LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[DINGO Joe]

Edwards 52 Tweedle Dumb 23 Tweedle Dee 22

[ElectionsGuy]

Here's my prediction map (non-Atlas colors) of combined Dem vs Rep vote, with the expectation of JBE narrowly getting sucked into a runoff 49% (50-51% with the other Dem) vs combined R vote of 47-48%. Yellow counties are bellwethers. I'm expecting the most R swing in Cajun country, the most D swing in Baton Rouge and New Orleans suburbs, and least amount of swing in NoLA.

[Gass3268]

I hear it’s raining in NoNOLA, JBE is canceled.

[smoltchanov]

Here's my prediction map (non-Atlas colors) of combined Dem vs Rep vote, with the expectation of JBE narrowly getting sucked into a runoff 49% (50-51% with the other Dem) vs combined R vote of 47-48%. Yellow counties are bellwethers. I'm expecting the most R swing in Cajun country, the most D swing in Baton Rouge and New Orleans suburbs, and least amount of swing in NoLA.

Expecting similar results. Cajun country moved heavily to the right since 2008, IMHO - more because of continuing liberalisation of national (and, to lesser degree, state) party on social issues, which began to trump populist instincts on economy for many Cajuns (may be - partly because Obama too, but i doubt that it was the most important factor). Most of Republican gains in state legislature will also happen in that area or nearby..

[Oryxslayer]

Here's my prediction map (non-Atlas colors) of combined Dem vs Rep vote, with the expectation of JBE narrowly getting sucked into a runoff 49% (50-51% with the other Dem) vs combined R vote of 47-48%. Yellow counties are bellwethers. I'm expecting the most R swing in Cajun country, the most D swing in Baton Rouge and New Orleans suburbs, and least amount of swing in NoLA.

Similar map except:

Red River and Claiborne should be for JBE, they are more democratic then some of the blue counties  listed.

De Soto  and Comparatively Urban Calcasieu in the bellwether category.

St. Bernard is probably the bellwethers bellwether.

But I agree with the trend prediction.

[Burke Bro]

My final prediction for the jungle primary:

Edwards (D): 44%
Rispone (R): 30%
Abraham (R): 22%

[jaichind]

The early vote numbers does not look good for Edwards.   I suspect he comes in around 45% in the primary.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The early vote numbers does not look good for Edwards.   I suspect he comes in around 45% in the primary.

Something like this. I’m not at all optimistic about this race’s trajectory

[Lechasseur]

Right info directly from Louisiana: I spoke to my brother on the phone as he was in his way to his polling station today and he told me JBE is basically a lock on reelection and he thinks he'll actually win outright in the primary, and if he doesn't he does not see how Abraham or Rispone beat him in the runoff.

[Lechasseur]

Frankly don't get too worried, JBE will probably be fine.

[Lechasseur]

My reply on one of the poll threads:

The thing is though that the two Republican candidates are both pretty weak, I doubt they manage to rally the GOP around them enough to beat JBE.

JBE isn't seen as a raging liberal there so as a result what's going on in DC will not be enough to oust him.

[Xing]

Modifying my prediction slightly:

Edwards 48%
Rispone 25%
Abraham 21%

Sticking with a 3-point win for Edwards in the run-off, though I'll likely modify that depending on the results tonight (if there is a run-off.)

[KaiserDave]

Edwards will fall BARELY short of winning outright tonight.

[I Can Now Die Happy]

Before I leave to see the mother of my future kid, I'll drop in a couple helpful links. Couldn't find a map based view of the 2015 results anywhere for comparison to today, so you'll have to compare results using these links.

Oct 24 2015 primary results: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2015-10-24/resultsRegion/50499

Nov 21 2015 runoff results: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/static/2015-11-21/resultsRegion/53518

For a more graphical view, check here and navigate the drop-down menus: https://voterportal.sos.la.gov/Graphical

JBE got 40% in the Oct 24 2015 primaries, so you can somewhat compare estimate what he'd need to get 50% by giving him uniform swings of +10% in each parish, though obviously uniform swings won't happen.

Today: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-governor-primary-election.html

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

5 hours until poll closing. Can't wait to see the results! 

[Oryxslayer]

This is sexy, the NYT page (paywalled for no-subs) will have a live precinct map. So here's a couple Miles LA maps for comparison:





He surprisingly doesn't have a map easily accessible of the 2015 runoff, but this site has the six largest counties.



   

   

Interactive 2016 US President Map by Precinct, but JBE will easily outperform this.

[2016]

Results Page from the New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/12/us/elections/results-louisiana-primary-elections.html

[junior chįmp]

I had no idea this election was today

[Adam Griffin]

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

Early reports of [adjective] turnout in [location] suggest [noun] for [party/candidate]

[Adam Griffin]

I had no idea this election was today

[Progressive]

Wait so if JBE wins outright 50% + 1 there's no general election?

[soundchaser]

Wait so if JBE wins outright 50% + 1 there's no general election?

Correct.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I had no idea this election was today

I think Saturday’s make a lot more sense than having elections on Tuesdays

[Young Conservative]

My family went out and voted for JBE today. They’re democrats though so not indicative of republicans for JBE or anything.

[Bidenworth2020]

I have to be honest- I miss the anecdotal turnout reports that were usually wrong.