Ireland Election 2007

[Democratic Hawk]

FF and the Greens will hold exploratory talks tomorrow morning at Government Buildings.

FF Press Release:
"Fianna Fáil and the Green Party have this afternoon separately completed their study and assessment of the policy and discussion documents which they exchanged in recent days.

Fianna Fáil has now been informed by the Green Party that, following meetings of their Parliamentary Party and their National Executive Council, that the documents contain sufficient common policy objectives to allow for formal talks to commence between both sides, as to the possible formation of a coalition government. Fianna Fail is of a similar view.

Talks, therefore, have now been arranged between delegations from both parties, beginning tomorrow morning and continuing, it's expected, for a number of days."

The Greens, with 6 seats, will have to negotiate favourable terms with FF, if they are to avoid alientating their voters should they enter a Ahern-led coalition government.

I suspect Green transfers favoured Labour and FG rather than FF (though I may be grossly generalising things here)

Dave

[Јas]

The Greens, with 6 seats, will have to negotiate favourable terms with FF, if they are to avoid alientating their voters should they enter a Ahern-led coalition government.

Even if they get favourable terms, it might not be enough. Labour in 1992 essentially got everything they asked for, but still the government fell and the electorate punished them at the next election.

I suspect Green transfers favoured Labour and FG rather than FF (though I may be grossly generalising things here)

Well let's take a look...

There were 23 distributions, which were solely Green transfers in the election. I'll take a lot at most of them...

Dublin N
This is the one case where there was the option of a Green to Green distribution.

Joe Corr's 1897 votes distributed:
Green 1159 (61.1%)
Soc 202 (10.6%)
FF 180 (9.5%)
FG 173 (9.1%)
Lab 131 (6.9%)
Non-Transferable 52 (2.7%)

Dublin W
Roderic O'Gorman's 1417 votes went as follows:
FF 132 (9.3%)
FG 393 (27.7%)
Lab 458 (32.3%)
SF 94 (6.6%)
Soc 282 (19.9%)
N-T 58 (4.1%)

Dublin Central
Patricia McKenna's 2294 votes distributed on the 5th Count:
Lab 781 (34%)
Ind (Gregory) 737 (32.1%)
FG 296 (12.9%)
SF 204 (8.9%)
FF 179 (7.8%)
N-T 97 (4.2%)

Limerick W
James Nix's 969 votes split as follows:
Lab 410 (42.3%)
FG 326 (33.6%)
FF 122 (12.6%)
PD 58 (6%)
N-T 53 (5.5%)

Donegal NE
Frank Gallagher's 546 votes:
Lab 121 (22.2%)
SF 107 (19.6%)
FG 100 (18.3%)
FF 98 (17.9%)
Ind (Harte) 62 (11.4%)
N-T 30 (5.5%)
Ind (McGarvey) 28 (5.1%)

Waterford
Brendan McCann's 1206:
Lab 364 (30.2%)
FG 363 (30.1%)
SF 144 (11.9%)
Worker's Party 132 (10.9%)
FF 127 (10.5%)
N-T 76 (6.3%)

Laois-Offaly
Máire McKay's 902:
FG 303 (33.6%)
Lab 181 (20.1%)
FF 134 (14.9%)
SF 113 (12.5%)
PD 66 (7.3%)
N-T 57 (6.3%)
Ind (Bracken) 48 (5.3%)

Sligo-Leitrim N
Brain Scanlon's 1240:
FG 413 (33.3%)
SF 291 (23.5%)
Lab 258 (20.1%)
FF 193 (15.6%)
N-T 85 (6.6%)

Kildare N
Shane Fitzgerald's 2668:
Ind (Murphy) 852 (39.3%)
Lab 752 (28.2%)
FG 592 (22.2%)
FF 280 (10.5%)
N-T 192 (7.2%)

Cork NW
Caroline Robinson's 1687:
Lab 692 (41%)
FG 510 (30.2%)
FF 362 (21.5%)
N-T 123 (7.9%)

