Argentina general elections, 27 October 2019. Open Primaries 11 August

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

La Nación, as always, has the best electoral maps

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/mapa-resultados-elecciones-paso-2019-nid2274716#/

But yeah, this result was unexpected by everyone other than the most hardcore Kirchnerista hacks

[Velasco]

Candidates qualified for presidential elections (88.8% reporting)

Alberto Fernández/CFdK (Frente de Todos, big tent or centre-left Peronist) 47.36%

Mauricio Macri/Miguel Angel Pichetto (Juntos por el Cambio, centre-right non-peronist ruling alliance) 32.24%

Roberto Lavagna / Juan Manuel Urtubey (Consenso Federal: federal peronists leaning centre-right, socialists and other centre-left parties) 8.34%

Nicolás del Caño/Romina del Pla (FIT, trotskyst) 2.89%

Juan José Gómez Centurión/Cynthia Hotton (Frente NOS,  right-wing to far-right) 2.63%

José Luis Espert/Luis Rosales (UNITE, right-wing) 2.22%

Source: La Nación

[Skye]

Hilariously bad results for Macri. Little reason to believe he'll recover significantly when he's the incumbent and the economy isn't doing so hot right now. I guess he could hope Fernández falls a bit under 45% and he gains enough so a ballotage will be needed and he gets a bit more time, but still.

[Former President tack50]

Looking at the minor candidates, would I be right to think that this is a good resxult for del Caño and Centurión and a bad one for Espert?

[jaichind]

The FX, debt and equity markets will tank.  This is way worse for Macri than the market had been excepting.  This pretty much puts Macri out of the running in the general election. 

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Looking at the minor candidates, would I be right to think that this is a good resxult for del Caño and Centurión and a bad one for Espert?

It's a good result for Centurión, a decent one for Del Caño (but lower than 2015) and probably a bad one for Espert

[samm5]

Hilariously bad results for Macri. Little reason to believe he'll recover significantly when he's the incumbent and the economy isn't doing so hot right now. I guess he could hope Fernández falls a bit under 45% and he gains enough so a ballotage will be needed and he gets a bit more time, but still.

That's probably their goal but it's almost impossible, keep in mind that the results in the primaries take blank votes as part of the total. If you calculate the % of votes with only the valid votes (as in the general election in october) Fernandez is close to 49% and Macri to 33%. Even if turnout is a bit higher and some voters from third parties run to Macri he'll not pass 40% and Fernandez will not get less than 45%

In other news, there's turbelence in the markets with these results as they were expecting a much better result for Macri. Both bonds and the stock market fell and the USD is being sold between 50-60 pesos per dollar. It was 46,7 on friday.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does anyone think that the abortion issue has a lot to do with the results, or is support for liberalization bipartisan enough to make this a seat-by-seat issue rather than a national one?

[alancia]

That feel when you wake up 20 to 30% poorer than last night lol.

[Skye]

That feel when you wake up 20 to 30% poorer than last night lol.

As a Venezuelan, I can relate.

[samm5]

Does anyone think that the abortion issue has a lot to do with the results, or is support for liberalization bipartisan enough to make this a seat-by-seat issue rather than a national one?

It was and is a relevant social topic but i don't think it was decesive in this election. In my opinion the economic situation was. Both Macri and Fernandez have pro-choice and pro-life legislators in their ballots. I do think that the abortion/nuclear family debate boosted Gomez Centurión party as he's not a public figure known by the electorate and he still got almost 3% almost 5% in some provinces.

[Velasco]

Córdoba and the City of Buenos Aires stand as the last Macrista strongholds. The Córdoba province was already the strongest place for Macri in the 2015 elections, but the winner in the PASO was former governor De la Sota (he contested the UNA primary against Massa). The victory of Macri is unsurprising, as Córdoba has been always hostile to the Kirchner. But the result of Lavagna is rather poor considering it's his natal province and he was the leading candidate back in 2007 (Lavagna was the first and only peronist ever endorsed by the UCR). I think the current governor Schiaretti was part of the Alternativa Federal but, after the withdrawal of Massa and Pichetto, I don't know. Did he endorse Lavagna, side with Macri or stay neutral?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Holy sh*t, Macri should just drop out.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Does anyone think that the abortion issue has a lot to do with the results, or is support for liberalization bipartisan enough to make this a seat-by-seat issue rather than a national one?

It was and is a relevant social topic but i don't think it was decesive in this election. In my opinion the economic situation was. Both Macri and Fernandez have pro-choice and pro-life legislators in their ballots. I do think that the abortion/nuclear family debate boosted Gomez Centurión party as he's not a public figure known by the electorate and he still got almost 3% almost 5% in some provinces.

I went to Argentina on vacation four months ago, and, out of curiousity, I looked up election results, and noted that it seemed like the center-right party did best in urban areas.  Isn't Capital Federal (BA City) the most right-wing area of the nation?

Even if I didn't talk a whole lot of politics with locals I met, I felt like there was a massive sense of dissatisfaction with the economy due to the rampant inflation.  People were telling me that it had really gotten out of control.  I just checked, and one dollar is now 52 pesos (it was about 40 when I was there in April and was in the 20s this time last year).  Some of that is due to the post-election stuff, but the peso had fallen even before then.  Still, it seemed like there was some hesitancy about going back to the Peronist government.

