Portugal's politics and elections

[Josecardoso17]

The reconstruction is going good but slow,but we are recovering .The industrial park is still in the same state because the owners of those factories have financial problems.
That website is very good,and i discovered things there about my parish that i didn´t even knew XD.But still the CNE could provide more data about stuff

[Mike88]

The reconstruction is going good but slow,but we are recovering .The industrial park is still in the same state because the owners of those factories have financial problems.
That website is very good,and i discovered things there about my parish that i didn´t even knew XD.But still the CNE could provide more data about stuff

Many companies probably didn't have insurances or enough capital to pull themselfs back together. The CNE website has good stuff, but for some reason, they've stopped updating the results from the most recent elections, plus you cannot see the results from parish/municipality in EU, legislative, presidential elections and referendums. They should update the website.

Now, political update:

The report on the October wildfires was handed over yesterday in Parliament. The report paints a very black picture of the state of forests, fire combat and organization of help officials, which, ultimately, hits hard on the government. The report, first, points out the magnitude of the October wildfires, saying that they were one of the biggest in Europe's history, adding that hurricane Orphelia created overwhelming conditions that were impossible to fight against. But, then the report says that the wildfires magnitude could have been prevented. The report states that government officials failed to learn anything from the Pedrógão Grande disaster in June 2017, and that they failed to understand the alerts given by the meteorologist institute (IPMA).


Burned forest and car near Leiria.

The report also blames the government for reducing the alert rate for wildfires, reducing the numbers of help organizers and for demobilizing equipments like airplanes. The report also blames electric and phone companies for failing to follow safety regulations in protecting power lines. They also paint the human tragedy from the wildfires, saying that people were literally left alone, and that help almost never came. The report also doesn't support many of the government's proposals to clean forests, saying they aren't enough.

The responses to the report have been quite expected: PSD and CDS accuse the government of incompetence and have already asked for the report team to testify in Parliament, and BE wants political responsibility following the report's conclusions.

The government's response has been a bit uncomfortable. The minister of internal affairs, Eduardo Cabrita, says that now the focus is on the prevention of this year's wildfires and mobilizing society to be alert, while his secretary has refused any failings in the October wildfires

[Mike88]

News update:

After the release of the controversial report on the 2017 October wildfires, the government went to forests across the country to participate in the clearing of the woods. The President of the Republic also participated. The PM, during a visit to a clearing in Torres Vedras, said that this is a "communication action "that functions as an "alert". Costa also added that the country is in a war against wildfires.


Costa in a forest in Torres Vedras.

Many PSD mayors refused to accompany many ministers saying this is a "PR stunt" to clean the government's image, and Rui Rio also said that the government's actions were pure "marketing" and accused the government of ignoring every alert about the October wildfires. The Communists, who also support the PS in parliament, also labeled this as "propaganda".

Rio himself visited Arganil, on Monday, to meet with firefighters and victims organizations. In his visit, he said that help officials failed in October, that there is no supervision and that many people still are with many economic difficulties. He dared the government to create a nationwide strategy to help the forest with reform of help officials and more focus on the needs of rural populations.


Rui Rio during a visit to Arganil's firefighters HQ.

The expulsion of Russian diplomats is also creating some controversy. Portugal is one of the few EU and NATO countries who said that they would not expel any Russian diplomats. At the same, the minister of foregin affairs, Augusto Santos Silva, has taken "good note" of other country's decisions. This position is being met with mix views. Some pundits believe Portugal should not be an exception, while others, like Miguel Sousa Tavares, believe Portugal shouldn't follow the wave of Russian expulsions. Some PSD MEP, like Paulo Rangel, are very critical of the government's position saying that Portugal position is explained by the PCP and BE support to the PS. BE, on the other hand, was pleased with the government's position.


Augusto Santos Silva, minister of foreign affairs.

Meanwhile, the minister of foreign affair made a different statement, compared to yesterday. Augusto Santos Silva said that Portugal's decision about the expulsion of Russian diplomats is "in progress", adding that any measures the Portuguese government makes have to be without precipitation, with autonomy, with prudence, but also with firmness.

[Mike88]

Left parties fail to unite about the Catalonia situation:

Yesterday, CDU presented two votes in order for the Portuguese Parliament to punish Spain's actions. The first vote asked for a political solution for the situation in Catalonia, and it was approved by the votes of PS, BE, CDU, while PSD and CDS voted against. The second vote, where CDU condemns "the repressive measures and the authoritarian drift of the Government and Spanish authorities in relation to the situation in Catalonia", was struck down with the votes of PSD, CDS and PS, while 21 PS MPs voted in favour and 8 abstained.