Cork NC
Chris O'Leary's 1690:
Lab 591 (35%)
FG 427 (25.3%)
SF 155 (9.2%)
Soc 154 (9.1%)
N-T 128 (7.6%)
FF 121 (7.2%)
Ind (McCarthy) 114 (6.7%)

Meath E
Seán Ó Buachalla's 1547:
Lab 520 (33.6%)
FG 393 (25.4%)
Ind (Fitzgerald) 192 (12.4%)
FF 159 (10.3%)
SF 149 (9.6%)
N-T 134 (8.7%)

Clare
Brian Meaney's 3605:
FG 1689 (46.9%)
Ind (Breen) 792 (22%)
FF 773 (21.4%)
N-T 351 (9.7%)

Galway W
Niall Ó Brolcháin's 4332:
Lab 2532 (58.4%)
FG 747 (17.2%)
N-T 469 (10.8%)
FF 408 (9.4%)
PD 176 (4.1%)

Cork SW
Quentin Gargan's 3293:
Lab 1441 (43.8%)
FG 1069 (32.5%)
FF 409 (12.4%)
N-T 374 (11.4%)

Limerick E
Trish Brennan-Forde's 1619:
Lab 680 (42%)
FG 332 (20.5%)
N-T 198 (12.2%)
SF 153 (9.5%)
PD 139 (8.6%)
FF 117 (7.2%)

Meath E
Brian Flanagan's 1194:
FG 460 (38.5%)
Lab 363 (30.4%)
SF 221 (18.5%)
N-T 150 (12.6%)

Dublin SC
Tony McDermott's 3781:
Lab 2156 (57%)
FG 613 (16.2%)
N-T 589 (15.6%)
SF 423 (11.2%)

Cork SC
Dan Boyle's 6994:
FG 2631 (37.6%)
Lab 2556 (36.7%)
N-T 1178 (16.8%)
FF 619 (8.9%)
 
Kildare S
JJ Power's 2658:
Lab 1433 (53.9%)
FG 702 (26.4%)
N-T 523 (19.7%)

Wicklow
Deirdre deBúrca's 7144:
Lab 3440 (58.2%)
FG 1792 (25.1%)
N-T 1412 (19.8%)
FF 500 (7%)

Louth
Mark Dearey's 5225:
FG 2297 (44%)
SF 1567 (30%)
N-T 1361 (26%)

[Јas]

The following ratios are gotten when comparing only those constituencies where the respective parties could get transfers:

FF:FG:Lab - 1 : 2.6 : 3.8
(i.e. for every 1 FF transfer, FG got 2.6 and Lab got 3.8 )
(The ratios are the same for just FF:FG and FF:Lab)

Some others...
FG:Lab - 1 : 1.6
FF:FG:Lab:SF - 1 : 2.4 : 3.1 : 1.1

[Democratic Hawk]

Thanks Jas

The following ratios are gotten when comparing only those constituencies where the respective parties could get transfers:

FF:FG:Lab - 1 : 2.6 : 3.8
(i.e. for every 1 FF transfer, FG got 2.6 and Lab got 3.8 )
(The ratios are the same for just FF:FG and FF:Lab)

Some others...
FG:Lab - 1 : 1.6
FF:FG:Lab:SF - 1 : 2.4 : 3.1 : 1.1

It would seem that Green voters clearly prefer the center-left option when it comes to a national government, however, when you add all FG, Labour and Green TD's together, they are still one short of FF - and there lies the problem

A FF-Green-PD coalition surely gives a Ahern-led government that bit more stability than having to rely on temperamental Independents

Dave

[Јas]

It would seem that Green voters clearly prefer the center-left option when it comes to a national government

Well, they certainly are not big fans of FF.
Here's some more Green transfer ratios,
FF:Green = 1 : 6.44
FF:Independent = 1 : 1.62
FF:Socialist = 1 : 1.48
FF:Sinn Féin = 1 : 1.12
FF: Worker's Party = 1 : 1.04

Even...
FF:Non-Transferable = 1 : 1.03

In fact, there's only one party/group that Green voters prefer less than FF. Unsurprisingly it's the Progressive Democrats.
FF:PD = 1 : 0.56


Given all these transfer ratios, the average Green voter clearly supported coalition with Lab and FG (in that order) and very clearly wanted an end to the FF-PD government. The Green leadership must know that their voters are this way inclined. Given that, in surprises me just how enthusiastically they've engaged with FF in negotiations.

