Canadian by-elections, 2012

[RogueBeaver]

Them Reds aren't happy with Crockatt as Calgary Centre's next MP, from Redford on down.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/08/wildrose-and-progressive-conservatives-divided-over-nominee-for-calgary-federal-riding/

[King of Kensington]

https://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/15603_Durham_Calgary__Victoria_By-Elections_%28Forum_Research%29_%2820121113%29.pdf

Indeed, if this poll is accurate...the Conservatives could lose in Calgary!

[MaxQue]

23% for the Greens in Calgary. Sure....

[RogueBeaver]

Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

[Hatman 🍁]

Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

[DC Al Fine]

Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

Greens, 20+% in Calgary. Sure they might be right, but that result has no other polls to back it up and is incredibly wacky. I'll stay skeptical for now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Uhh... I wouldn't discount Forum Research. After all, everyone predicted the WR would win, and FR was the only pollster to catch a last minute switch to the PCs.

FR did a good job with the provincial by-election in Waterloo.

Greens, 20+% in Calgary. Sure they might be right, but that result has no other polls to back it up and is incredibly wacky. I'll stay skeptical for now.

They also have the Greens in 2nd place in Victoria, which is rather fun.

The Liberals winning Calgary Centre is not unfathomable. This is a by-election after all, and the riding includes a safe provincial Liberal seat (Calgary Buffalo).

[DL]

I'm very sceptical about that poll. It could see the Tories losing Calgary Centre if there was a two way race and the opposition vote consolidated behind one candidate - kind of like the way the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008 and again in 2011 where it was literally 43% NDP 42%CPC and with the Libs and Greens in low single digits. When the Reform Party lost Calgary Centre to Joe Clark in 2000 it was also a two way race where the Liberal and NDP vote literally evaporated and consolidated behind Joe Clark

But I cannot see the Conservative vote in Calgary Centre falling as low as 32% where they could lose in a four way race with even the NDP in the teens. I think that the Tory "floor" in Calgary Centre is probably about 40% and this poll has them way too low.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The record of Canadian riding polls isn't any better than that of British constituency polls, so... er...

[MaxQue]

Crap poll from the same people who said Wildrose and the PQ would win thumping majorities.

Well, the problem with their Quebec polls were wierd assumptions in their results, like the one which give Liberals leading in Northern suburbs of Montreal (did they won more than a seat there since the 70's?).

[adma]

I'm very sceptical about that poll. It could see the Tories losing Calgary Centre if there was a two way race and the opposition vote consolidated behind one candidate - kind of like the way the NDP won Edmonton-Strathcona in 2008 and again in 2011 where it was literally 43% NDP 42%CPC and with the Libs and Greens in low single digits. When the Reform Party lost Calgary Centre to Joe Clark in 2000 it was also a two way race where the Liberal and NDP vote literally evaporated and consolidated behind Joe Clark

But I cannot see the Conservative vote in Calgary Centre falling as low as 32% where they could lose in a four way race with even the NDP in the teens. I think that the Tory "floor" in Calgary Centre is probably about 40% and this poll has them way too low.

Then again, it's Calgary Centre.  And unlike 2000, we're dealing w/a governing party to protest against (even w/a native-son leader)--and echoing the provincial scene hereabouts, the Grits may well be a reasonable parking lot for "Red Tory" voters.

I also wonder whether Joe Clark might have done even better vs the Alliance in 2000 had he not been pre-judged a loser in a lost cause...

[Smid]

So... Greens voters in Calgary Centre...

37% aged 35-44 said they'd vote Green, compared to just 25% aged 18-24. Those aged 45-54 were also more likely to vote Green than the younger cohort (32%).

40% of those earning between $80k and $100k also said they'd vote Green.

NDP getting nailed - only 36% of those who voted NDP in the General Election said they would vote NDP in the by-election. Almost as many (34%) said they'd vote Green instead.

I don't think the poll is accurate, personally, but I could be wrong.

[Hatman 🍁]

They'll probably do another one closer to the election.

[DL]

Then again, it's Calgary Centre.  And unlike 2000, we're dealing w/a governing party to protest against (even w/a native-son leader)--

Yes, but in case you haven't noticed Harper and the Conservatives seem to be very popular in Alberta...also while the riding is called Calgary Centre, its not as "inner city" as you might think. First of all the west half of the riding is actually a very wealthy old money area that is rock ribbed Tory and the more downtown area has a lot of very expensive condos...this is Calgary after all - everything is pretty upscale.

[King of Kensington]

Yeah it's hard to believe...but it could be a "Joe Clark" type situation.  It is the most progressive riding in Calgary.

