Era of the New Majority

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Texas

Presidential: Cruz sees a substantial home-state advantage, winning 60-38 and cleaning up in the Dallas and Houston suburbs, which sees record Republican turnout.

TX House: The entire delegation is returned - Pete Gallego narrowly loses his rematch with Rep. Will Hurd.

TX Legislature: Republicans pick up one seat in the Senate, expanding their majority to 21-10, while the House remains 98-52 with no change.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 219
Cruz/Portman: 162

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

New Mexico

Presidential: With home-state Senator Marty Heinrich on the ballot, the Clinton/Heinrich ticket carries New Mexico 56-42 in a blowout, carrying every CD and all but two counties.

NM House: All House incumbents are reelected.

NM Legislature: The House switches back to the Democrats as they pick up 6 seats from the GOP to earn a 39-31 advantage. The Democrats gain three Senate seats to expand their majority to 28-14.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 222
Cruz/Portman: 162

Colorado

Presidential: Clinton, not regarded as the ideal Democratic candidate for Colorado, benefits from Cruz being her opponent, who is possibly the worst Republican fit for the state. Clinton wins 53-45, an 8-point margin, carrying the Democratic Denver region despite furious campaigning in the state by Cruz, Rand Paul and Cory Gardner. When Colorado is called for Clinton, the election was effectively called for her as well.

CO Senate: Michael Bennet faces the COGOP's second straight high-level candidate as Mike Coffman enters the race. Though the race is expected to be tight, Bennet avoids any serious gaffes and ties Coffman to Cruz, who is very unpopular in the state. Bennet winds up outperforming Clinton, winning 55-44 in a surprisingly comfortable margin in the swing state.

CO-3: Lieutenant Governor Joseph Garcia enters the race and despite being initially seen as an underdog defeats three-term Rep. Scott Tipton 51-49 in a close and heated race. D+1.

CO-5: Retired military officer Irv Halter runs against Doug Lamborn again, and though he narrows the margin is once again unable to unseat Lamborn in Colorado's most conservative district.

CO-6: With Coffman running for Senate, 2014 candidate Andrew Romanoff enters once again and faces former GOP State Rep. Spencer Swalm. Romanoff wins easily after Swalm commits a gaffe-filled, awkward campaign. D+1.

CO Legislature: Democrats retake the Senate by winning one seat, holding a 18-17 advantage. Democrats then expand their House majority to 38-27, giving them unified control of state government once again.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 162

[Skill and Chance]

Great scenario!  So in the PV this is looking in line with Obama's 53/46 win in 2008 so far (NY and TX would roughly cancel out).  Although I could easily see Clinton getting mid to high 60's in CA and/or winning FL by 8-10% given the results in the Northeast, which would make it more like 54/45.

[KingSweden]

Great scenario!  So in the PV this is looking in line with Obama's 53/46 win in 2008 so far (NY and TX would roughly cancel out).  Although I could easily see Clinton getting mid to high 60's in CA and/or winning FL by 8-10% given the results in the Northeast, which would make it more like 54/45.

Thanks for reading! Yeah, we're looking at roughly 55-45 or 54-45, with Clinton's strength in the Midwest compensating for Cruz's strength in the South.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Wyoming

Presidential: Cruz wins the state without any serious opposition, carrying it 67-31. It is his largest margin after Idaho.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 165

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Well, Cruz is toast. Looking forward to what's in store post-election though, and where the Republicans go from there.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Montana

Presidential: Another close one in Montana, surprising many who thought Hillary was a uniquely poor fit for the libertarian-ish Big Sky State. Cruz wins, but only wins 51-47, a stunningly narrow result for a state largely regarded as safe. Martin Heinrich stages several campaign events in the state, particularly in Missoula, Bozeman and Billings.

MT Governor: Regarded as the weakest incumbent Democrat, Steve Bullock runs a bipartisan, positive campaign and defeats State Rep. Champ Edmunds 54-46 in a surprisingly wide margin after top-tier candidate AG Tim Fox decides to seek reeleciton and US Rep. Ryan Zinke declines a bid.

