The 2014 primary season ends (Sept. 9: DE, MA, NH, NY, RI)

[cinyc]

AP gives Palazzo the check.

There were only 206 uncounted ballots from 8 supposed bad precincts.  Not enough to put Palazzo under 50%.

[Miles]

Palazzo vs. McDaniel. Palazzo did better in the blue counties. I excluded Clarke County because it only has a handful of precincts in the district (though they saved Palazzo ).

[cinyc]

Vote changes in Carroll, Hinds, Itawamba and Simpson counties shrink McDaniel's lead to 1,579. 

There are still supposedly 4 Hinds precincts out.  If one of them is Clinton 2, it had  2,620 registered voters on general election day 2013 and voted overwhelmingly Republican in local races.

[Miles]

This is why McDaniel leads overall while only carrying CD4:

[cinyc]

Vote changes in Lowndes and Warren counties shrink McDaniel's lead to 1,454.  I'm not sure what these votes are, but they have tended to be very Cochran heavy - in some counties, almost 70-30.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Rankin County is all in now, and Cochran narrowly won it, 50-49 percent.

Still a few precincts out in Hinds county, but Cochran is winning by a wide margin there. Everything else is in. 49.5 to 49.0 McDaniel. AP still hasn't officially projected a runoff though.

[Del Tachi]

This is why McDaniel leads overall while only carrying CD4:

I wonder why the SIG didn't do a map showing the size of the difference of votes between the two candidates.  Much would be appreciated if they did.

[cinyc]

Forrest, Madison and Oktibbeha counties with updated numbers shrinks McDaniel's lead to 1,362.  

If there are 3,000 votes outstanding, Cochran needs about 73% of them to pull into the lead.  Definitely possible, since Hinds was one of his best counties and whatever these new numbers are, they are typically coming in more pro-Cochran than the county average.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Forrest, Madison and Oktibbeha counties with updated numbers shrinks McDaniel's lead to 1,362.  

If there are 3,000 votes outstanding, Cochran needs about 73% of them to pull into the lead.  Definitely possible, since Hinds was one of his best counties and whatever these new numbers are, they are typically coming in more pro-Cochran than the county average.

So, Cochran could get to 50% of the vote still?

[cinyc]

Forrest, Madison and Oktibbeha counties with updated numbers shrinks McDaniel's lead to 1,362.  

If there are 3,000 votes outstanding, Cochran needs about 73% of them to pull into the lead.  Definitely possible, since Hinds was one of his best counties and whatever these new numbers are, they are typically coming in more pro-Cochran than the county average.

So, Cochran could get to 50% of the vote still?

Probably not.  But Cochran can pull ahead of McDaniel in the overall tally.

[Del Tachi]

Forrest, Madison and Oktibbeha counties with updated numbers shrinks McDaniel's lead to 1,362.  

If there are 3,000 votes outstanding, Cochran needs about 73% of them to pull into the lead.  Definitely possible, since Hinds was one of his best counties and whatever these new numbers are, they are typically coming in more pro-Cochran than the county average.

If Cochran does manage to pull back into the lead, that would be especially embarrassing for Club for Growth who called on Cochran to drop-out this morning.

I could see the MS Conservative PAC ad now:

"Club for Growth called on Thad Cochran to drop-out of the election even though more Mississippians voted for him than Chris McDaniel.  Don't sell Mississippi's senate seat to these outside groups...blah, blah, blah"

[Miles]

Well, there it is. AP officially calls a runoff.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

[Never]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

Awesome!

[Miles]

This is why McDaniel leads overall while only carrying CD4:

I wonder why the SIG didn't do a map showing the size of the difference of votes between the two candidates.  Much would be appreciated if they did.

This isn't an elevation map like that, but if it helps, here's an interactive heat map of the absolute vote difference. Its with 97% reporting, so it may be slightly off, but its just a pain to update the numbers (the AP result format isn't particularly Excel-friendly):

[Del Tachi]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

Maybe that's a more democratic system considering that the primary vote was almost 65% Republican-leaning.  

[cinyc]

The AP finally fixed the Wilkinson County tally, netting McDaniel another 27 votes.  A change in Stark netted Cochran 3.  The third Republican, Carey, actually lost 44 votes from the two counties.  The margin is now 1,386.

Chliders won the Democratic primary in Wilkinson County with 48% of the vote.

One thing that the AP tally doesn't include is write-ins.  Rankin County's write-ins were .15% of the total.  That might have mattered were the candidates closer to 50% without write-ins.

[cinyc]

The AP is now reporting Hinds fully in with no change to the numbers.  There was a change to the Hinds numbers a few hours ago with no change to the precinct reporting total.  If all Hinds is truly in, McDaniel is ahead by 1,386, pending any affidavit ballots.  So much for the Cochran camp's claim that they were ahead with Hinds.

[IceSpear]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

I doubt Dems would've had a very good chance anyway in a midterm year, considering the combined GOP vote there is ~65%. CA-31 would've been the true kick in the nuts.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

R+3 CA-25 just became safe R thanks to the idiotic top two system. Yup, 2 Republicans on the November ballot.

http://vote.sos.ca.gov/returns/us-rep/district/25/

Maybe that's a more democratic system considering that the primary vote was almost 65% Republican-leaning.  

Not really since Democratic turnout is always far higher in the actual election.  Republicans led by like 70-30 here last time, but McKeon only won by nine or ten points in the GE, IIRC.

[RogueBeaver]

One GOP operative says he wishes Cochran hadn't run or McDaniel had won outright, compares Cochran to Lugar and Bennett. Cochran didn't ask Hatch for his advice. NRSC is likely to only loan infrastructure, not money.

[RogueBeaver]

Cochran campaign is angry at Molly Ball.

[Miles]

Not suspicious at all.

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[Morning in Atlas]

Rogers, you magnificent bastard.

Hope he tries again in 2016.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

With every single precinct now in, the primary finishes at 49.5 to 49.0 McDaniel. Get ready for a nasty runoff.

Cochran should worry - Larry Sabato just updated his ratings, and MS-Sen has been shifted from Safe R to Likely R - with a primary rating of Lean McDaniel.

Other rating changes based on last night's results include:
CA-26 from Likely D to Leans D
CA-25 from Leans R to Safe R
IA-4 from Safe R to Likely R
IA-2 from Safe D to Likely D
NJ-3 from Toss-Up to Leans R