Not the inflation stuff, but there is a similar urban-rural divide in Brazil, with the Southeastern cities of Rio and Sao Paolo having given massive margins to Bolsonaro (or at least their states did).

[samm5]

I went to Argentina on vacation four months ago, and, out of curiousity, I looked up election results, and noted that it seemed like the center-right party did best in urban areas.  Isn't Capital Federal (BA City) the most right-wing area of the nation?

It's a stronghold of the non-peronist camp in general. But i wouldn't say it's right-wing in terms of social conservatism tough, more like in economic terms. As any other big cosmopolitan city it has a sizeable progressive voter base but it's divided on the peronist/kirchnerist voters and the more social-liberal voters.

Macri did well in urban areas and the wealthy rural regions in the center provinces in 2015. That was his core vote. He had a worst performance this election there. The rest of the provinces were not that competitive in the first place, and in the suburbs of BA (a stronghold for PJ as it has a lot of working class/low-income voters) the difference was much bigger than in 2015, they lost the majority of the districts they won the last election.

Also it was decisive that the peronist vote was divided in 2015 and 2017 and not now.

Not the inflation stuff, but there is a similar urban-rural divide in Brazil, with the Southeastern cities of Rio and Sao Paolo having given massive margins to Bolsonaro (or at least their states did).

Yeah it could be a good guide to try to understand the phenomenon here. The south/southeastern region of Brazil would be like the center region here + city of Buenos Aires.

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Córdoba and the City of Buenos Aires stand as the last Macrista strongholds. The Córdoba province was already the strongest place for Macri in the 2015 elections, but the winner in the PASO was former governor De la Sota (he contested the UNA primary against Massa). The victory of Macri is unsurprising, as Córdoba has been always hostile to the Kirchner. But the result of Lavagna is rather poor considering it's his natal province and he was the leading candidate back in 2007 (Lavagna was the first and only peronist ever endorsed by the UCR). I think the current governor Schiaretti was part of the Alternativa Federal but, after the withdrawal of Massa and Pichetto, I don't know. Did he endorse Lavagna, side with Macri or stay neutral?

Schiaretti largely stayed neutral, but he'll work with whoever wins the national elections, and while likely get a lot closer to Alberto Fernández if the latter wins

[Velasco]

Schiaretti largely stayed neutral, but he'll work with whoever wins the national elections, and while likely get a lot closer to Alberto Fernández if the latter wins

Obviously Schiaretti will approach Fernández,  because only a huge disaster could prevent the victory of the latter. People has spoken disowning the incompetent Macri administration. While I'm far from being a fan of the Kirchners and their allies, I wish all the best to Alberto Fernández. Tonight I contacted an Argentinian friend living in Buenos Aires, because I'm concerned by the repercusions of market hysteria. He told me that Fernández is not a radical and maybe he could offer the economic portfolio to Lavagna, who is by large the man with the best qualifications. In any case, regardless who is conducting the country's economy, Fernández & company must find a way to calm "the markets" and Macri must stop acting like an arsonist with his silly statements. Argentina needs desperately a competent administration and leave polarization behind. Luckily Cristina seems to be semi-retired and is adopting a quiet role...


I

[FredLindq]

If we look att the PASO results for the congress. Cambiemos is actually gaining two seats in the senate comparing to how many seats the current class off 2015. Looking att the deputies they will gain three seats. FPV or FDT will as well gain seats mainly on the expense off federal peronism and smaller partiets.

[Velasco]

If we look all the PASO results for the congress. Cambiemos is actually gaining two seats in the senate comparing to how many seats the current class off 2015. Looking all the deputies they will gain three seats. FPV or FDT will as well gain seats mainly on the expense off federal peronism and smaller parties.

Nearly all "federal peronists" are now in Frente de Todos, particularly Sergio Massa. FPV no longer exists, but all its associated parties and organizations are in FDT (plus Massa's FR and nearly all the peronist governors). While FPV represented kirchnerismo, the FDT is a "peronist unity list" that incorporates "non-K peronists". On the other hand, parliamentary elections are very important for the future viability of ruling alliance Juntos por el Cambio (formerly Cambienos), now that the presidency seems to be lost.

