UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

My usual rule of thumb is that people who use the term Zionist outside of the direct context of Israel-Palestine are being anti semitic, because it feeds into the notion that Israel literally controls the actions of the US, the UK and other parts of the international community. The country is probably more powerful than most of its size in terms of lobbying power, but it isn't this Machiavellian power centre for the world elite that chooses leaders around the world like some imply. If anything, the US has far more control over Israeli politics and decisions than vice versa.

[Silent Hunter]

Indeed... those moaning about the power of the 'Israel lobby' frankly just need to get a better lobby of their own.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He's actually got a pretty... aaah... questionable... history as regards the other matter as well. So perhaps he speaks for himself on both counts: fascinating.

[DaWN]

A few observations:

Generally a bad result for everyone involved.
Labour: Well they won, so probably the happiest of the lot, but winning a seat they need to be the largest party with 30% of the vote against split opposition isn't hugely encouraging. I'm sure some of our friends on socialist Twitter are claiming this is as the greatest triumph since 1917 though.
Brexit: There are three constants in life: death, taxes, and The Traitor failing to get himself or his cronies elected to parliament. Glad they failed the expectations game as miserably as the failed the actual vote
Tories: Says a lot that a semi-marginal third place is considered a very good result for them. Poor, but given how bad things are right now, probably better than it could have been.
Lib Dem: Hoo boy. Look, I get it wasn't a great seat for them, and they did have a good increase in their vote share... but 12% is a bit sh!t. I just can't shake off the feeling that putting all our 'sensible centrist not f!cking insane' eggs inside the Lib Dem basket is going to backfire very badly. People just don't trust them. Sorry. I think something else could have done better (but given how that worked out when they tried 'something else', maybe not.)
Green: No deposit for you amigo
Everyone else: whocare

A thoroughly depressing result for a number of reasons, but hey, at least Brexit didn't win. Thank heavens for microscopically small mercies

[CumbrianLefty]

On the "everyone else" point, the full might of Change UK was placed behind the Renew candidate here.

They got 45 votes.

[YL]

On the "everyone else" point, the full might of Change UK was placed behind the Renew candidate here.

They got 45 votes.

I know an announcement was made that they were supporting Renew, but did they actually campaign for them in any meaningful sense?  Indeed, did anyone campaign for Renew in any meaningful sense?

(Actually, I see on their website that they had a "Peterborough Victory Fund" (sic).  So it looks like they did try something...)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Raw Labour totals at all Labour defences of the past few parliaments:

Livingston - 12,319 (W)
Dunfermline & West Fife - 10,591 (L)
Ealing Southall - 15,188 (W)
Sedgefield - 12,528 (W)
Crewe & Nantwich - 12,679 (L)
Glasgow East - 10,912 (L)
Glenrothes - 19,946 (W)
Norwich North - 6,243 (L)
Glasgow North East - 12,231 (W)
Oldham East & Saddleworth - 14,718 (W)
Barnsley Central - 14,724 (W)
Leicester South - 19,771 (W)
Inverclyde - 15,118 (W)
Feltham & Heston - 12,639 (W)
Bradford West - 8,201 (L)
Cardiff South & Penarth - 9,193 (W)
Croydon North - 15,898 (W)
Manchester Central - 11,507 (W)
Middlesbrough - 10,201 (W)
Rotherham - 9,966 (W)
South Shields - 12,493 (W)
Wythenshawe & Sale East - 13,261 (W)
Heywood & Middleton - 11,633 (W)
Oldham West & Royton - 17,209 (W)
Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough - 14,087 (W)
Ogmore - 12,383 (W)
Tooting - 17,894 (W)
Batley & Spen - 17,506 (W)
Copeland - 11,601 (L)
Stoke-on-Trent Central - 7,853 (W)
Lewisham East - 11,033 (W)
Newport West - 9,308 (W)
Peterborough - 10,484 (W)

Critical things to understand here are that turnout was (for a by-election) decent - though not spectacular - at Peterborough and that it isn't a small constituency. Normally where that is the case, you would want (if you were Labour) at least 12,000 votes to feel sure that you've won if another party had put in any effort at all; Crewe and Nantwich was a standout exception at the other end, as turnout was very high for a by-election (nearly 60%). We can go further: ordinarily, if one had polled c. 10,500 defending Peterborough a defeat would be expected, perhaps even by a few thousand votes. Labour will have known before a vote was counted that they were well short of 12,000, which would explain why Labour sources were gloomy early on. Considered like that, this result is a really stunning failure by the Brexit Party: this was an open goal, and they kicked the ball well wide.

[adma]

Somehow, my feeling is that this will be "peak Brexit Party", unless there's another opening very soon in a yet more "obvious" seat.

[Oryxslayer]

Somehow, my feeling is that this will be "peak Brexit Party", unless there's another opening very soon in a yet more "obvious" seat.