MT Row Officers: Tim Fox is easily reelected as AG over Dem State Rep. Chuck Hunter. 32-year old State Rep. Bryce Bennett is elected Secretary of State, becoming Montana's first openly-gay winner of a statewide office. State Auditor Monica Lindeen runs for Superintendent of Public Instruction, defeating Amanda Curtis in the primary, while current Superintendent Denise Juneau runs for State Auditor. Both win the office.

MT-AL: Zinke faces a surprisingly well-funded and spirited challenge from retiring SOS Linda McCulloch. The state's partisan lean helps Zinke over the line to win 54-45, though nobody denies that he was caught unprepared and flat-footed by the seriousness of her challenge.

MT Legislature: Democrats pick up two Senate seats to narrow the GOP majority to 27-23, and pick up four seats in the Montana House to cut the GOP advantage to 55-45.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 168

Idaho

Presidential: Cruz's largest victory by percentage, winning 70-28, a forty-two percent margin. It is the only state in which Republicans break 70% of the vote.

ID Sen: Mike Crapo, despite running for reelection, faces Raul Labrador in the primary. After initially signalling he would stay in, Crapo retires instead after polls show Labrador far ahead of him. Labrador wins easily in the general election over a Boise City Councilman.

ID-1: With Labrador retiring, the primary becomes a free-for-all on the GOP side. Coeur d'Alene state senator Bob Nonini advances to the general after three Boise-area candidates cannibalize the vote in the southern part of the district while he focuses his campaign on running up the score in his home region. He cruises to election in the general.

ID Legislature: No net change in either chamber, with Democrats and Republicans exchanging a seat each in the House.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 172

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Utah

Presidential: Cruz wins the state 65-33, a far cry from the '04 highs posted by fellow Texan George W. Bush or the '12 totals of the Mormon Romney. Still, it's one of his highest vote totals after Idaho and Wyoming.

UT Governor: Jim Matheson announces he is challenging Gary Herbert. Though Herbert is favored throughout the race, Matheson performs admirably, holding Herbert to a 55-44 margin and winning several counties while Clinton is being pasted at the top of the ticket.

UT Senate: Mike Lee faces a wild GOP primary. He runs as an ally of Cruz, who by the time of the primary is nearly guaranteed the nomination, but is knocked out by Josh Romney, who defeats him with enough votes to guarantee they will not have to go to convention. Romney cites his reason for challenging Lee as "we need people who will work for Utah, not work for their email list." Lee is one of only two incumbent Republicans defeated in a primary challenge (more on that soon). Romney easily wins the general election, 70-30, over token Democratic opposition.

UT-4: Mia Love is knocked off in a primary by Stephen Sandstrom, who runs at her from the left as a "businessman and consensus-builder." Sandstrom easily dispatches Doug Owens in the general to hold the seat for Republicans. Love was considered safe going into the election, and ran an awful primary campaign. It is revealed after the election that many establishment GOP types encouraged Sandstrom to enter the race out of worries that Owens could beat Love with Presidential-year turnout.

UT Legislature: GOP drops three seats in the House to fall to a still-daunting 58-17 majority, and drop one seat in the Utah Senate to fall to a 23-6 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 231
Cruz/Portman: 178

[Person Man]

Did you do Florida, yet? Will be really neat to see what happens in Arizona and Nevada.

[Skill and Chance]

Just a small nitpick with NM. In 2008 Obama won it 57/42 and McCain still won NM-02 50/49, so it would probably take something like 59/39 for Clinton/Heinrich to carry all 3 CD's.

[Person Man]

Just a small nitpick with NM. In 2008 Obama won it 57/42 and McCain still won NM-02 50/49, so it would probably take something like 59/39 for Clinton/Heinrich to carry all 3 CD's.

Yeah. I would say that Clinton would get to like 58% with Heinrich in a 6 or 7-point national victory.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Lee and Love both gone? This is not a good day for Utah

Did you do Florida, yet? Will be really neat to see what happens in Arizona and Nevada.

