2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Rowan]

Tom Kean, Jr will not be LG. Good move here.

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/30368/keans-out-corzine-considering-soaries-or-sires

[Rowan]

If anyone is interested, the Christie victory speech from Tuesday:

Part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zv_zk8YkeG4

Part 2:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkURQCADUKs

Part 3:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m1dKDsuaM-A

[pogo stick]

Go Chris Christie!!! Finally a republican in that state that I like!!!!


Kean sucked
Whitman sucked
Lonegan sucked

Christie rocks!!

[Rowan]

Three Democrats briefed on Corzine's lieutenant governor deliberations said he's currently focused on Weinberg because she would help the ticket in Bergen County, which could go Republican, and would be a strong counter-match to Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan, who is on Christie's short list.

Also under consideration for Corzine are DiVincenzo, U.S. Rep. Albio Sires (D-13th Dist.) and state Sens. Barbara Buono (D-Middlesex) and Shirley Turner (D-Mercer). Corzine said Wednesday that former treasurer and confidante Richard Leone is heading up a committee to examine the candidates.

Along with Donovan, Christie is considering U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-2nd Dist.), state Sen. Diane Allen (R-Burlington), Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris), Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) and former congressman Mike Ferguson.

[Verily]

Weinberg lost all of her money in the Madoff affair (used to be quite wealthy), so I don't know whether she'd be a great choice for a campaign that will be doing a lot of self-funding. Still an excellent, excellent State Senator, though, the best one in NJ. More important for her anti-corruption credentials than for her help in Bergen, though. The district she represents (including where I live) is very Democratic already (over two-thirds Obama, I would guess) and has historically very strong turnout (75-80% of registered voters in 2008). And she's been at odds with the BCDO in the past.

[Keystone Phil]

Along with Donovan, Christie is considering U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo (R-2nd Dist.), state Sen. Diane Allen (R-Burlington), Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris), Sen. Joe Kyrillos (R-Monmouth) and former congressman Mike Ferguson.

Why the hell would LoBo go for Lt. Governor? Sure, he might be tired of being a member of the minority party in Congress but he has a lot of seniority and he's old. His career is coming to an end. There's little point in "moving up" now. I don't even know that your Lt. Governor is going to be all that powerful.

[Rowan]

I was thinking the same thing. Plus, it makes no sense, it would leave a wide open pickup opportunity for the Dems with an open seat. I don't think LoBiondo wants the job anyway. Most likely it will be Diane Allen from what I hear.

[Keystone Phil]

Most likely it will be Diane Allen from what I hear.

That's not terribly wise either. She's more liberal.

People aren't voting based on the running mates. The only people that really do are members of the base. Christie shouldn't try to be flashy so the media can say, "Oh, look! Christie picked a woman, too!" In fact, picking a woman just makes it a non issue since Corzine is going to do the same. It only looks like pandering and it might cost you votes from the base you need motivated.

[Verily]

Also, Kathleen Donovan is a lesbian, which would be interesting if she were the Republican LG nominee. (She's technically not "out", but she doesn't try to hide it.)

[pogo stick]

I don't see a diffrence in who Christie picks ,most NJ republicans are retards anyways. So far Christie is the only NJ republican who I like.

[Rowan]

Christie should try to pick a candidate that will help in a swing area.

[Rowan]

Christie should try to pick a candidate that will help in a swing area.

Swing areas are irrelevant in a state-wide race.  It's not like counties have electoral votes.  Christie needs straight votes.  He needs to pick someone with wide appeal from an urban area.

Yeah, but my point is, there's no point picking someone from Ocean County, or from Northwest Jersey because he won't win any additional votes there.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also, Kathleen Donovan is a lesbian, which would be interesting if she were the Republican LG nominee. (She's technically not "out", but she doesn't try to hide it.)