These votes created some criticisms in the PS, where the leader of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Sérgio Sousa Pinto (PS), said that Parliament has become a "rabble of nonsense" in terms of foreign policy.

Also: The President of the Republic doesn't think Rio will defeat Costa.

This is basically a foregone conclusion. The PSD situation right now is basically a copypaste of 1998/99 and 2008/09, time when the party was divided towards their leader, which ended always in a PS win in the following elections.

[Josecardoso17]

Left parties fail to unite about the Catalonia situation:

Yesterday, CDU presented two votes in order for the Portuguese Parliament to punish Spain's actions. The first vote asked for a political solution for the situation in Catalonia, and it was approved by the votes of PS, BE, CDU, while PSD and CDS voted against. The second vote, where CDU condemns "the repressive measures and the authoritarian drift of the Government and Spanish authorities in relation to the situation in Catalonia", was struck down with the votes of PSD, CDS and PS, while 21 PS MPs voted in favour and 8 abstained.

These votes created some criticisms in the PS, where the leader of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Sérgio Sousa Pinto (PS), said that Parliament has become a "rabble of nonsense" in terms of foreign policy.

Also: The President of the Republic doesn't think Rio will defeat Costa.

This is basically a foregone conclusion. The PSD situation right now is basically a copypaste of 1998/99 and 2008/09, time when the party was divided towards their leader, which ended always in a PS win in the following elections.

President Marcelo is having flashbacks from is leadership period xD.

[Mike88]

Left parties fail to unite about the Catalonia situation:

Yesterday, CDU presented two votes in order for the Portuguese Parliament to punish Spain's actions. The first vote asked for a political solution for the situation in Catalonia, and it was approved by the votes of PS, BE, CDU, while PSD and CDS voted against. The second vote, where CDU condemns "the repressive measures and the authoritarian drift of the Government and Spanish authorities in relation to the situation in Catalonia", was struck down with the votes of PSD, CDS and PS, while 21 PS MPs voted in favour and 8 abstained.

These votes created some criticisms in the PS, where the leader of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Sérgio Sousa Pinto (PS), said that Parliament has become a "rabble of nonsense" in terms of foreign policy.

Also: The President of the Republic doesn't think Rio will defeat Costa.

This is basically a foregone conclusion. The PSD situation right now is basically a copypaste of 1998/99 and 2008/09, time when the party was divided towards their leader, which ended always in a PS win in the following elections.

President Marcelo is having flashbacks from is leadership period xD.

So true, and he was so unpopular back then.

[Josecardoso17]

Left parties fail to unite about the Catalonia situation:

Yesterday, CDU presented two votes in order for the Portuguese Parliament to punish Spain's actions. The first vote asked for a political solution for the situation in Catalonia, and it was approved by the votes of PS, BE, CDU, while PSD and CDS voted against. The second vote, where CDU condemns "the repressive measures and the authoritarian drift of the Government and Spanish authorities in relation to the situation in Catalonia", was struck down with the votes of PSD, CDS and PS, while 21 PS MPs voted in favour and 8 abstained.

These votes created some criticisms in the PS, where the leader of the Committee on Foreign Affairs, Sérgio Sousa Pinto (PS), said that Parliament has become a "rabble of nonsense" in terms of foreign policy.

Also: The President of the Republic doesn't think Rio will defeat Costa.

This is basically a foregone conclusion. The PSD situation right now is basically a copypaste of 1998/99 and 2008/09, time when the party was divided towards their leader, which ended always in a PS win in the following elections.

President Marcelo is having flashbacks from is leadership period xD.

So true, and he was so unpopular back then.

How things change with time xD

[Mike88]

Some headlines:

The culture sector is, currently, in full war against the government. The sector wants more funding for culture are accusing Costa's government of lack of funding. Although the government has announced that an additional 900,000 euros will be added to funding, the sector say it's not enough. They accuse the secretary of Culture, Miguel Honrado, of "arrogance" and want him to resign. The minister of Culture is also under huge pressure and has already been called by the PM to explain himself. Nonetheless, protests against the government's policy towards the culture sector are planned for this Friday.