Also looking forward to what happens in these states, as well as AK.

[Enderman]

Utah
Lee is one of only two incumbent Republicans defeated in a primary challenge (more on that soon).

Oh no. Please don't be who I think it is.

[KCDem]

Makes no sense for Idaho to be Cruz's best state. If a mormon (Romney) couldn't come close to 70%, it ain't happening for a Canadian.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Florida

Presidential: The killing blow to the Cruz campaign strikes in Florida. Hillary carries the state 54-45, the widest margin by a Democrat in decades, as Cruz flounders in South Florida and Orlando despite being Cuban American. Many pundits cite Fidel Castro's death and the graying of the anti-Castro set as contributing to the decline in GOP numbers among Cuban Americans. When Florida is called for Hillary - painfully early for the Cruz campaign - the election was essentially over.

FL Senate: It's not all bad news for the GOP, however - FL Dems gonna FL Dem, after all. Rubio, after avoiding a major primary challenge, faces Debbie Wasserman-Schultz in the general election. DWS is, as most would expect, a disastrous candidate and Rubio escapes with a 54-45 win, exactly mirroring Hillary's margin.

FL-02: One of the top GOP pickup opportunities in the country, the GOP nominates Halsey Beshears to take on Gwen Graham. Graham is prepared for all comers, however, and defeats Beshears 52-47 to hold the seat.

FL-07: John Mica retires after 12 terms in the House. State Rep. Jason Brodeur enters the race on the GOP side to face fellow State Rep. Randolph Bracy. Despite the suburban district's GOP lean, the strength of Democrats in central Florida edges Bracy past Brodeur, helping continue the gradual movement of Central Florida towards the D column. D+1.

FL-13: David Jolly is challenged by Charlie Justice, who passed on taking on Jolly in 2014. With Justice entering the race, Bill Young's widow decides not to run and endorses Justice. The Florida Dems make this seat their top priority, and for once don't blow the election completely. Justice rides the Clinton wave to knock off the freshman Jolly 51-49. D+1.

FL-18: Patrick Murphy is reelected over a local real estate investor with a 57-42 margin, his largest yet.

FL-23: With DWS retiring to run for Senate, State Rep. Evan Jenne steps up to run instead. Jenne easily wins in this heavily Democratic district after surviving a tough primary in which his father's legal troubles become a campaign issue.

FL-26: First-term Rep. Carlos Curbelo is challenged by State Sen. Dwight Bullard. Though Curbelo runs to the middle hoping to save his seat, Bullard wins by a surprising 53-46 margin to put the seat back in Democratic hands. D+1.

Florida Legislature: Florida Democrats have one of their best cycles in recent memory, taking twelve seats despite unfavorable maps in the House to slash the GOP advantage to 70-50. In the Senate, Democrats snag three seats to improve to 23-17.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 260
Cruz/Portman: 178

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Arizona

Presidential: Clinton keeps it competitive, with record Hispanic turnout nearly snaking the state from Republicans. Cruz only wins 50-48 and only crosses the 50% mark by 2,000 votes in a state regarded as Safe R for much of the election. He is saved by decent turnout in the conservative suburbs.

AZ Senate: Despite a furious campaign, John McCain is DEFEATED in the GOP primary by David Schweikert, with many Arizona Republicans finding him both insufficiently conservative or too old or both. Democrats are ready to pounce, however, with Kyrsten Sinema jumping into the race just before filing deadline and the field is cleared on her behalf - Phoenix Mayor Greg Stanton decides not to run once Sinema enters. With the very right-wing Schweikert winning the primary, many moderate Republicans swing instead to the moderate Democrat Sinema and on the heels of the record Hispanic turnout buoying Democrats and without antipathy to Obama bringing them down, Sinema is elected as the first female Senator from Arizona. D+1. (Democrats have now won 8 Senate seats, matching their 2008 total).