On these numbers, I'd expect the Greens to be punished by their voters (likely to the greatest benefit of Labour) if they enter government with FF or FF and the PDs, unless they can deliver and look like they're delivering on most of their major policy planks. (In fact if the Greens enter any government formation, I'd expect them to lose a certain proportion of their voters who are more anti-establishment than anything else - these votes likely going to the hard left or certain Independents.)

A FF-Green-PD coalition surely gives a Ahern-led government that bit more stability than having to rely on temperamental Independents

In the last few days talk of FF/Grn/PD has increased. It would put Ahern in a stronger position for the lifetime of such a government than dealing with either individually, as both the PDs and Greens would know that the government could continue without them.

I'd actually consider both the Greens and PDs much more likely to abandon an Ahern government than just about any of the Independents (the Greens particularly). Both Healy-Rae and Gregory have before used their votes to help hold up governments, for example. For this reason, I'd nearly expect Ahern to make a deal with some Independents anyway as a back-up to the parties.

[Јas]

The final scheduled cabinet meeting of the 29th Dáil has been held. As to the constitution of the next cabinet, that is still in play.

It seems that tomorrow could very well be D-Day for the Greens. After Day 4 of their negotiations with FF, one of the Green's leading negotiators, Dan Boyle (ex-Cork SC), stated that agreement would either be reached tomorrow or not at all.

The Greens have set up for a conference on Sunday, the purpose of which is to put a vote to the Green membership on whether or not to accept whatever deal (if any) emerges from the negotiations.

My feeling for quite some time now has been that it is Mary Harney (carrying only those 2 PD votes) who holds the strongest hand in terms of deciding the next government. This has been on the wane recently given the apparant success of the FF-Green talks (in that they're actually still talking after 4 days). Harney this evening has concluded, what RTÉ described as a "lengthy meeting with Enda Kenny ... to discuss government formation".

Little has emerged as to the importance that should be attached to these talks. What is noticeable in recent days has been that Enda Kenny is bringing up the Taoiseach's finances as a relevant issue. Compare this with the campaign, when he refused to talk on the subject except to say that he was happy for the Tribunal to deal with it. The change is clearly aimed head on at Harney, whom it is widely believed had great concern over the issue during the campaign.

[Јas]

Day 5 of the FF-Green talks come to a close and still no firm answers.

Some quotes...
The Green Party's Dan Boyle said:
"It seems we have agreed a lot and after five days it also seems we have agreed nothing."
"We did give today as a deadline. Certainly tomorrow morning is the furthest we can push this out in any conceivable sense."

John Gormley (Green Chairman; Dublin SE):
[The talks are facing] "very significant difficulties".
"There are no guarantees we will reach an agreement. We have taken direction from our party members, and they are uppermost in our minds at the moment."
"It is going to be very difficult to reach an agreement."

The FF side is more positive, one of their delegation Noel Dempsey (Minister for Communications; Meath W) described the chances of coalition as "very, very possible."

We do know that they have not discussed the possibility of the PDs jumping in as well, which is surprising as the divergence between Green and PD health positions is considerable.

The Green imposed dealine that was set for today has now been moved back until tomorrow morning. As stated they have a conference set for Sunday to pur matters to the party membership, so they are under a certain amount of pressure to come to some conclusions. Just what they will be and indeed when they will be, are still unknown.

[Democratic Hawk]

Fianna Fail and Greens fail to reach agreement

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0608/election.html

Talks between the Green Party and Fianna Fáil over the formation of a new government have broken down ...

... Meanwhile, former Labour leader Ruairí Quinn said that Labour would continue to back the Enda Kenny for Taoiseach as per the 'Mullingar Accord'

However he added that if Mr Kenny were not elected, the situation would then change.



