UK Parliamentary by-elections, 2015 onwards (also devolved legislatures)

[Silent Hunter]

The Monster Raving Loony Party... any chance of them saving their deposit?

[CumbrianLefty]

Very little, I would say.

Their best ever performance remains 4% at the Rotherham byelection in 1994.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The Monster Raving Loony Party... any chance of them saving their deposit?

The real question is whether UKIP will beat them.

[Diouf]

Number Cruncher Politics poll of Brecon & Radnorshire, carried out 10-18th July.

Jane Dodds (Liberal Democrat)   43% (+14%)
Christopher Davies (Conservative) 28% (-21%)
Des Parkinson (The Brexit Party)   20% (+20%)
Tom Davies (Labour)   8% (-10%)
Lady Lily Pink (Monster Raving Loony Party)   1% (+1%)
Liz Phillips (UKIP) 1%   (=)

https://www.ncpolitics.uk/2019/07/advantage-lib-dems-at-the-brecon-by-election/

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't buy by elections polls as a rule, but if I was to have made a prediction it would be close to that (although I'm thinking a bit lower for Labour and Brexit, higher for the Tories and Libs).

Also the Tory MP for the marginal seat of Dover, Charlie Elphicke, has just been charged with multiple counts of sexual assault. At this point, I imagine a snap election is going to preempt the potential process of conviction/recall/by-election campaign, but Dover would be a hugely symbolic by-election amidst the Brexit chaos, for obvious reasons and could potentially be won by the Tories, Labour or Brexit.

[Silent Hunter]

Re Elphicke; remember the matter is sub judice.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Lady Lily Pink (Monster Raving Loony Party)   1% (+1%)
Liz Phillips (UKIP) 1%   (=)

Oof

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Jared O'Mara is thinking of resigning after the summer recess, according to the Sheffield Star.

[YL]

Jared O'Mara is thinking of resigning after the summer recess, according to the Sheffield Star.

The statement says he will resign once the recess is over, so that suggests a Sheffield Hallam by-election in early October.  (I don't think it can happen before then.) It may be overtaken by a General Election as happened in Manchester Gorton, but if it doesn't I expect an easy Lib Dem gain.  I am leaning towards voting for them myself.

[DaWN]

If Labour can convince Oliver Coppard to stand they might be in with a chance, otherwise it would probably be a pretty easy gain for the Lib Dems

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If Labour can convince Oliver Coppard to stand they might be in with a chance, otherwise it would probably be a pretty easy gain for the Lib Dems

Coppard - who is Jewish - does not have a great relationship with Hallam CLP at present and does not have a high opinion of the national leadership. On a purely human level, he now has a worthwhile job that he seems to find satisfying, so...

[DaWN]

If Labour can convince Oliver Coppard to stand they might be in with a chance, otherwise it would probably be a pretty easy gain for the Lib Dems

Coppard - who is Jewish - does not have a great relationship with Hallam CLP at present and does not have a high opinion of the national leadership. On a purely human level, he now has a worthwhile job that he seems to find satisfying, so...

A fact I was unaware of.

In which case this is probably the Lib Dems to lose, with the double caveat that if anyone could cock it up it would be them, and that idiot remainers voting Labour are the most difficult voting group in the country to predict.

[CumbrianLefty]

If Labour can convince Oliver Coppard to stand they might be in with a chance, otherwise it would probably be a pretty easy gain for the Lib Dems

It is a local tragedy that he didn't beat Clegg in 2015.

If only Tory voters there had been a bit less cynical.......

[YL]

If Labour can convince Oliver Coppard to stand they might be in with a chance, otherwise it would probably be a pretty easy gain for the Lib Dems

Coppard - who is Jewish - does not have a great relationship with Hallam CLP at present and does not have a high opinion of the national leadership. On a purely human level, he now has a worthwhile job that he seems to find satisfying, so...

He's said he doesn't want to stand at the moment, which is a shame; he was a very good candidate in 2015 and while that doesn't necessarily mean he'd have been a good MP I think he would have been.  Anyway, both Labour and the Lib Dems have candidates selected so there isn't much point speculating.  The Lib Dems' is Laura Gordon and Labour's is Olivia Blake, a leading figure on Sheffield City Council and councillor for Walkley (in Central constituency).

(I first typed "leafing figure" there, which would have been an amusing typo in context.  And that might indicate a further problem for Labour beyond Br*x*t, anti-Semitism and the 2017 candidate selection.)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Running part of the Machine in this part of the city is... courageous.

[CumbrianLefty]

Running part of the Machine in this part of the city is... courageous.

The local CLP membership must have seen something good in her, one charitably presumes.

(and of course they never picked O'Mara, as I have seen some inaccurately assert)

[YL]

Running part of the Machine in this part of the city is... courageous.

The local CLP membership must have seen something good in her, one charitably presumes.

