2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[Smid]

can't seem to copy and paste the spreadsheet. I'll make a map at some point.

I've got both your email addresses, if you want to send it to me, I'm happy to wipe your email address off to maintain your privacy and forward to Al.

[mileslunn]

We shall see what will happen but considering that parties on the right seem to always do a bit better than the polls state (I suspect this has mostly to do with the fact the demographics they are strongest amongst are more likely to show up), this should be a blow out.  Mind you I believe Brad Wall has a similiar approval rating to what Danny Williams did in Newfoundland and he won big and the NDP leader has an approval rating similiar to Michael Ignatieff and we all saw how badly he did.  I suspect if the two parties had leaders of equal popularity, the race would be much closer.  And lets remember despit the NDP's big strides elsewhere in the country, they really haven't made much in gains in Saskatchewan over the past 10 years and in fact one could argue the policies they had to adopt to make them competitive nationally hurt them in Saskatchewan but in the case of the federal party at least, it makes more sense to adopt policies that will win in Ontario and Quebec where the seats are.  I also wouldn't be surprised if things get better for them once Brad Wall leaves.  The problem is the party will have a tough time finding someone as popular as him and with expectations very high, this is probably when the NDP will have their best opportunity. 

As for the Liberals, they seem more like a libertarian than Liberal Party never mind the NDP is Saskatchewan is fairly centrist, so they were really crowded out.  It will be interesting to hear though who Ralph Goodale votes for as I know he has always gone Liberal provincially, but I don't believe he that option this time around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

And lets remember despit the NDP's big strides elsewhere in the country, they really haven't made much in gains in Saskatchewan over the past 10 years and in fact one could argue the policies they had to adopt to make them competitive nationally hurt them in Saskatchewan

Red herring: they polled their highest share of the popular vote in the province since 1988 (and one that was entirely respectable by the standards of previous elections) earlier this year.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Bater is a bit of a cook, but his general platform is really something that you need for the federal party

[mileslunn]

Bater is a bit of a cook, but his general platform is really something that you need for the federal party

  Seems a little too pro free market for the federal Liberals.  Lets remember he was opposed to the federal government blocking the takeover of Potash Corporation which the federal Liberals pushed for.  The party also favours privatizing liquor stores which although hardly radical (after all they are private in most other parts of the world) not something I would expect to see in a Liberal platform, more likely something that should be in the Saskatchewan Party's platform.  Also the preamble of policies seems more in line with a classical liberal rather than social liberal.  No arguement with me personally, as I am more of a classical than social liberal, but my point is I am not sure if the federal Liberals would go for this unless you have a similiar situation set up to what you have in BC where the NDP routinely gets 40% of the popular vote and so you have a pro free enterprise coalition to counter them (much like the Social Credit from the 50s through the 80s and the BC Liberals in the past two decades). 

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

We need to make it so whenever we win 170 seats, the NDP and Tories each win 80.

[mileslunn]

We need to make it so whenever we win 170 seats, the NDP and Tories each win 80.

  It will be a few election cycles before the Liberals get to this.  Also I cannot see the Tories and NDP each getting 80.  Either the Liberals will take a more centre-right approach and so they will depress the Tory vote, but help the NDP or take more a centre-left approach and help the Tories but hurt the NDP.  Lets remember the 60s and 70s under Trudeau were much different as the Liberals were more like the NDP today, the PCs like the Liberals today otherwise Red Tories, and the NDP a truly socialist party rather than a modern social democratic one like it is today.  But like most countries we have an older population and a more conservative one, so this won't work.  In 1993 and 2000, you had a divided right and a weak NDP due to the unpopularity of recent provincial NDP governments which were still fresh in people's minds and the Bloc in Quebec to take the Social Democratic vote, while in the 30s, 40s, and 50s the Liberals were more classical liberals, but considering the Tories have adopted many classical liberal policies, this will only work if the Tories get wiped out much like what you have in BC. 

[Хahar 🤔]

The Saskatchewan Liberal Party is a little bit out there.

[DL]

We shall see what will happen but considering that parties on the right seem to always do a bit better than the polls state (I suspect this has mostly to do with the fact the demographics they are strongest amongst are more likely to show up), this should be a blow out. 

There are some exceptions to that pattern. For example in the 2009 BC election almost all the polls kept giving the ultra rightwing BC Liberals/Social Credit a double digit lead over the NDP...they ended up winning by just a 3.5% margin. In the 2004 and 2006 federal elections the Tories did worse than any of the final polls projected. In the recent Manitoba election the PCs did no better than the final polls.