Change What's the likelihood of Labour backing Ahern should Kenny not be elected?

Dave

[minionofmidas]

Victory!

[Јas]

Fianna Fail and Greens fail to reach agreement

Given the number of issues over which they fundamentally disagreed (housing and planning matters; local government reform; co-location in health care; emissions targets; education; American use of Shannon airport; transport generally and the M3 motorway in particular...), it amazes me that they managed to continue negotiations for 6 days - surely it should have been clear much much earlier that a deal was impossible.

Change What's the likelihood of Labour backing Ahern should Kenny not be elected?

Still quite unlikely. It's emerged that FF have been in negotiations with the PDs since yesterday morning. It seems that Harney may have made up her mind - though the collapse of these talks puts her in an even stronger position. (The shopping lists of the Independents should also have grown.)

FF/PD/Inds has to be the strong favourite now. Unless Mary Harney isn't happy with whatever she can get from the negotiations any other alternative would have to be seen as a long shot.

If this doesn't work then it may be a close call between FF/Lab and FG/Lab/Grn/PD/Inds as to the next most likely. Again this will be largely dependent on... Mary Harney and what deal she can be offered (which couldn't possibly be close to what FF can offer). What she wants (the Health Ministry) would presumably be unacceptable to both Labour and the Greens.

If the FF/PD negotiations don't hold up then the cards are in the air... but at this point the return of effectively the same 2 party coalition government for a 3rd term (completely unprecedented) looks fairly likely.

[Kevinstat]

I know which Independents are ex-FF, ex-FG, and "true Independents" and I know (and know where to keep track) of which of those Independents have been approched and which have entertained talks with both major parties, but I'm curious as to which Independents are closer ideologically with the PDs and which are closer ideologically with Labour and the Greens (which I'm sure have some ideological differences themselves or else they'd be one party - only the dinosaur parties remain separate over a 74-year old civil war that is older than they are.

[Јas]

I know which Independents are ex-FF, ex-FG, and "true Independents" and I know (and know where to keep track) of which of those Independents have been approched and which have entertained talks with both major parties, but I'm curious as to which Independents are closer ideologically with the PDs and which are closer ideologically with Labour and the Greens (which I'm sure have some ideological differences themselves or else they'd be one party - only the dinosaur parties remain separate over a 74-year old civil war that is older than they are.

Well let's see...
1. Jackie Healy-Rae (Kerry S)
As noted ex-FF and almost de facto FF TD. Supported the 97-02 FF/PD government, so he mustn't have much trouble with the PDs. He has made comments just the other day which were clearly painted him as opposed to the Greens - primarily for reasons of rural housing development, and a general distrust of the Greens in rural and agricultural communities. A group which Healy-Rae draws his major support from.

2. Beverley Flynn (Mayo)
Removed from FF during the last term after losing a libel case which could yet see her bankrupted, if RTÉ pursue costs. If they do, she could well be lose her  seat by default in a few months resulting in a Mayo bye-election and an almost certain FG gain. Was part of the FF backbenches for the 97-02 FF/PD government and I don't recall her having any qualms with them. Her actual views are unknown, though her father (a former party bigwig) originally opposed the FF/PD coalition in 1987 on a general anti-coalition basis.

3. Michael Lowry (Tipperary S)
Former senior Minister for FG. Has made statements recently strongly indicating that he's willing to do a deal with Ahern. Presumably as a FG man would have no real qualms with Labour and I suppose the PDs, who aren't a huge distance from FG in many ideological respects. As a rural TD, the Greens may actually have been a bit of an issue, btu if Lowry is so evidently willing to deal with FF, I doubt any of the parties (barring SF) would cause him any difficulties.

4. Tony Gregory (Dublin C)
Gregory is of the left, so would likely have no problems with Labour or the Greens. Famously in 1982, after his first election, his vote was bought by Charlie Haughey in return for very significant investment in inner city Dublin. There's no doubt that Gregory would do a deal with FF, for the right price, or indeed FG for that matter. While he may have issues with PD policies, I really don't believe that the presence of the PDs would inhibit his ability to make a deal.