I get this feeling as well. Boris is the man to beat right now for the Tory leadership, and if he or another suicidal brexiteer takes control they probably pull a good chunk of the Brexit voters into their camp.

[CumbrianLefty]

And when no deal is the predicted fiasco and the then PM has to go cap in hand to Brussels?

Then the Brexit Party is back in business.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

And when no deal is the predicted fiasco and the then PM has to go cap in hand to Brussels?

Then the Brexit Party is back in business.

Can't barrage the Farage!

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

Not really. It's more like Trump losing Southern Illinois - it's territory he should win, but it has different roots.

Neither region Western Nebraska or Southern Illinois is well defined. Based on a persons definition of those regions, Trumps performance can vary heavily.

[Walmart_shopper]

My usual rule of thumb is that people who use the term Zionist outside of the direct context of Israel-Palestine are being anti semitic, because it feeds into the notion that Israel literally controls the actions of the US, the UK and other parts of the international community. The country is probably more powerful than most of its size in terms of lobbying power, but it isn't this Machiavellian power centre for the world elite that chooses leaders around the world like some imply. If anything, the US has far more control over Israeli politics and decisions than vice versa.

This sounds right to me.  The genuinely anti-Semitic characters enjoy harping about Zionists within contexts that actually have very little relation to Zionism. That's a red flag. But I can't imagine the moral stupidity required to think that people are anti-Semites simply because they find repulsive the sort of Zionism that predominates in Israel today and guides most of its very objectionable policies. It's so Orwellian. Do many Jew-haters obsess about Israel and the moral problems with Zionism? Yeah. But, so? To make any criticism of Zionism prime facie evidence of Zionism is to shut down very important  debates and in the process make the conspiratorial silliness of anti-Semites seem less silly and less anti-Semitic. It is a profound own-goal for those who commendably reject genuine anti-Semitism.

[parochial boy]

This is like trump losing western Nebraska

Not really. It's more like Trump losing Southern Illinois - it's territory he should win, but it has different roots.

Neither region Western Nebraska or Southern Illinois is well defined. Based on a persons definition of those regions, Trumps performance can vary heavily.

Crabcacke wrote a good post here about the relationship between UK and US a political geography that I think you guys might appreciate

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Thought I’d share this post here as well.

Given that a Brecon + Radnorshire recall is fairly likely at this point, which I assume the Lib Dems would be heavy favourites for, the number could be whittled down a bit more.

B+R has gone between the Tories and Lib Dems over the last few decades. Lib Dems (1997-2015) and Tories (1992-1997, 2015-present). I’d wager that the Lib Dems could take back this seat. It would be their only seat in Wales if they do take it.

[Oryxslayer]

Thought I’d share this post here as well.

Given that a Brecon + Radnorshire recall is fairly likely at this point, which I assume the Lib Dems would be heavy favourites for, the number could be whittled down a bit more.

B+R has gone between the Tories and Lib Dems over the last few decades. Lib Dems (1997-2015) and Tories (1992-1997, 2015-present). I’d wager that the Lib Dems could take back this seat. It would be their only seat in Wales if they do take it.

Most of the Lib Dem gains though are likely in the Southeast Remain heavy areas - the places that swung Ten points or more for labour last election because they were the sane option for remainers. If the Brexit Party torch is falling, or will fall once the conservative have a leader, that also helps the tories. Maybe they can advance though since this is a marginal Brexit-voting seat, but the PC's will no doubt make advances hard.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

but the PC's will no doubt make advances hard.

In Brecon & Radnor? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Julian Assange has a better chance of getting a job at the NSA than Plaid have of making a surge there lmao.

[Oryxslayer]

but the PC's will no doubt make advances hard.

In Brecon & Radnor? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Julian Assange has a better chance of getting a job at the NSA than Plaid have of making a surge there lmao.

You read it wrong. I meant the PC's will make the Lib-Dems advances hard. They have a minor presence in the seat, and their voter base in a hypothetical Lib-Dem vs Tory main matchup poaches more from the Lib-Dem side of the equation. So we cannot just look at the 51-49 Brexit result and say that as long as the Remain vote is united, they can defeat the divided Tories and Brexit voters. The Remain vote will be just as divided here, especially since the PCs are presently a party whose floor and ceiling are extremely close to each other. So there will be three main Remain options: LD, Lab (tepidly), PC, while two main Brexit options: Brexit and Tories.

[Tintrlvr]

but the PC's will no doubt make advances hard.

In Brecon & Radnor? Hahahahahahahahahahahaha. Julian Assange has a better chance of getting a job at the NSA than Plaid have of making a surge there lmao.

You read it wrong. I meant the PC's will make the Lib-Dems advances hard. They have a minor presence in the seat, and their voter base in a hypothetical Lib-Dem vs Tory main matchup poaches more from the Lib-Dem side of the equation. So we cannot just look at the 51-49 Brexit result and say that as long as the Remain vote is united, they can defeat the divided Tories and Brexit voters. The Remain vote will be just as divided here, especially since the PCs are presently a party whose floor and ceiling are extremely close to each other. So there will be three main Remain options: LD, Lab (tepidly), PC, while two main Brexit options: Brexit and Tories.

