German federal election (September 18, 2005)

[freek]

What is the Left Party?  Why shouldn't this result mean a SPD/Green/Left coalition?

The Left Party consists of two parts. One part is the PDS, the former East German communist party. Quite strong in former East Germany, weak in the rest of the country.

The other part is the WASG, a new movement. It consists of former SPD members who left the SPD because it wasn't left enough.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

First heard the news when I turned a car radio on in the middle of Ceredigion (don't ask). Needless to say this is very suprising... and somewhat pleasing actually.

SPD seem to be leading in most Lander

[Angel of Death]

Rumors are now saying that the SPD has the same amount of seats as the CDU/CSU, which in that case will no doubt have been the result of their tendency to profit from overhang seats.

[jaichind]

Forsa projects SPD with 223 seats and CDU/CSU with 220 seat !  This upseats all calculations.

[afleitch]

Go forth unemployed masses of Germany, like turkeys voting for Christmas.

[jaichind]

NTV gives SPD 222 and CDU/CSU 222 ... what a mess

[afleitch]

I'm half expecting to hear BUSH TAKES FLORIDA!

[afleitch]

Left Party second in former East Germany

SDP 30.2
PDS 25.7
CDU 24.9

[Bono]

I totally saw this coming.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well I'm glad to see the CDU/CSU do much worse than expected. But this also looks like a very hung government. What happens afterwords will be quite interesting.

BTW, does NDP have any seats in any state governments?

[Jake]

They have 12 out of 124 in Saxony

[jaichind]

     The following is a summary of projections for the four main TV networks in Germany, showing support for the parties in percent and the seats in parliament.

        ARD/Infratest  ZDF/FG   n-tv/       N24/Emnid   2002
        Dimap          Wahlen   RTL/Forsa              election
CDU     35.2           35.0     35.0        35.0        38.5
FDP      10.0           10.0     10.0        10.0         7.4
SPD      34.1           34.1     34.0        34.0       38.5
Greens   8.1            8.2       8.2          8.1         8.6
Left        8.6            8.6       8.5          8.4         4.0

 
        ARD/Infratest  ZDF/FG   n-tv/       N24/Emnid   2002
        Dimap          Wahlen   RTL/Forsa              election
CDU      219            224      222         222         248
FDP         62             62         62          62            47
SPD       212            221      222         222         251
Greens    51             51         51          51            55
Left         54             54         53          53             2

 

[Jens]

Latest from ARD

CDU: 35,2%  -3,3% 225M  -23M
FDP:    9,8% +2,4%   61M +14M

SPD:  34,3% -4,2% 223M - 28M
Grüne: 8,1% -0,5%   50M   -5M

Linke:  8,7% +4,7%  54M +52M

A clear defeat for both the major parties and a triumf for Left. 308 is needed for a majority, neither SPD/Grüne or CDU/CSU/FDP is close to this. I wonder whether CDU wants to enter a grand coalition where they arn't clearly the biggest party.

Interesting enough CDU/FDP have a majority in West Germany 47,5% vs SPD/Grüne 43,9% with Linke just missing the threshold with 4,9% while SPD/Linke alone gets 55,7% in former DDR. Linke gets 25,4% of the votes in East Germany, just slidely larger that CDU

[ag]

What seems to be final results (but for the inner Dresden vote to happen on Oct. 2):

CDU/CSU - 35.2% of the vote, 225 seats
SPD - 34.3% of the vote, 222 seats
FDP - 9.8% of the vote, 61 seats
Linke.PDS - 8.7% of the vote, 54 seats
Greens - 8.1% of the vote, 51 seats
Others - 3.9% of the vote, no seats.

Whatever you wanted to happen, hats off to Schroeder's campaign skill. To make the certain rout a less than 1% popular vote difference with CDU/CSU - the guy is a genius.

So, what will it be? Options are:

1. CDU/CSU/SPD
2. CDU/CSU/FDP/Green
3. SPD/Green/FDP
4. SPD/Green minority supported from the outside by FDP
5. SDP/Green minority supported from the outside by Linke.PDS
6. CDU/CSU/FDP minority supported from the outside by Greens
7. New election

(While numerically, of course, SPD/Green/Linke.PDS, etc. are possible, I don't believe them whatsoever likely).