According to La Nación, the projection of seats with the PASO results is the following

Chamber of Deputies (2019 seats in brackets)

Frente de Todos 117 (70)
Juntos por el Cambio (Macri and allies) 111 (48)
Non K peronists 8 (2)
Third Way (Lavagna's Consenso Federal) 6 (5)
Far Left (FIT) 2 (0)
Others 13 (5)
Total: 257

_{"Non K peronists" would win 2 seats in Córdoba (Gov Schiaretti's alliance)
"Others" are a number of provincial parties like the Civic Front for Santiago}

Senate

Frente de Todos 36 (14)
Juntos por el Cambio 28 (7)
Non K peronists 2 (0)
Third Way 1 (0)
Others 5 (3)
Total: 72 seats

https://www.lanacion.com.ar/politica/paso-2019-proyeccion-bancas-que-diputados-senadores-nid2274718#
 

[samm5]

According to La Nación, the projection of seats with the PASO results is the following

Chamber of Deputies (2019 seats in brackets)

Frente de Todos 117 (70)
Juntos por el Cambio (Macri and allies) 111 (48)
Non K peronists 8 (2)
Third Way (Lavagna's Consenso Federal) 6 (5)
Far Left (FIT) 2 (0)
Others 13 (5)
Total: 257

_{"Non K peronists" would win 2 seats in Córdoba (Gov Schiaretti's alliance)
"Others" are a number of provincial parties like the Civic Front for Santiago}

Senate

Frente de Todos 36 (14)
Juntos por el Cambio 28 (7)
Non K peronists 2 (0)
Third Way 1 (0)
Others 5 (3)
Total: 72 seats

I would also add that many categorized as "Other" will probably work with the FDT government so it's a virtual majority. It happened in previous administrations even with Macri. It depends on the legislation of course, but in general provincial parties are not really ideological, more like a vehicle of negotiation between their respective governments in exchange of "fiscal benefits" like public works or more money for their provincial budgets, etc.
 
I think the dynamic is in some aspects comparable with the relationship between canarian, basque, catalan parties with the national parties in spain but i'm not an expert in spanish politics u.u

Also, in contrast with the Kirchnerist era, the opposition is almost entirely in the same coalition now and not dispersed. However, they would probably spit after december in some degree, there are already a lot of political leaders angry with the electoral strategy that brought them into this mess specially within the UCR. When Cambiemos was formed they expected to be a partner in the government, which formally they are (they have some ministers in the cabinet) but their role was almost non-existent in terms of the important decisions, only being relevant supporting the government bills in the congress

[Velasco]

I think the dynamic is in some aspects comparable with the relationship between canarian, basque, catalan parties with the national parties in spain but i'm not an expert in spanish politics u.u

The dynamic in Spain is more complex due to the existence of a national question in Catalonia and Basque Country (distinctive identity: language, culture, history). The Basque and the Catalan nationalist parties obviously defend the interests pf their territories (case of the PNV or the now defunct CiU). But they are more than mere vehicles, as they have an ideology and a political tradition based on the defence of their particular identities. Also, there is the issue of the Catalan separatist drive (from 2010-2012 onward).

Regionalists in the Canary Islands fit netter in this categorization, particularly the Canarian Coalition which governed the archipelago between 1993 and 2019. While in power, CC was often accused of governing in a pure cacique-style (corruption, patronage, cronyism). The Islands have a strong regional identity and some particular circumstances made them more similar to Latin America (there was a process of conquest and colonization, many islanders fled to America). Their characteristics are very different from Cat or BC (as well from mainland Spain) and there is not a sizeable separatist movement.

Also, in contrast with the Kirchnerist era, the opposition is almost entirely in the same coalition now and not dispersed. However, they would probably spit after december in some degree, there are already a lot of political leaders angry with the electoral strategy that brought them into this mess specially within the UCR. When Cambiemos was formed they expected to be a partner in the government, which formally they are (they have some ministers in the cabinet) but their role was almost non-existent in terms of the important decisions, only being relevant supporting the government bills in the congress

Regarding leaders angry with Macri's strategy, I think Bs As Gov María Eugenia Vidal is one of the most injured parties. She's more popular than the president and could have performed better in a gubernatorial election separated from the general election. While Macri was in a state of shock on election night, Vidal was able to say she would be self-critical (in sharp contrast with the deranged Lilita Carrió). Do you think there exists the possibility of a rift between Vidal and Macri? Also, in case of defeat in October, is Vidal a good contender to replace Macri?

[Velasco]

In order to compare with the projection of seats based on the PASO results, it'd be useful to check the Spanish Wiki entry of the 2015 legislative elections

https://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elecciones_legislativas_de_Argentina_de_2015

Chamber of Deputies:

FPV 59
Cambiemos 47
UNA 18
Progressives 2
CF 2
FIT 1
Provincial 1


It's remarkable that Cambiemos got a similar result in the 2015 legislative and the 2019 primaries. The Macri alliance got 32% of the vote in both elections. The difference is in the support garnered by the opposition peronists (Massa and Rodríguez Saá). Many of these voters presumably helped Macri to win the second round in 2015, but this time the peronists presented a united front. Of course economic slump plays against Macri in 2019, as dire economy and corruption damaged Cristina's 'heir' Scioli in 2015.

 UNA was the coalition led by Sergio Massa. Its successor Alternativa Federal splitted after CFdK made her bid for peronist reunification, stepping aside in favour of Alberto Férnández. Massa joined Frente de Todos, Pichetto joined Macri and Lavagna led the reminder allied with the parties of the Progressive coalition (PS, GEN, Libres del Sur)

The Rodríguez Saá brothers (Compromiso Federal) splitted between Fernández and Macri

[windjammer]

What is peronism?

[Walmart_shopper]

What is peronism?

What is love?

[Velasco]

What is peronism?

What is love?

Evita is love! 😁