AZ-6: With Schweikert retiring to run for Senate, Ben Quayle reemerges as the consensus choice to run and defeats Harry Mitchell, who Schweikert defeated in the old 5th. The race is referred as the "has-been, also-ran contest," and Quayle wins handily in this heavily Republican district to return to the House after a four-year absence.

AZ-9: Sinema is replaced by David Schapira, who runs against former Mesa Mayor and candidate for Governor Scott Smith. Though Smith is favored for a GOP pickup, Schapira edges him 52-48. Smith announces that he is retiring from politics afterwards.

All other members of the House delegation are easily reelected.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 260
Cruz/Portman: 189

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Nevada

Presidential: Clinton wins Nevada 54-44 over Cruz. Cruz is unable to overcome deep mistrust towards him amongst both Hispanic voters and Las Vegas moderates and is pasted in southern Nevada, whereas he wins over 70% of the vote in the northern part of the state.

NV Senate: Governor Brian Sandoval challenges Reid and neither faces any primary opposition. The unpopular Reid revs up his infamous political machine but finds that few of his attacks can stick to the popular Sandoval, who runs a sunny, positive campaign on his accomplishments after vetoing several overly conservative pieces of legislation and keeping the Assembly in check for two years. In one of the stunners of the election, despite his party winning 8 Senate seats and Clinton romping nationwide atop the ticket, Reid is defeated 53-46. R+1. (Democrats have netted 7 seats now).

NV-3: Joe Heck narrowly survives against a Las Vegas businessman and realtor, winning by only 3,000 votes.

NV-4: Steven Horsford blows out Cresent Hardy to retake his old House seat. D+1.

NV Assembly: Democrats retake the Senate by picking up 1 seat to mirror the old GOP advantage of 11 to 10. Democrats also retake the House, seizing seven seats to see a 24-18 majority.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 266
Cruz/Portman: 189

[badgate]

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

[Mehmentum]

So it looks like North Carolina will be the only state to flip from 2012 to 2016, though there's a lot of movement in the margins of victory.

[Person Man]

Things just might be that polarized.

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Oregon

Presidential: Clinton easily wins Oregon as the D winning streak in the state continues, taking 55% of the vote to Cruz's 39%, with a local Green candidate taking 3% of the state's vote.

OR Senate: Ron Wyden faces no serious opposition in either the primary or general elections, cruising to a 61-48 win over a Some Guy Republican.

OR-4: Peter DeFazio, dean of the Oregon delegation, announces his retirement. He is replaced by 43-year old State Sen. Chris Edwards, who defeats fellow State Sen. Jeff Kruse of Roseburg.

OR-5: Kurt Schrader announces his retirement early in the cycle, when it appears that Democrats have little chance of regaining the majority. In his swing district, he is replaced by 36-year old State Rep. Brent Barton, who defeats Canby Senator Alan Olsen 52-46, a surprisingly large margin in what is considered western Oregon's most competitive seats.

All other incumbents are easily reelected.

OR Row officers: Treasurer Ted Wheeler, AG Ellen Rosenblum and SOS Kate Brown are all reelected handily.

OR Assembly: Democrats maintain their 18-12 advantage in the Senate and increase their House majority to 37-23.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 273
Cruz/Portman: 189

Clinton now has attained enough electoral votes to be elected the 45th President of the United States.

[KingSweden]

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

McSally reelected.

[KingSweden]

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

McSally is reelected here, Ann Kirkpatrick is reelected too.

[badgate]

Arizona 2 is one of the closest districts in the country, can we have results for there too?

McSally reelected.

:,(

[KingSweden]

United States elections, 2016

Washington

Presidential: Clinton blows out Cruz in the Evergreen state, winning 59% of the vote - a modern record for a Democrat in the state, the most won there since 1964. Cruz is cited as being a particularly awful fit for the state, with even nominally GOP suburbs in the Seattle and Portland areas swinging hard against him. Cruz only manages 38% of the vote.