5. Finian McGrath (Dublin NC)
Another left leaning independnet judging by his stance on a number of issues. Would have no problems with Labour or the Greens. His comments recently indicate that he is very clearly willing to sell his vote, maybe too willing. Almost certainly closest to Gregory and willing to jump on a similar deal.

[Kevinstat]

How do by-elections to the Dáil Éireann work?  Is it one-winner STV (IRV, or the "Alternative Vote" if you're a Brit )?  That would seem most likely, although not exactly fair to the smaller parties particularly if the vacancy was held by one of theirs, but if you don't have a backup list as you do in the Northern Ireland Assembly that that is probably the best that can be done.  Would it work the same way if Beverly Flynn were actually still a member of FF at the time she was expelled/forced out and had been at the time of this just past election (ie. an IRV special election rather than an FF TD automatically getting in or some method which keeps the dispersion of votes in the last general election in mind)?  FG would still be likely to win the seat in a non-proportional one-winner election as this is Mayo (although the FG advantage there now may have more to do with it being Edna Kenny's home base than anything).

[Јas]

How do by-elections to the Dáil Éireann work?  Is it one-winner STV (IRV, or the "Alternative Vote" if you're a Brit )?  That would seem most likely, although not exactly fair to the smaller parties particularly if the vacancy was held by one of theirs, but if you don't have a backup list as you do in the Northern Ireland Assembly that that is probably the best that can be done.  Would it work the same way if Beverly Flynn were actually still a member of FF at the time she was expelled/forced out and had been at the time of this just past election (ie. an IRV special election rather than an FF TD automatically getting in or some method which keeps the dispersion of votes in the last general election in mind)?  FG would still be likely to win the seat in a non-proportional one-winner election as this is Mayo (although the FG advantage there now may have more to do with it being Edna Kenny's home base than anything).

Whenever a sitting TD dies or resigns or for whatever other reason a seat opens up, a by-election is held. It is on the same rules and system as the PR-STV we always use, except there's only 1 seat so a quoat is 50%+1, se essentially it's IRV. The party status of the Deputy is irrelevant in this regard, it's only official importance is (IIRC) that the party will move the writ to call the by-election, so have some control over the timing.

Yes, Mayo would be particularly likely to return a FG TD in a by-election in the near future. Enda Kenny's leadership would help but then even at other times Mayo has proved fertile ground for FG. (I'd note that Enda Kenny himself entered the Dáil in a by-election in 1975 from Mayo.)

Given the system, the larger parties would, at least in theory have an advantage. However, as far as I'm aware, no Government party has won a by-election in my lifetime. (I think 1982 was the last government victory.)

In the last Dáil, 2 by-elections were called at the same time. John Bruton (FG; former Taoiseach) resigned his seat to take up position as the new EU ambassador to the US. Around the same time the Minister for Finance Charlie McCreevy (FF) took up a Commissionarship in Brussels.

Bruton's seat, in the old Meath constituency, was won by Shane McEntee (FG). He topped the poll by about 800 votes from the FF candidate, but won the seat because of reasonable transfers from Labour and the fact that SF voters seemed to prefer not tarnsfering on than continuing on to FF. It was an energising point for FG which still had doubts about whether recovery from 2002 was possible and whether or not Kenny was doing well enough.

In Kildare North, McCreevy's seat was won by a left-leaning Independent, Catherine Murphy. Both Murphy and the FF candidate (Áine Brady) polled just under half the quota. Heavy transfers from FG and Labour safely returned Murphy.

In general, if a party is in opposition, it is likely to retain the seat at a by-election. If in government, the seat is expected to be lost and it could go anywhere.

[Kevinstat]

Thanks, Jas.

If two vacancies in the same constituency occured at the same time (or close to the same time), would there be a 2-winner STV election?  Has that (or two 1-winner STV elections in the same Dáil Éirean constituency at the same time if that's the way it's done) ever happened?

