EU elections predictions!

[minionofmidas]

I'm sorry, what is a UKIP? It looks like it could be the acronym for United Kingdom Independent Party. Does this mean they are commited to centrism?

UK Independence Party, because right now it's presumably a European dependency.
They are committed to towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay.

[M]

I'm sorry, I don't follow. "It is presumably a European dependency" leads me to think it is very pro-EU. "towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay" leads me to think it is very Atlanticist. Both of these things are belied by its name. In short, you will have to explain in more detail. And why have I never heard of this party before?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I'm sorry, I don't follow. "It is presumably a European dependency" leads me to think it is very pro-EU. "towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay" leads me to think it is very Atlanticist. Both of these things are belied by its name. In short, you will have to explain in more detail. And why have I never heard of this party before?

I'd describe them as ultra-nationalists...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

Among those most likely to vote, UKIP beat LD.

A poll for the E.U elections in the U.K:

Con: 28%
Lab: 27%
LD: 18%
UKIP: 14%
Grn: 6%
BNP: 3%
Nats: 2%
Other: 2%
YouGov

Please note that YouGov is probably the worst polling company... ever. Take everything they say with about 20 salt mines...

[Gustaf]

Most recent Swedish poll, by a reliable company:
SAP: 35.9%
M: 24.7%
FP: 11.5%
V: 11.1%
MP: 5.9%
C: 4.4%
JL: 3.4%
KD: 2.6%
My prediction of ZERO seats for the KD is holding true. JL will get a boost now, which should be enough to give them the 4% required for a seat. SAP is WAAAAAAAAY overestimated. The respondency rate was about 51% in this poll and turnout's gonna be a lot lower than that.

SAP = Social Democrats, M = Mainstram Conservatives, V = Commies, MP = Greens.
C = Centre? KD = Christian Democrats? FP = Rightwing populists? Or ist that elsewhere in Scandinavia? And who's JL?

M are the most radical conservatives, though they're rather libertarian than conservative.

C does stand for Centre Party, and they're agrarian, rural and farmer interests. FP is liberal, kind of like FDP in Germany. Not Fremskrittspartiet, that only exists in Denmark and Norway.

JL is Junilistan, new party that's EU-critical. Wants to remain a member of the EU, but roll back the EU bureaucracy, etc.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Among those most likely to vote, UKIP beat LD.

I know but I couldn't find the numbers... not that there's any reason to bother... YouGov is a truely appalling firm...

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I seriously doubt UKIP would pull ahead of LD - surely LD has a far more advanced organization.  It's kind of like Nader polling 6% but only getting 2% at the polls.

That having been said, even a crappy polling company finding that they get 18% of the most likely voters does say something.... clearly there is a lot of anti-EU (probably more anti-Euro) sentiment growing in the UK.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I seriously doubt UKIP would pull ahead of LD - surely LD has a far more advanced organization.  It's kind of like Nader polling 6% but only getting 2% at the polls.

That having been said, even a crappy polling company finding that they get 18% of the most likely voters does say something.... clearly there is a lot of anti-EU (probably more anti-Euro) sentiment growing in the UK.

That and the insanely low turnout expected (most pundits say *20%*)...

[freek]

I'm sorry, I don't follow. "It is presumably a European dependency" leads me to think it is very pro-EU. "towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay" leads me to think it is very Atlanticist. Both of these things are belied by its name. In short, you will have to explain in more detail. And why have I never heard of this party before?

UKIP, the UK Independence Party, are the most eurosceptic party representing the UK in the European Parliament. So they are against any influence of the European Union on British politics. Their final goal is to leave the European Union. And you might have never heard of them before, because they don't have any seats in the House of Commons, because of the used FPTP-system.

The line "It is presumably a European dependency" is the UKIP's way to describe the current situation of the member states in the European Union, and the UKIP wants to change that.

[freek]

JL is Junilistan, new party that's EU-critical. Wants to remain a member of the EU, but roll back the EU bureaucracy, etc.

Do they have any relation to the Danish party Junibevaegelsen, which is also EU-critical?

