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Author Topic: states where obama will win the white male vote?  (Read 4914 times)
WalterMitty
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« on: July 27, 2008, 12:03:12 pm »
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not that im a big fan of exit polls. 

vermont comes to mind.  dc too.  minnesota, possibly?
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« Reply #1 on: July 27, 2008, 12:07:31 pm »
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Washington, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts to name a few others ...
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mokbu
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« Reply #2 on: July 27, 2008, 12:13:49 pm »
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oregon maine iowa
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Jacobtm
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« Reply #3 on: July 27, 2008, 12:21:50 pm »
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Wisconsin perhaps?
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WalterMitty
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« Reply #4 on: July 27, 2008, 12:33:45 pm »
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Wisconsin perhaps?

maybe not.
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« Reply #5 on: July 27, 2008, 12:36:41 pm »
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Iowa, if he continues his 5-10 point leads there. IIRC, white Iowans are most liberal (by self-identity) white population in the country.
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« Reply #6 on: July 27, 2008, 12:41:58 pm »
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Oregon?
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phk
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« Reply #7 on: July 27, 2008, 12:42:01 pm »
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Iowa, if he continues his 5-10 point leads there. IIRC, white Iowans are most liberal (by self-identity) white population in the country.

Even more than VT?
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« Reply #8 on: July 27, 2008, 12:42:57 pm »
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Vermont
Massachusetts
Illinois
Minnesota
California
Washington
Hawaii
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« Reply #9 on: July 27, 2008, 12:51:17 pm »
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California(but only if you count latins as white). The rest? I'm not so sure on tbh.
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« Reply #10 on: July 27, 2008, 01:09:13 pm »
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California(but only if you count latins as white). The rest? I'm not so sure on tbh.

A disproportionate amount of CA Latins are Natives.
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« Reply #11 on: July 27, 2008, 01:16:24 pm »
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Definitely here in Minnesota.  You pretty much have to win the white vote in Minnesota to win.. when we're 85% of the population.
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« Reply #12 on: July 27, 2008, 01:26:43 pm »
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He said white male vote, not white. Still the gender gap in Minnesota is very small. Only a 2-point split between white men and white women in 2004, Bush taking white men 51-49, the numbers reversed for white women. So it'll probably happen here.

Iowa was 52-47, so if he wins by the poll margin, that'll happen.
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« Reply #13 on: July 27, 2008, 01:37:42 pm »
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Minnesota, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, New York, Vermont, Maryland, DC
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« Reply #14 on: July 27, 2008, 01:46:30 pm »
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Minnesota, Rhode Island, Massachussetts, New York, Vermont, Maryland, DC

I wouldn't count on New York, necessarily, seeing as how it votes like Massachusetts and Rhode Island but with a much higher minority population and no doubt one heck of a gender gap in the suburbs.
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« Reply #15 on: July 27, 2008, 02:03:10 pm »
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Kerry's margin among white men, per the exit polls.  Note that these have a reasonably high MoE, especially in states with a high minority population.

District of Columbia +52%
Vermont +14%
Rhode Island +13%
Massachusetts +10%
Hawai'i +4%
Washington +1%
----------------------
Connecticut - 1%
Maine -1%
Minnesota -1%
Illinois -3%
Iowa -5%
New York -6%
New Hampshire -7%
Wisconsin -10%
Missouri -11%
Maryland -13%
New Jersey -13%
Ohio -13%
California -14%
Pennsylvania -15%
West Virginia -15%
Michigan -16%
New Mexico -18%
Oregon -18%
Colorado -19%
Florida -19%
Delaware -20%
Montana -20%
Nevada -20%
South Dakota -25%
Arizona -27%
Indiana -31%
Kansas -32%
Nebraska -32%
Tennessee -33%
North Dakota -34%
Arkansas -35%
Kentucky -35%
Alaska -44%
Texas -45%
Virginia -45%
Wyoming -45%
Idaho -46%
Oklahoma -46%
North Carolina -49%
Utah -50%
Georgia -52%
Louisiana -54%
South Carolina -56%
Mississippi -63%
Alabama -64%

Fun list.  White men in Delaware are just as Republican as in Montana.  Who knew?
« Last Edit: July 27, 2008, 09:29:48 pm by Alcon »Logged

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StatesRights
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« Reply #16 on: July 27, 2008, 02:17:47 pm »
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Maryland

Try no.
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« Reply #17 on: July 27, 2008, 02:59:30 pm »
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Vermont
Washington
Oregon
Minnesota
Maine
Illinois
Rhode Island
Massachussetts
New York
Connecticut
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Torie
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« Reply #18 on: July 27, 2008, 03:26:43 pm »
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Vermont, and maybe Hawaii (the white vote there is pretty liberal these days), Maine, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington, and Minnesota. I suspect the odds are less than 50-50 everywhere else.
« Last Edit: July 27, 2008, 03:28:55 pm by Torie »Logged

tweed
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« Reply #19 on: July 27, 2008, 03:34:55 pm »
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Mississippi
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Torie
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« Reply #20 on: July 27, 2008, 04:20:44 pm »
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Alcon, add to your list Connecticut, -1.
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mokbu
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« Reply #21 on: July 27, 2008, 08:22:02 pm »
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Didnt see the male part.
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Alcon
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« Reply #22 on: July 27, 2008, 09:31:57 pm »
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Vermont, and maybe Hawaii (the white vote there is pretty liberal these days), Maine, Illinois, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Washington, and Minnesota. I suspect the odds are less than 50-50 everywhere else.

I'd be surprised if he lost them in Hawai'i.  Whites are stably Democratic in the state.  It was Bush's surge among pro-incumbent Asians and Pacific Islanders that gave him his gain.  Between 2000 and 2004, he went from 35% to 51% among those groups.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #23 on: July 27, 2008, 10:18:05 pm »
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not sure but he could lose the white male vote about everywhere, won't he?  Is there a white male vote in DC?
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ChrisFromNJ
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« Reply #24 on: July 27, 2008, 10:55:14 pm »
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Why do people think he will win the white male vote in Illinois?
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