(and of course they never picked O'Mara, as I have seen some inaccurately assert)

I'm not aware of anything particularly against Blake herself, but I expect her position on the Council to be used against her.  You are right about O'Mara of course; that's down to the national Labour party rushing the selections in seats they didn't think were winnable (which given expectations at the time of selection meant pretty much everywhere not already held).  Lessons do appear to have been learned; lots of selections have already happened.

[mileslunn]

At what time approximately will the declaration be made?

[DaWN]

Does anyone know whether the Twitter rumours that the LDs are in trouble tomorrow have any basis? Obviously its Twitter so I'm taking it all with a tanker-load of salt but there's a sad lack of surprise to the whole thing that's making me a bit wary.

Or I'm just reading too deeply into stupid rumours on social media like an idiot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Does anyone know whether the Twitter rumours that the LDs are in trouble tomorrow have any basis? Obviously its Twitter so I'm taking it all with a tanker-load of salt but there's a sad lack of surprise to the whole thing that's making me a bit wary.

Or I'm just reading too deeply into stupid rumours on social media like an idiot.

Often hard to be sure with these things, though one thing you can't rule out is that it is expectation management from the LibDems. One thing to note is that campaigns never know exactly how things are going until the votes are actually counted (canvassing is at best impressionistic), but journalists always insist on reporting as if this is not so.

[Tintrlvr]

Does anyone know whether the Twitter rumours that the LDs are in trouble tomorrow have any basis? Obviously its Twitter so I'm taking it all with a tanker-load of salt but there's a sad lack of surprise to the whole thing that's making me a bit wary.

Or I'm just reading too deeply into stupid rumours on social media like an idiot.

I think it's just anxiety. The betting markets went a little crazy for a while, putting the odds of a Tory hold as low as 2-3%, which was always overstating things. That's pulled back somewhat, but it doesn't seem like the fundamentals have changed much. Projecting too much confidence is risky, since it causes complacency among your voters. I don't think the LDs have this in the bag, but I don't think anything has changed since a week or two ago, either, when people seemed very confident in the LDs' chances. It's worth pointing out that Paddy Ashdown declared on the day of the Newbury by-election that it was a close-fought, very uncertain race... the Lib Dems won by nearly 40 points.

[CumbrianLefty]

The clinching thing for me is that the Tories don't seem to be busting a gut to try and hold this - even the new PM's flying visit yesterday seemed a distinctly perfunctory affair.

Maybe the only thing that could cause a shock Tory hold is the Labour vote holding up rather better "than expected", and whilst nothing should be ruled out in these contests that does seem unlikely.

[DINGO Joe]

At what time approximately will the declaration be made?

Apparently around dawn as it is a rather large rural area, or so says Andrew

[cp]

Does anyone know whether the Twitter rumours that the LDs are in trouble tomorrow have any basis? Obviously its Twitter so I'm taking it all with a tanker-load of salt but there's a sad lack of surprise to the whole thing that's making me a bit wary.

Or I'm just reading too deeply into stupid rumours on social media like an idiot.

I think it's just anxiety. The betting markets went a little crazy for a while, putting the odds of a Tory hold as low as 2-3%, which was always overstating things. That's pulled back somewhat, but it doesn't seem like the fundamentals have changed much. Projecting too much confidence is risky, since it causes complacency among your voters. I don't think the LDs have this in the bag, but I don't think anything has changed since a week or two ago, either, when people seemed very confident in the LDs' chances. It's worth pointing out that Paddy Ashdown declared on the day of the Newbury by-election that it was a close-fought, very uncertain race... the Lib Dems won by nearly 40 points.

The clinching thing for me is that the Tories don't seem to be busting a gut to try and hold this - even the new PM's flying visit yesterday seemed a distinctly perfunctory affair.

Maybe the only thing that could cause a shock Tory hold is the Labour vote holding up rather better "than expected", and whilst nothing should be ruled out in these contests that does seem unlikely.

Agreed on all counts. A runaway Lib Dem win was never really in the cards. This is still, after all, a seat in rural Wales with a long history of electing Tories. Nevertheless, the Tory candidate is about as flawed as you can get and the conditions under which the by-election were called are about as good for a challenger as they could possible be. Add to that the maneuvering of the other parties (Labour phoning it in; PC and Greens standing down; Brexit Party persevering) and you've got a lot that points to a Lib Dem victory.

I'm curious about what the received wisdom from the results will end up being. Depending on who wins, by how much, and where the runners-up land, a lot of not necessarily mutually exclusive narratives could gain traction: 'The Lib Dems are the real opposition now'; 'The Brexit Party has to fold to avoid splitting the vote'; 'Johnson is a miracle worker'. Any others I missed?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

At what time approximately will the declaration be made?

Apparently around dawn as it is a rather large rural area, or so says Andrew

Saw a tweet from a channel 4 reporter who figured it would be around 2:30-3 UK time (6:30-7 PM Pacific, 9:30-10 Eastern).