[minionofmidas]

I'm sorry, I don't follow. "It is presumably a European dependency" leads me to think it is very pro-EU. "towing the UK into Chesapeake Bay" leads me to think it is very Atlanticist. Both of these things are belied by its name. In short, you will have to explain in more detail. And why have I never heard of this party before?

UKIP, the UK Independence Party, are the most eurosceptic party representing the UK in the European Parliament. So they are against any influence of the European Union on British politics. Their final goal is to leave the European Union. And you might have never heard of them before, because they don't have any seats in the House of Commons, because of the used FPTP-system.

The line "It is presumably a European dependency" is the UKIP's way to describe the current situation of the member states in the European Union, and the UKIP wants to change that.

"presumably" was the wrong word...
Is "supposedly" better? Or "according to them"?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

UKIP is basically a protest vote party... they get votes from two sorts of people:

The U.K version of "Reagan Democrats"
The "Blue Rinse Brigade"

[JohnFKennedy]

UKIP is basically a protest vote party... they get votes from two sorts of people:

The U.K version of "Reagan Democrats"
The "Blue Rinse Brigade"

UK Independence Party will probably do well, it is because all of the people who vote for them feel passionately about getting out of Europe and so are among the likely voters.

So few people feel particularly strongly about the EU elections that we have very low turnouts, only the wackos vote in large numbers, so parties like the UKIP do well.

[freek]

"presumably" was the wrong word...
Is "supposedly" better? Or "according to them"?

Something like: "The UKIP supposes that the UK is an European dependency"? Yeah, that sounds better to me.

Sometimes I also have some problems which word to choose. A disadvantage of not being a native speaker. .

[Gustaf]

JL is Junilistan, new party that's EU-critical. Wants to remain a member of the EU, but roll back the EU bureaucracy, etc.

Do they have any relation to the Danish party Junibevaegelsen, which is also EU-critical?

Sort of, though not directly linked, Junilistan has recieved some money from them and will probably join the same group (EDD). It isn't as left-winged though and also not as influential or well-organized, mostly since it's so new.

[freek]

The European Commission and the Dutch government have a conflict about the time when the official result of the elections are announced, since our elections are already June 10th. The Dutch government planned to announce the official results June 15th, as the EU requested; but single municipalities are allowed to announce their results already on the evening of June 10th. So it is possible to calculate the result by yourselve. . And the Commission doesn't like that.

[minionofmidas]

The European Commission and the Dutch government have a conflict about the time when the official result of the elections are announced, since our elections are already June 10th. The Dutch government planned to announce the official results June 15th, as the EU requested; but single municipalities are allowed to announce their results already on the evening of June 10th. So it is possible to calculate the result by yourselve. . And the Commission doesn't like that.

I can see that...in "normal" conditions you'd expect this to have an influence on the elections elsewhere, though Euro Election patterns being what they are, it won't actually matter.

[Jens]

Hi everybody!
Think it is about time I make my contribution after having been a frekvent viewer

Denmark
1999:
Socialdemokratiet (SD): 3
Radikale Venstre (RV): 1 (Social-liberal)
Konservative Folkeparti (KF): 1 (Conservative)
Centrum-Demokraterne (CD): 0 ( Centerliberal)
Socialistisk Folkeparti (SF): 1 (Socialist)
Junibevægelsen (JB): 3 (Anti - Union, not Anti-EU - there is a difference, I think??)
Folkebevægelsen mod EU (FB): 1 (Anti-EU)
Dansk Folkeparti (DF): 1 (Right-wing nationalist)
Kristendemokraterne (KD): 0 (christian center)
Venstre (V): 5 (European liberal)

This election is a bit tricky, because of several things: 1) we are only electing 14 M not 16, so somebody are going to lose a mandate
2) Venstre who won the last election has a very weak team this time
3) the former prime minister Poul Nyrup is runing as SD's top candidate
4) nobody has really been paying attention to the election and the turnout is probably going to be low. Perhaps below 50 % and that is very bad in Denmark

