windsor Tecumseh: NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

This is going to be a nightmare, and probably the first step in the events which will lead to the election of yet another reactionary government.

Yeah, I kind of hate my riding right now. But for different reasons. 9% for a quality candidate is very sad.

My predictions
Ottawa South: PC (but it will be closer than polls suggest)
Scarborough - Guildwood: Liberal
Etobicoke Lakeshore: flip a coin, really. I guess PC
London West: PC, but wouldn't be surprised if the NDP pulled it off.
Windsor Tecumseh: NDP

[RogueBeaver]

Polls close in 20 minutes.

[adma]

If there was a three-way in SG, that would be a huge success for the NDP; might be unlikely but it is looking like a 20+ result AND that's only because its Giambrone. Otherwise i think you'd see the same thing that's happening in EL to happen in SG. (I heard Adam was up 6 points in 6 days... so maybe there is something)

Not quite sure if that'd be quite the case, mainly because the Grit/Tory contenders in SG aren't quite the oxygen-hoggers that Holyday & Milczyn are.  (Then again, a similar circumstance isn't keeping Funiciello in OS from the polling basement.)

[Hash]

Where will results be posted? I remember from K-W that Elections Ontario is horribly incompetent and that it's tough to find their results application.

[RogueBeaver]

Here.

http://wemakevotingeasy.ca/

[Kevinstat]

1) Is/are there an updated results page(s) ready for these five by-elections? - Okay, I see that question has been answered.  

2) Also, a few pages back, but since these five by-elections had become the main elections du jour of this thread, there was some discussion of the provincial ridings that will be in effect for the next election.  Like one riding was "fools gold" for the NDP but a strong showing could help set them up for the next election when the riding will be better for them (I think that might have been SG where Giambrone is running).  Are the new provincial election districts finalized in Ontario?  Will they be the same as the new federal ridings with/without an exception for Northern Ontario like after the last redistribution?  The federal ridings finalized in Ontario, right?  There was an update on that on either this thread or (more likely) the Canadian General Discussion in the International General Discussion board, so perhaps I'll browse through the last several pages there.  But there might have been updates since then (like more provinces finalized).  And how final is final?  I think the House of Commons has to approve the maps, which is why the proposed abandonment of the "rurban" federal constituencies in Saskatchewan isn't a sure thing.  There was also a minority report that from what I've read was unprecedented, at least in SK and possibly everywhere (ie. most of the time the commissioners are eventually able to come to an agreement or the person(s) on the losing side go along with the majority out of custom or something).

3) As Ontario currently has a minority government, it might be worth knowing what the rough time is after which an election called would use the new lines.  Perhaps that date has already passed, which would mean the new lines have definitely been finalized.

Okay, that's enough for now.

[RogueBeaver]

Here's a better results page from the Globe- and polls are now closed. Can't find a CBC one, which I'd prefer for the maps.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/live-election-results-from-ontario-by-elections/article13560878/

[RogueBeaver]

Here's Elections Ontario.

http://electionnightresults.elections.on.ca/rr/welcome.jsp