However I expect if the Liberals actually do take it they're likely to read too much into it and see it as evidence as Trudeau-mania and how only they not the NDP can win etc.  I could imagine CC as a "Lib Dem" type seat in a "UK style" parliament.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals did quite well in the area in the 2008 provincial election, perhaps even winning the most votes on the federal boundaries. But, that was their best election in the city.

FWIW, the area was also a strong Nenshi area in the mayoral election. And we're talking municipal election type turnout...

[DL]

Yeah it's hard to believe...but it could be a "Joe Clark" type situation.  It is the most progressive riding in Calgary.

However I expect if the Liberals actually do take it they're likely to read too much into it and see it as evidence as Trudeau-mania and how only they not the NDP can win etc.  I could imagine CC as a "Lib Dem" type seat in a "UK style" parliament.

I'm not so sure about that. The riding across the river from Calgary centre that includes the university area may actually be mor "progressive" than CC

[King of Kensington]

You're right, Calgary Centre NORTH may be the "Strathcona" of Calgary.

[adma]

It truly depends on whether one means "NDP progressive" or "Liberal/Green/Red Tory progressive", of course--the latter which might have more clout w/the Mount Royal + condos bunch.  After all, this is Calgary's Smitherman Nation, not their Ford Nation....

[Hatman 🍁]

If the boundaries were more like the old Calgary Centre, where it included areas on both sides of the river, it would be a better riding for the Liberals to win.

[mileslunn]

Forum was the closest on the Ontario election and they were pretty much spot on for the recent provincial by-elections.  I agree I would be shocked if the Tories lost Calgary Centre nonetheless I think they are more likely to lose there than Durham although I doubt they will lose in either.  Central Calgary is not a left wing riding, but its pretty centrist; its not as conservative as some might think.  If it were a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would win hands down and likewise between the PCs and Reform Party I think it would go PC.  Also some of it may be local candidate as before the nomination the Tories had a massive lead, but there was a lot of controversy as I believe Joan Crockett is not well liked by local Tories and she also hails from the WRA side, not the provincial PCs so some provincial PCs I've heard are supporting the Liberals so this maybe more a local candidate thing.  Think of it like Indiana and Missouri for the senate races.  Romney easily won both states, but their GOP candidates who were unpopular with the establishment and too extreme lost. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum was the closest on the Ontario election and they were pretty much spot on for the recent provincial by-elections.  I agree I would be shocked if the Tories lost Calgary Centre nonetheless I think they are more likely to lose there than Durham although I doubt they will lose in either.  Central Calgary is not a left wing riding, but its pretty centrist; its not as conservative as some might think.  If it were a battle between the Democrats and the Republicans, the Democrats would win hands down and likewise between the PCs and Reform Party I think it would go PC.  Also some of it may be local candidate as before the nomination the Tories had a massive lead, but there was a lot of controversy as I believe Joan Crockett is not well liked by local Tories and she also hails from the WRA side, not the provincial PCs so some provincial PCs I've heard are supporting the Liberals so this maybe more a local candidate thing.  Think of it like Indiana and Missouri for the senate races.  Romney easily won both states, but their GOP candidates who were unpopular with the establishment and too extreme lost. 

Umm... the riding already went Reform over the PCs... in 1993 and 1997.

[adma]

Umm... the riding already went Reform over the PCs... in 1993 and 1997.

And probably would've gone for Reform's Alliance successors in 2000 were Joe Clark not the PC candidate.

[mileslunn]

The Liberals + PCs however exceeded the Reform Party in 1993 and 1997.  Never mind as someone with family from Alberta I kind of understand this area.  Many of the over 50 crowd still hate the Liberals for the National Energy Program and even if they are more centrist will not vote Liberal for that reason, whereas amongst the under 40 crowd, many don't remember this thus don't vote conservative as religiously as their parents.  Calgary maybe the most Conservative city in Canada but it is not nearly as right wing as some think.  Also the Alberta PCs are a very powerful political machine and if their supporters help the Liberals this could make the difference.  Lets remember there is still a lot of bad blood with the WRA so the fact Joan Crockett is a WRA supporter no doubt probably motivates many PC supporters to volunteer for the Liberals.  I think if it was a general election it would go Conservative and barring any major scandal I think the Conservatives will easily win it in 2015 but since electing a Liberal or Green wouldn't affect the overall house standings; the Tories still have a majority, it becomes more about which candidate they like better.  I still think the Tories are the frontrunners but I don't think it is as safe as some think.

[MaxQue]

That could explain things.

In recent polls, the PC lead over Wildrose increased.
It was 10 at the election, now it's around 16-17 points.