On the PSD, things seem to be quieting down. Rio held, yesterday, his first National Council without any major opposition, and saw his choice for general-secretary, José Silvano, approved with 78% of the votes. In his speech, Rio said he will focus his opposition to the PS government on 3 main issues: the bad shape of the NHS, the controversial government's handling of the wildfires and the the shady deal between the State owned charity, Santa Casa Misericórdia of Lisbon, and Montepio bank. Also, the announcement of the new "shadow team" of the PSD is expected latter today, or in the next few days.

Also, an agreement between the government and the PSD is expected on the topic of decentralization reform. According to Público newspaper, the government has agreed with the PSD that local councils will be given a total of 1.2 billion euros per year for the transfer of new competencies from the central government.

[Mike88]

And Costa caved in, to some degree, to the Cultural sector demands:

António Costa has agreed to increase funding to Culture/Arts in more 2.2 million euros, totaling an annual investment of 19.2 million euros. Cultural/Arts movements want a minimum of 25 million euros. Protests are still schedule for Friday against the government's plans for the Culture sector.

Although Costa's handling of this controversy has been a bit clumsy, the degree of protests from the Cultural/Arts community are a bit exaggerated. Cultural spending was always very low in Portugal, and there weren't these kind of demands and pressures when the PSD was in government, but, of course, Costa promissed a lot of new policies towards the Culture/Arts community and nothing, basically, changed.

It's curious the approach Costa is having towards the culture sector compared with Rui Rio, PSD leader. While Costa is trying to stop the protests, when Rui Rio was mayor of Porto, he ended public funding to many local arts/cultural groups which created a huge uproar in the city. One of those cultural groups that Rio ended had Catarina Martins, herself an actress and BE leader, as a member.

[Mike88]

Local by-election called for Croca Parish, Penafiel, Porto District:

A by-election will be held on May 27th in Croca Parish, 1,767 inhabitants, Penafiel. The election was called after the PSD/CDS and Independent opposition blocked the PS minority executive in the parish. In 2017, the results were the following:

37.1% PS, 4 seats
29.6% PSD/CDS, 3
27.6% Indy, 2
  2.9% CDU
  2.8% Invalid

70.9% Turnout

This will be the 2nd local by-election to be held in May. The other one is in Vacalar Parish, Armamar, Viseu District on May 20th.

[Mike88]

Political update:

With the cultural/arts funds still a bit unresolved, the week started with more news of budget restraint, this time in the NHS. On Monday, newspapers reported the the child cancer facilities in St John Hospital, Porto city, were in terrible shape. The facility, which is provisional for the last 10 years, is in very bad shape with children being treated in corridors alongside garbage bags, plus rain normally enters also. Parents are outraged by this and the Hospital board is blaming the government for not giving the money necessary for the construction of a new building.


St. John Hospital, Porto city.

This situation is falling in the hands of, not the health minister, but the finance minister, Mário Centeno. According to the media, the hospital has the money but it requires a signature from Mr Centeno, which he hasn't gave yet. Speaking in Parliament, yesterday, Mr Centeno blamed the previous PSD/CDS government of promissing the construction without funds and said the money will come, but didn't gave any hint on when that will happen.


Mário Centeno, finance minister, in Parliament.

Adding to all of this, the government approved the Stability Program 2018-2022, which downgrades the budget deficit to 0.7% this year, rather than the 1.1% in the 2018 budget. This downgrade is infuriating BE and CDU which are demanding more public investment on the NHS and Education. BE, and CDU also, are in collision course against Centeno, as they accuse the PS of behaving like if they had an absolute majority. There are already pundits saying the 2019 budget could be struck down by BE and CDU. Will there be a government crisis during this year? Odds are that it's still unlikely, but you never know.

Rui Rio also unveiled his "shadow team" that will help him make the opposition to Costa's government, plus it will be the team responsible for the elaboration of the PSD 2019 manifesto. The team has 16 coordinators and 16 spokespersons. The list of coordinators are:


Rui Rio, PSD leader, presenting his "shadow team".