Here is my very preliminary predictions:
SD: 3 - 4  + 0/1
Nyrup might be able to drag an extra to SD.
RD: 1  +0
new guy but they are very popular in the cities these days
KF: 1 +0
not a strong team, but probably 1
SF: 1 +0
a very well known top candidate should give them 1, but she can be controvercial and she is pro-EU, which could cost some votes (but no. 2 on the list is anti-EU, so people will probably vote for her instead)
JB: 1 - 2 -1/2
Lost the man who gave them the 3th mandate last time (a very popular Danish actor) and one of the longest serving menbers (15 years). Will lose 1 and perhaps 2 M
FB: 1 - 2 +0/1
There is a chance that FB will regain the mandate they lost at the last election. It all depends on those 2 mandates Denmark has lost
DF: 1 +0
same top candidate as last time. Wellknown and somebody do like him!! their anti-EU and very nationalistic campaign hits right in the heart of what the Danes call the Privet Fascists ;-)
V: 2 - 3
As mentioned earlier, a very weak team and Venstre (who is in power in Denmark) has be polling very badly lately. They very well risk that their voters stay home on the 13th

I hope that I can give a better prediction when some reliable polls turn up!

Jens

[Gustaf]

I get a maximum of only 15 seats from that... I expereinced the same problem when I made my first prediction...welcome to the forum, it's nice to see another Scandinavian on here.

[lidaker]

Velkommen, Jens! Knallert pige pære pølse smørrebrød halvfjerds!!

[lidaker]

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

[Jens]

I get a maximum of only 15 seats from that... I expereinced the same problem when I made my first prediction...welcome to the forum, it's nice to see another Scandinavian on here.

Thank you Gustav
About the numbers. I know that I don't hit 14 seat but it is very difficult to predict the results because of the posible Poul Nyrup-effect and the incredible lack of polls.
There is nothing in the news about the elections. It's all about Iraq and our prime minister visiting Bush (it is terrible listening to his lousy english (Anders Fogh, not Bush ;-))

[Jens]

Velkommen, Jens! Knallert pige pære pølse smørrebrød halvfjerds!!

Tack så mycke - moped, flicka, päron, korv, smörgås, sjutti.... Denmark isn't that the capital of Sweden :-D

[Umengus]

EU election in Belgium in 1999 (25 seats)


VLD (liberal NL)  13,61% 3 seats  
PRL-FDF (liberal FR) 10,15 3  
CVP (social-catholics NL) 13,49 3  
PSC (social catholics FR) 5,16 2  
PS  (Socialist FR) 9,65 3  
SP  (Socialist NL) 8,84 2  
Vlaams Blok (extreme right NL) 9,39 2  
Ecolo (Green FR) 8,54 3
Agalev (Green NL) 7,46 2  
Volksunie (nationalist NL)  7,57 2
FN (Extreme right FR) 1,52 0

Predictions for 2004 (24 seats)
(13 for NL and 11 for FR)


VLD: 1 or 2
MR: 3
CVP+ NVA (ex-VU): 4 or 5
PSC: 2
PS: 4 or 5
SP+ Spirit (ex-VU): 3
ECOLO: 1 or 2
Agalev: 0 or 1
VB: 3
FN: 0 or 1



A good link for elections (EU, national,...) in each countries (it's in french but it's easy to use)
http://www.ulb.ac.be/soco/cevipol/documentation/documentation-elections.htm

[Gustaf]

Prediction for the Swedish EU elections:

Left Party (GUE/NGL) 2 (-1)
Social Democrats (PSE) 6 (+/-0)
Greens (Greens/EFA) 1 (-1)
Centre Party (ELDR) 1 (+/-0)
Liberal Party (ELDR) 3 (+/-0)
Libertarians/Conservatives (EPP-ED) 5 (+/-0)
Christian Democrats (EPP-ED) 0 (-2)
June Ballot (EDD) 1 (-)

Hm, that's like a mirror image of my current prediction... (I don't remember if I updated the last one here on the forum though). Though, I think that C might lose their seat. Also, SAP might still fall badly, their voters won't vote on electino day, I think. JL might surprise and get a 2nd seat, but that would require luck, obviously. It could happen if both C and KD get below 4% though.