WA Governor: The GOP gets a top-tier recruit in this race in U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert. However, incumbent Jay Inslee ties Reichert to the unpopular GOP Congress and the unpopular Cruz, saying, "Dave Reichert plans to bring his radical Ted Cruz conservatism to Washington." Despite Reichert's efforts to portray himself as a moderate, Inslee lists the policy agenda of the GOP-led Senate, telling Seattle-area voters, "Don't give Ted Cruz a footsoldier in the Governor's mansion" and "Don't let the rural conservatives tell King County what it can and can't do." It is one of the most negative gubernatorial races in the country. Inslee winds up winning anyhow, 54-45.

WA Row Officers: Scandal-plagued Lieutenant Governor Brad Owen, a 20-year incumbent, retires and is replaced by Senate Minority Leader Sharon Nelson, who defeats GOP State Rep. Jay Rodne. Attorney General Bob Ferguson cruises to reelection over King County Prosecutor Dan Satterberg, who was only reluctantly recruited into running. SoS Kim Wyman, the only Republican statewide officeholder, easily wins reelection over an accountant. Mike Kreidler and Troy Kelley are easily reelected as State Insurance Commissioner and State Auditor, respectively.

Republicans do score two pickups in statewide offices, however. Jim McIntire retires as State Treasurer to take a position at a Seattle think-tank. State Senator Steve Litzow, facing a tough reelection campaign, instead jumps into the Treasurer race and defeats State Senator Dave Frockt to pick up the office. Peter J. Goldmark announces his retirement as Commissioner of Public Lands and is replaced by former GOP State Senator John Smith from Northport, who defeats a Weyerhauser executive for the spot. Republicans now control 3 partisan statewide offices compared to four for the Democrats.

WA Senator: Unlike 2004 and 2010, the GOP is unable to find/persuade anyone to take on the quixotic task of trying to take down the powerful Patty Murray. The only Republican who steps forward to take on the task is State Senator Doug Ericksen, not up for reelection until 2018 and thus not at risk of losing his seat. The very conservative Ericksen, hailing from Whatcom County and not the Seattle area, fails to attract much support from state or national GOP groups more focused on protecting vulnerable incumbents and runs a low-wattage, gaffe-filled campaign. Murray crushes Ericksen 62-38 in the general, taking two Eastern WA counties and losing only Lewis County on the west side of the Cascades.

WA-1: Highly-regarded State Senator Andy Hill challenges Suzan DelBene. Thought to be a top-tier race with Hill in the race, DelBene defeats him by ten points in the primary and then wins 56-44 in the general to win a third full term.

WA-3: Jamie Herrera Beutler finally attracts the A-list challenger Democrats have been waiting for when Vancouver Mayor Tim Leavitt jumps into the race to challenge her. Though Herrera Beutler is a strong candidate in her district, the top-ticket races help carry Leavitt over the line in the general and he wins the R-leaning district 51-49. D+1.

WA-8: With an open seat, there is a wide-open race to replace six-term Rep. Reichert. Three Republicans, Rep. Chad Magendanz and former State Senator and Gubernatorial and Senatorial candidate Dino Rossi, enter the race from the West side while Rep. Brad Hawkins enters from Wenatchee. Democrats nominate only State Senator Mark Mullet, who gives up his Senate seat to make the run. Mullet and Hawkins, considered the weakest of the three, advance to the general election where Mullet wins 52-48, the first Democrat to ever represent the 8th District and the first Democrat to represent a district with counties east of the cascades since the early 1990s. D+1.

All other House incumbents are easily reelected.

WA Legislature: Democrats hold Mullet's empty seat and win three additional Senate seats to win back the Senate, now holding a 27-22 advantage as Tim Sheldon returns to the Democratic caucus, now declaring his party registration as independent. Democrats win eight seats in the House, all of them in the Puget Sound region, to take a 59-39 advantage. The Legislature is once again under full Democratic control.

Electoral Vote Count:

Clinton/Heinrich: 283
Cruz/Portman: 189