Her sexuality is probably the least of all good reasons to pick her.  She's a "mere" County Clerk. Allen has similar plusses to Donovan with a better resume.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Here's where the Star Ledger puts the LG sweeps at:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

My thoughts:

For Corzine: He needs a female, plain and simple. He'll only win by exploiting the typical New Jersey gender gap, and one has not opened up yet. Corzine would get along best with the liberal Sen. Weinberg, but politically, the best bet is probably the more indy-friendly (and Middlesex-centered) Sen. Barbara Buono. Shirley Turner is the preferred "minority" play, since she's so influential and respected in the State Senate, but I'm guessing Corzine wants to avoid creating a possible rift with "Reagan Democrats."

For Christie: It's got to be a woman. Basic political calculus dictates that Christie will win men no matter what—but he needs to stay competitive with women. Most New Jersey Republicans get blown out amongst the fairer sex.

Donovan (though a great person who I've met personally) seems too lightweight...as a simple County Clerk and former one-term Assemblywoman (from the 1980s), she might garner some unfair comparisons to Sarah Palin. Getting some good numbers in Bergen would be most welcome for Christie, but Donovan does not have a proven ability to provide coattails and Christie seems like he might be strong in the county without her.

Sen. Diane Allen, on the other hand, does have proven assets.  Her first election to the State Senate carried in some Republicans in an incredibly hostile district; her subsequent elections show that Republicans perform infinitely better in Allen-led years than in Assembly-only years. She's from South Jersey, which could use some love (especially if Corzine goes with a north or central Jersey pick), and she'll definitely give Christie the ability to run up his numbers in Burlington (the Burlington machine would turn out simply to get rid of her and replace her with someone more likely to play ball). She's had a statewide plan for some time, and has great name ID in Phillyland.

She's pro-choice, but all of the serious options for Lt. Gov. on the GOP side are pro-choice as well.

I can't believe that LoBiondo would be interested, Jay Webber is too new AND too conservative, and Mike Ferguson smells like a liability rather than an asset. If Christie does go with a man, Kyrillos is the way to go—he's 49, but still has over 20 years of experience in Trenton under his belt. He's a non-controversial choice from a Republican county—that could help Christie run up the numbers in friendly territory.

[Keystone Phil]

So if Christie picks a woman and so does Corzine, how is Christie any more appealing to women?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So if Christie picks a woman and so does Corzine, how is Christie any more appealing to women?

You have to at least try and stop the bleeding, no?

[Keystone Phil]

So if Christie picks a woman and so does Corzine, how is Christie any more appealing to women?

You have to at least try and stop the bleeding, no?

For an office people barely care about? 

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

So if Christie picks a woman and so does Corzine, how is Christie any more appealing to women?

You have to at least try and stop the bleeding, no?

For an office people barely care about? 

Republicans lose races in New Jersey solely because they lose amongst women by a much worse margin than they win amongst men.

Now, I'm no better at predicting the future than the next guy, but it seems to me that Christie would do well to cater to that important group if possible.

[Keystone Phil]

So if Christie picks a woman and so does Corzine, how is Christie any more appealing to women?

You have to at least try and stop the bleeding, no?

For an office people barely care about? 

Republicans lose races in New Jersey solely because they lose amongst women by a much worse margin than they win amongst men.

Now, I'm no better at predicting the future than the next guy, but it seems to me that Christie would do well to cater to that important group if possible.

Ok but, again, my point is that they're not winning them over by putting a woman in a position that nobody cares about (especially when the Dems will likely have a woman as well).

[Rowan]

New Christie web ad attack over CWA deal:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vfmFstTwPk&feature=channel_page

Also, a new Quinnipiac poll is out tomorrow.

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

[Eraserhead]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

Probably not good enough...

[Zarn]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

Probably not good enough...

What makes you think that?

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac NJ-Gov

Christie 50%
Corzine 40%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1312

Looking at the polls internals, Christie still isn't known to about half of the NJ electorate, while enjoying more than 2:1 favorable ratings among those with an opinion.

I seriously doubt that you get re-elected with a 36% approval rating, even it's fu**in NJ.

So don't be too surprised if Corzine gets voted down in November.

[Keystone Phil]

Looking at the polls internals, Christie still isn't known to about half of the NJ electorate

That works both ways. Wait until they find out he's a Pro Life, Bush appointee, etc.