[Platypus]

1 for the short term, 7 within 1 and a half years at most.

[ag]

Noth that it really matters, but the second-vote winners by Land:

Schleswig-Holstein - SPD
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern - SPD
Hamburg - SPD
Niedersachsen - SPD
Bremen - SPD
Brandenburg - SPD (runner-up - Linke.PDS)
Sachsen-Anhalt - SPD (runner-up - Linke.PDS)
Berlin - SPD
Nordrhein-Westfalen - SPD
Sachsen - CDU
Hessen - SPD
Thüringen - SPD (runner-up - Linke.PDS)
Rheinland-Pfalz - CDU
Baden-Württemberg - CDU
Bayern - CSU
Saarland - SPD

In each Land the winning party is unchanged from the last election. No party (not even CSU in Bavaria) won 50% of the vote in any Land.

[CARLHAYDEN]

I think there was an earlier one some weeks ago...but then the CDU/FDP decline stopped... Still grotesque numbers of undecideds out there, for all I hear. Heck, I'm not quite decided.
Smart money's on a grand coalition.

I have a theory that the undecideds will break disproportionately to the Free Democrats (not a majority, but two to three times their proportion of the current decideds).

Ahem.

Merkel was a weak candidate.

I would suggest that the SPD is in a real fix.  If they accept a partnership with the CDU/CSU, I suspect they will further fracture, losing more support to the loony left.

Also, such a big coalition government should develop without including the FDP,  they would become by default the only sane opposition.

Finally, if the 'big' coalition should develop, woud the Greens and the Link-PDS amalgamate?


 

[jaichind]

I think given the fact that the collective left (SPD, Green, Left) got more than 50% of the vote it should really be a SPD-Green minority government with support from the Left from the outside.  Unlikely to happend.  Most likely elections very soon. 

[ag]

Individual seats to change hands:

1. Odenwald (Hessen) (SPD > CDU)
2. Pinneberg (Schleswig - Holstein) (SPD >CDU)
3. Frankfurt am Main II (Hessen) (SPD>CDU)
4. Greiz - Altenburger Land (Thuringen) (SPD>CDU)
5. Berlin-Steglitz - Zehlendorf (Berlin) (SPD>CDU)
6. Segeberg - Stormarn-Nord (Schleswig-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
7. Herzogtum Lauenburg - Stormarn-Süd (Schleswig-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
8. Berlin-Treptow - Köpenick (Berlin) (SPD>Linke) - this is now Gregor Gysi's seat.
9. Offenbach (Hessen) (SPD>CDU)
10. Karlsruhe-Stadt (Baden-Wurttemberg) (SPD>CSU)
11. Rendsburg-Eckernförde (Schleswig-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
12. Leipziger Land - Muldentalkreis (Sachsen) (SPD>CDU)
13. Kyffhäuserkreis - Sömmerda - Weimarer Land I (Thuringen) (SPD>CDU)
14. Bergstraße (Hessen) (SPD>CDU)
15. Mettmann I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
16. Neubrandenburg - Mecklenburg-Strelitz - Uecker-Randow (Mecklenburg-Vorpommern) (SPD>CDU)
17. Heidelberg (Baden-Wurttemberg) (SPD>CDU)
18. Rhein-Sieg-Kreis I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
19. Stuttgart I (Baden-Wurttemberg) (SPD>CDU)
20. Steinburg - Dithmarschen Süd (Schleswigh-Holstein) (SPD>CDU)
21. Neuss I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
22. Düren (NRW) (SPD>CDU)
23. Kreuznach (Rheinland-Pfalz) (SPD>CDU)
24. Trier (Rheinland-Pfalz) (SPD>CDU)
25. Düsseldorf I (NRW) (SPD>CDU)

Total: 24 seats went from SPD to CDU and 1 seat from SPD to Linke.

Aside from the SPD and CDU/CSU Linke got 3 direct seats and the Greens kept their single Berlin seat.