This will be the last of my questions for now, and I will actually try to research that quickly myself.  Your Elections Ireland site (I think it's yours) and the nations official site might have a list of by-elections I can check out.

[Kevinstat]

I just answered my own question.  The answer is that there can be multi-winner STV by-elections.  There were a couple as early as 1925, although the law could have changed since then, although the basics of Ireland's election law - the method of election at least - seems to have remarkable stability for a country with an alternative (from FTTP) election system.  I can't see any more 2-winner ones yet.

[Јas]

As you've seen there has been such by-elections, but not for over 80 years. That was when 8 TDs resigned from the government party (Cummann na nGaeghael, forerunner to FG essentially) and from the Dáil in protest over the Government's handling of the Army Mutiny of late 1924. The 8 dubbed themselves the "National Group". Only 1 of the 8, Sean Milroy contested a by-election, in Dublin North, but fared poorly. The group withered and most eventually found themselves back in CnaG or later FG.

The resignations resulted in 2 dual by-elections in Dublin North and Sligo-Leitrim. In the other four normal by-elections CnaG held the seats, but here both constituencies returned 1 CnaG and 1 Republican/Anti-Treaty SF (effectively forerunners to FF).

I'd have to look up election law to find out if anything has changed on such elections. I'll try and get back to you on that.

I also can't claim the credit for electionsireland.org, unfortunately.

[Јas]

4 days now until the 30th Dáil meets for the first time and it remains unclear who will form the next government.

Today though, Bertie Ahern wrote a piece for the Sunday Independent clearly indicating that he wishes for renewed negotiations with the Greens. He stated that the Green Party's positions on transport, health and education were "not incompatible" with those of FF. He also said that "further discussion would be required for the two parties to reach a position where they could be both assured that the mix of policies would be politically sustainable, economically feasible and in the national interest".

The current speculation is that Ahern may make direct contact with Green leader Trevor Sargent in an attempt to agree a programme for government. The Taoiseach clearly wants the Greens in government and to my mind this piece strengthens the Greens negotiating position considerably. Their recent comments indictae that they would be open to further talks, however they've made clear that the membership will still have to approve a final decision, something which seems less much less possible with each passing day.

[Јas]

Tonight, Ahern and Sargent have held talks which it seems have brought the parties closer together. Signs from both parties are increasingly positive. Indeed the Greens have provisionally set up a party conference on Wednesday evening. (The party membership will have to approve any deal by a two-thirds majority.)

In other developments, the first of the Independents has officially signed an accord with Ahern to support him and his government. Jackie Healy-Rae (Kerry S) claims to have achieved massive investment in local health care and infrastructure.

Also today, the Taoiseach held a meeting with Independent Finian McGrath (Dublin NC). These talks however were not resolved to the satisfaction of McGrath, so it is unclear whether or not he will be brought on board before Thursday's vote.

It's also looking increasingly likely that the position of Ceann Comhairle will be offered to the opposition. It seems there may be a small number of Labour deputies who would strongly consider the position.

[Kevinstat]

I bet you'll like having as much voting clout as those in other 5-seat constituencies.  Although O'Hanlon is from Moneghan, right?  In which case 4 of the five TDs in your constituency are from your county from your post on your candidate ranking.  I don't know what the populations and voter registration totals of the two counties are, but based on the candidates for the major parties it seems like the two are approximately equal in population.  I imagine one of Moneghan's four seats would fall to Cavan in the next election if the Ceann Comhairle is from another constitency (and/or stepping down) going into that election.  Still, I've heard you speak of the "anti-democratic speakership rules" or something like that so I imagine you might be happy to not have that affect you next time (assuming you're still living in that constituency).

[Јas]

I bet you'll like having as much voting clout as those in other 5-seat constituencies.  Although O'Hanlon is from Moneghan, right?  In which case 4 of the five TDs in your constituency are from your county from your post on your candidate ranking.  I don't know what the populations and voter registration totals of the two counties are, but based on the candidates for the major parties it seems like the two are approximately equal in population.  I imagine one of Moneghan's four seats would fall to Cavan in the next election if the Ceann Comhairle is from another constitency (and/or stepping down) going into that election.  Still, I've heard you speak of the "anti-democratic speakership rules" or something like that so I imagine you might be happy to not have that affect you next time (assuming you're still living in that constituency).