[mileslunn]

True, not always the case, but often is.  In the case of BC, I think also that may have something to do with the motivation of the base.  BC has a very strong and militant union movement and they are very good at getting their supporters out on election day.  The BC Liberals may have been quite right wing in Campbell's first term, but in his second term the policies were pretty centrist.  In fact each election Campbell has run, he toned down his policies, probably because he figured if he veered too far to the right he would be toast plus back in 1996 and 2001 they had to prove to all the right wingers they weren't really Liberals, whereas by 2005 and 2009 everybody knew this.

[LastVoter]

So does NDP ever have a shot at winning the plurality in the federal election?

[Hatman 🍁]

So does NDP ever have a shot at winning the plurality in the federal election?

Not unless Brad Wall murders a baby.

[Hatman 🍁]

http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/2011-federal-election-results-by.html

What you've been waiting for, the federal #s over Saskatchewan ridings.

[Smid]

Great work there!

[adma]

So does NDP ever have a shot at winning the plurality in the federal election?

Not unless Brad Wall murders a baby.

Not that there isn't right-of-centre precedent in Sask (cf. Colin Thatcher)

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/skvotes2011/story/2011/11/04/sk-saskparty-has-big-lead-poll-says-1110.html

My calculations say this would give the NDP 4 seats, and 3 of them are "iffy"


I feel bad for the SKP candidate here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regina_Elphinstone-Centre

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Projection
RED = NDP
PURPLE = TOSS UP
BLUE = SASK P

[Hatman 🍁]

Not good news...

[Hatman 🍁]

Some slightly better news from the last poll of the campaign: http://www.globalregina.com/new+poll+says+saskatchewan+party+set+to+win+decisive+majority/6442515858/story.html

Race is now 62-34.

[Hatman 🍁]

My final prediction: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/11/saskatchewan-2011-provincial-election.html

NDP supporters avert your eyes.

[lilTommy]

As much as this looks to be a messy night tonight, i'm hoping that
a) SP base becomes (wait, becomes!) arrogant, and see's this as in the bag, Wall has been trying to push the base to vote but with such big numbers i don't know if they will feel motivates.
b) the NDP has reason to go and vote, its a do-or-die night, the base, even if they dislike Link like most do, still don't want the party to die off, plus they have run a well oiled policy driven campaign. No one wants a BC 2001 repeat.
c) polls look like between 25-35% for the NDP, if thats concentrated in Regina/Saskatoon and the two northern ridings, i think the NDP can save face and come out of this better than many think... 18-20seats, low side 15. My prediction is 15-18 seats for the NDP

The Rural ridings are going to be blowouts, and i think thats where most of the huge lead is coming from for the SP, just like in MAN, The NDP might lose their three small urban ridings first (except The Battlefords, the Liberals actually might help the NDP here, along with a strong incumbent).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

If the Sask Party is polling in the high 50s in the two cities, then they can't be polling all that much higher elsewhere than last time. Does that make sense? Or is this an issue with the definition of a city?

[minionofmidas]

b) the NDP has reason to go and vote, its a do-or-die night, the base, even if they dislike Link like most do, still don't want the party to die off, plus they have run a well oiled policy driven campaign. No one wants a BC 2001 repeat.

People don't react that way.

[lilTommy]

b) the NDP has reason to go and vote, its a do-or-die night, the base, even if they dislike Link like most do, still don't want the party to die off, plus they have run a well oiled policy driven campaign. No one wants a BC 2001 repeat.

People don't react that way.

I'm talking about the base, the orange blooded voters... i know people who do vote like this; these are the people who voted NDP in 1995 in Ontario, who voted NDP in BC2001, those who volunteer etc. There has been twittering and talk of voting for a strong opposition so i think there is some sentiment out there to vote to save the farm among the NDP.

Sorry, i don't remember what the % was for the SP in the cities, if there in the 50% and already hold three in Saskatoon and 1 in Regina... the cities will be the battleground but since thats also the major centre for the NDP i feel the losses will be minimal... maybe 1-4 seats to the SP. Hmmm i'm not in SK so i don't know what they percieve to be Urban, i would assume just Regina and Saskatoon... perhaps Moose Jaw and Prince Albert are also included in "Urban"

[minionofmidas]

b) the NDP has reason to go and vote, its a do-or-die night, the base, even if they dislike Link like most do, still don't want the party to die off, plus they have run a well oiled policy driven campaign. No one wants a BC 2001 repeat.

People don't react that way.

I'm talking about the base, the orange blooded voters... i know people who do vote like this

Yeah, of course. They're not enough to prevent, well, anything, though.