  

[ag]

Finally, if the 'big' coalition should develop, woud the Greens and the Link-PDS amalgamate?
 

From what I understand there is a serious mutual distaste between the Greens and the Linke (especially at the leadership level). There is also a very serious divergence in both the core ideology and style, as well as in the nature of their electorate. The current leadership of the Greens is, actually, very sane. They might not have done spectacularly, but they had a very solid result (I think it is the third-best result in their history), loosing only 4 seats from the last-time spectacular performance.  So, there does not seem to be a leadership change in offing, nor any need for some desperate actions. I don't see why the Greens would be tempted to have anything to do with the Linke.

[ag]

Merkel was a weak candidate.

Merkel was a weak candidate, Stoiber was a weak candidate. Who is the strong candidate?  Should they get Kohl out of the retirement? Well, he also was a bad candidate, at least the last time, wasn't he?

There was nothing intrinsically bad about Merkel. Schroeder made her appear a bad candidate.  Is he brutal in campaign? Sure.  But that's part of the job description.  Like him, or hate him, he knows how to campaign. If I were Merkel, I wouldn't want to have another election too soon (if there is a new election, I would think, Schroeder would stay on to fight).

[CARLHAYDEN]

Yes, and Stalin and Trotsky disliked each other.  

Yes, I agree that the Green officals wouldn't take a back seat to der Linke.

Yes, I agree that the Greens are more prosperous than than Linke supporters.

However, from what I have seen, the Greens are only marginally less nutty that der Linke.

I think that if there is a temporary SPD-Green government, that the Greens will lose support to der Linke, and the CDU/CSU will clearly win the next election.

CDU/CSU           40
SPD                   30
FDP                   10
L-PDS                  9
GREEN                 7
OTHERS               4

If there should be a 'Grand Coalition' without the FDP, the CDU/CSU will lose support to the FDP and the SPD to the Linke.

If there is a temporary CDU/CSU and FDP government, and if the government performs creditably, I suspect both the CDU/CSU and FDP will further improve.

[ag]

The Green and Linke electorates seem to be more different between themselves than the CDU and SPD electorates.  You might dislike both, but they are not at all similar, nor they are natural allies, nor have they ever been.  For Linke to be acceptable for the Green leadership, it would have to ditch much of its Eastern inheritance and, most definitely, the person of Oscar Lafontaine.  In other words, they'd have to ditch 3/4 of their electorate.  Ideologically, the anti-immigrant, environment-indifferent union- and old-commie-based Linke is anathema to the Greens.  Honestly, a CDU/SPD merger seems likelier - or, at least, less ideologically incongruent.

Again, they might seem equal nutties to you - but they are very, very different nutties.

As for your forecast - unlikely. 40+10 for CDU/CSU/FDP seems to be an overshoot, given these results. FDP is at its ceiling - and much of its electorate came from CDU, and it won't happen again.  If CDU/CSU/FDP were to get 50, it would be more like 43/7. The rest would depend on what happens in the rematch: given what Schroeder did to Merkel over the campaign, an immediate rematch against him would not be advisable for her.

I don't really think the SPD/Green with outside Linke is very likely (it is definitely a very bad option):  I would think Schroeder would prefer a very quick rematch. So, even if it happens he would try to avoid compromising with the Linke to generate a rapid crisis.

A caretaker CDU/CSU/FDP government would only have couple of months to do anything (unless it manages to get Green or Linke support), so the country will stay in the same campaign mode that worked so well for Schroeder.  It would be unpredictable, of course, but I would give Schroeder an advantage.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Considering how bad Merkel and PDS look now, if we do end up with new elections, I'm betting SPD/Greens wins a majority.

Schroeder has said he will not enter any coalition with Merkel as Chancellor (go Schroeder!) so as of now it looks as if there's no way she can win. Either the left scrapes out a coalition or new electoion is held and the left wins. I hope so, because I utterly despise Merkel. What a vile woman.

[ag]

I hope so, because I utterly despise Merkel. What a vile woman.

God, why? She is a very decent person, and would have been a great Chancellor. She is a lousy public politician though - at least, in comparison with Schroeder