PC is not going to gain votes in Brecon & Radnorshire. They have zero presence there (PC has lost its deposit there at every election since 1974), and it's probably the least "Welsh" identifying seat in Wales other than Monmouth. PC also has no incentive to campaign just to get a derisory result anyway.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You read it wrong. I meant the PC's will make the Lib-Dems advances hard.

Yeah, no, that's still risible. Most of the constituency has been entirely English speaking for centuries - Radnor especially for a very, very long time. Most families have more to do with Herefordshire than they do with anywhere in other parts of Wales. Nationalism has no emotional pull whatsoever.

They have a minor presence in the seat, and their voter base in a hypothetical Lib-Dem vs Tory main matchup poaches more from the Lib-Dem side of the equation. So we cannot just look at the 51-49 Brexit result and say that as long as the Remain vote is united, they can defeat the divided Tories and Brexit voters. The Remain vote will be just as divided here, especially since the PCs are presently a party whose floor and ceiling are extremely close to each other. So there will be three main Remain options: LD, Lab (tepidly), PC, while two main Brexit options: Brexit and Tories.

If there's a by-election in Brecon & Radnor the LibDems won't campaign on Brexit. They'll campaign on how the Tory incumbent is a crook and how you should vote for that nice farmer/farmers wife/daughter they're running who is extremely local and who probably knows your father/mother/daughter/son.

[MaxQue]

You read it wrong. I meant the PC's will make the Lib-Dems advances hard.

Yeah, no, that's still risible. Most of the constituency has been entirely English speaking for centuries - Radnor especially for a very, very long time. Most families have more to do with Herefordshire than they do with anywhere in other parts of Wales. Nationalism has no emotional pull whatsoever.

They have a minor presence in the seat, and their voter base in a hypothetical Lib-Dem vs Tory main matchup poaches more from the Lib-Dem side of the equation. So we cannot just look at the 51-49 Brexit result and say that as long as the Remain vote is united, they can defeat the divided Tories and Brexit voters. The Remain vote will be just as divided here, especially since the PCs are presently a party whose floor and ceiling are extremely close to each other. So there will be three main Remain options: LD, Lab (tepidly), PC, while two main Brexit options: Brexit and Tories.

If there's a by-election in Brecon & Radnor the LibDems won't campaign on Brexit. They'll campaign on how the Tory incumbent is a crook and how you should vote for that nice farmer/farmers wife/daughter they're running who is extremely local and who probably knows your father/mother/daughter/son.

The LD candidate is actually Jane Dodds, leader of Welsh LDs, former councillor in Richmond-upon-Thames, 3 times candidate in Montgomeryshire and raised in Wrexham. Doesn't really fit the profile.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The LD candidate is actually Jane Dodds, leader of Welsh LDs, former councillor in Richmond-upon-Thames, 3 times candidate in Montgomeryshire and raised in Wrexham. Doesn't really fit the profile.

Ah, going down the well spoken and terribly nice chap/lady who attends every village fête route instead, then. They've not tried that in Brecon & Radnor before, but it has worked in other parts of Mid Wales - Alex Carlile would be the classic case. Still a popular figure in his old constituency.

[YL]

If there's a by-election in Brecon & Radnor the LibDems won't campaign on Brexit. They'll campaign on how the Tory incumbent is a crook and how you should vote for that nice farmer/farmers wife/daughter they're running who is extremely local and who probably knows your father/mother/daughter/son.

I wonder whether the Tories will stick with Davies if there's a by-election.  My suspicion is that they've stuck with him so far because of the parliamentary arithmetic as much as anything.

I think the recall is going to succeed; comparing the constituency and the case with Peterborough and North Antrim suggests that it should be somewhere in between, and the former passed easily while the latter only narrowly failed.  Also, the Lib Dems seem pretty confident from what I can tell, though it's illegal to actually publish any numbers.

I think the earliest a by-election could be held would be Thursday 25 July.  That would be interesting; it'd be three days after the result of the Tory leadership election is announced.  However, I suspect that if the recall does succeed then the Tories may well sit on it for a bit and the by-election won't be until the autumn, especially if they decide to change candidate.  If the new leader ends up having to call a General Election the by-election may never happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Recall elections are a thing in the UK? How come I've never heard of them before?

[YL]

Recall elections are a thing in the UK? How come I've never heard of them before?

Because they've only just been introduced: Peterborough was the first.

They're only available where the MP has been sent to prison (for less than a year, as a longer sentence would lead to an automatic exclusion from the Commons), convicted of an expenses-related offence (which is the Brecon & Radnorshire trigger) or been given a lengthy suspension from the Commons.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recall_of_MPs_Act_2015