Absolutely, I much favour 5 seaters to say 3 seaters. Current legislation maintains that the Electoral Commission must only allow for 3, 4 or 5 seaters. I would be much happier if counties like Donegal; Kerry and Meath were treated as single 6-seaters than split into 3-seaters, more representative.

O'Hanlon is from Monaghan. Carrickmacross in the South of the county, usually gets a reasonable share of the vote from East Cavan as well.
Cavan and Monaghan have very similar populations, both around 50-52 thousand, Cavan having almost 1000 more, IIRC. Very strange that for 2 consecutive elections the split will be 4 TDs to 1 in Monaghans favour.

It was Lewis who mentioned the anti-democratic speakership rules, whereby the CC gets automatic re-election. I would tend to agree, I don't really buy the arguments for his automatic re-election. Had all 5 seats been up for grabs, Cavan (and FG) would almost certainly have gotten a seat (at FF's expense).

[minionofmidas]

Also today, the Taoiseach held a meeting with Independent Finian McGrath (Dublin NC).

I've always wondered - is that the same name as "Fenian"?

[Јas]

Also today, the Taoiseach held a meeting with Independent Finian McGrath (Dublin NC).

I've always wondered - is that the same name as "Fenian"?

Oh goodness, no. I suppose pronounced very similarly, but there's no actual connection between them that I know of.

I've never actually come across anyone with the name "Fenian". (Obviously not to say I don't know of many people whoi have been called/described as such.)

[Јas]

From ireland.com:

Greens and FF agree programme for government

Green Party negotiators this evening agree to join a Fianna Fail-led coalition and will put proposals to members tomorrow.

Green Party negotiator Dan Boyle talks to the media after agreeing a draft programme for government with Fianna Fail. Photo: PA
After ten days of intense negotiations, agreement was reached at around 8.30pm this evening on a draft programme for government.

However, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Green Party leader Trevor Sargent have yet to discuss the plan and are due to meet tomorrow.

The proposals are due to be brought to the Fianna Fail Parliamentary Party tomorrow at 3 pm while the Green Party will convene a special delegate conference at the same time where two thirds majority support is needed for the party to enter the proposed coalition.

While the distribution of government departments was not agreed, it appears the policy differences which dogged the negotiations have been overcome.

The terms of the deal had not been released at the time of writing and both parties were keen to present the programme to their colleagues before releasing details to the media.

Speaking after the negotiations concluded, one of the Fainna Fáil negotiators, Seamus Brennan said: "We were satisfied that this document would form a basis for government".

He also indicated that the Progressive Democrats, who are widely expected to join the coalition, were "broadly kept aware and briefed" during the negotiations.

"They will receive a final copy of the document and they will be dealing with it overnight," Mr Brennan added.

Speaking on RTE television's Prime Time Fianna Fáil deputy leader Brian Cowen said a policy basis had been agreed but that it was contingent on agreement between the party leaders.

He refused to be drawn on details of what he said was deal that took account of the "workability" of the policies. He also hinted that the distribution of departments would be a matter for the party leaders.

Mr Sargent said party members will debate the proposition at a meeting at the Mansion House tomorrow due to conclude with a vote at 8.30pm.

[Democratic Hawk]

The RTE/Lansdowne Market Research exit poll found that a FF/Green coalition was the preferred choice of a mere 4% of voters

Preferred coalitions, in order of most desirable, in the exit poll were as follows [2002 figures]:

FG/LAB 30% [20%]
FF/PD 18% [28%]
FF on its own 15% [15%]
FG/LAB/Green 13% [11%]
FF/LAB 8% [9%]
FF/SF 7% [n/a]
FF/IND 5% [7%]
FF/Green 4% [3%]

Should it happen, can the Greens expect a backlash against them at the next election?

Dave