European affairs: Isabel Meirelles
Foreign affairs: Tiago Moreira de Sá
Finance: Álvaro Almeida
State Reform: Álvaro Amaro
Defence: Ângelo Correia
Justice: Licínio Lopes Martins
Homeand security: José Matos Correia
Agriculture: Arlindo Cunha
Infrastructures: Falcão e Cunha
Environment: Ana Isabel Miranda
Economy: Rui Vinhas da Silva
Health: Luís Filipe Pereira
Solidarity and well being: Silva Peneda
Education: David Justino
Higher Education: Maria da Graça Carvalho
Sea affairs: Regina Salvador

Also, there will be 2 lists to the May 20th by-election in Vacalar Parish, Armamar, Viseu district. In 2017, PSD ran unopposed. The 2 lists are from:

PSD - Social Democratic Party
PPT - Group of Independent Citizens, Progress for All

[Mike88]

Bloomberg: Europe’s Center Left Is Alive and Kicking, at Least in Portugal

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Not a very flattering comparison, in my view.

[Mike88]

Parliament approved new law that allows sex change by age 16 without medical report:

The new gender identity law, which lowers the age to change gender on the ID Card and ends with the obligation to submit a medical report to do so, was approved this Friday morning. PS, BE, PEV, PAN and 1 PSD MP voted in favour. PSD and CDS voted against. PCP abstained.

Overall numbers:

109 In favour (PS, BE, PAN, PEV, 1 PSD MP)
106 Against (PSD, CDS)
  15 Abstain (PCP)

[VPH]

Parliament approved new law that allows sex change by age 16 without medical report:

The new gender identity law, which lowers the age to change gender on the ID Card and ends with the obligation to submit a medical report to do so, was approved this Friday morning. PS, BE, PEV, PAN and 1 PSD MP voted in favour. PSD and CDS voted against. PCP abstained.

Overall numbers:

109 In favour (PS, BE, PAN, PEV, 1 PSD MP)
106 Against (PSD, CDS)
  15 Abstain (PCP)

Which PSD MP voted for it?

[Mike88]

Parliament approved new law that allows sex change by age 16 without medical report:

The new gender identity law, which lowers the age to change gender on the ID Card and ends with the obligation to submit a medical report to do so, was approved this Friday morning. PS, BE, PEV, PAN and 1 PSD MP voted in favour. PSD and CDS voted against. PCP abstained.

Overall numbers:

109 In favour (PS, BE, PAN, PEV, 1 PSD MP)
106 Against (PSD, CDS)
  15 Abstain (PCP)

Which PSD MP voted for it?

Teresa Leal Coelho, the disgraced Lisbon candidate from the PSD.

Also, the Economist gaffe in their illustration of Costa:



Got it? They confused the PSD logo with the PS. Or was it on purpose?

The article itself: Social democracy is floundering everywhere in Europe, except Portugal

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Josecardoso17]

Political update:

With the cultural/arts funds still a bit unresolved, the week started with more news of budget restraint, this time in the NHS. On Monday, newspapers reported the the child cancer facilities in St John Hospital, Porto city, were in terrible shape. The facility, which is provisional for the last 10 years, is in very bad shape with children being treated in corridors alongside garbage bags, plus rain normally enters also. Parents are outraged by this and the Hospital board is blaming the government for not giving the money necessary for the construction of a new building.


St. John Hospital, Porto city.

This situation is falling in the hands of, not the health minister, but the finance minister, Mário Centeno. According to the media, the hospital has the money but it requires a signature from Mr Centeno, which he hasn't gave yet. Speaking in Parliament, yesterday, Mr Centeno blamed the previous PSD/CDS government of promissing the construction without funds and said the money will come, but didn't gave any hint on when that will happen.


Mário Centeno, finance minister, in Parliament.

Adding to all of this, the government approved the Stability Program 2018-2022, which downgrades the budget deficit to 0.7% this year, rather than the 1.1% in the 2018 budget. This downgrade is infuriating BE and CDU which are demanding more public investment on the NHS and Education. BE, and CDU also, are in collision course against Centeno, as they accuse the PS of behaving like if they had an absolute majority. There are already pundits saying the 2019 budget could be struck down by BE and CDU. Will there be a government crisis during this year? Odds are that it's still unlikely, but you never know.

Rui Rio also unveiled his "shadow team" that will help him make the opposition to Costa's government, plus it will be the team responsible for the elaboration of the PSD 2019 manifesto. The team has 16 coordinators and 16 spokespersons. The list of coordinators are:


Rui Rio, PSD leader, presenting his "shadow team".

European affairs: Isabel Meirelles
Foreign affairs: Tiago Moreira de Sá
Finance: Álvaro Almeida
State Reform: Álvaro Amaro
Defence: Ângelo Correia
Justice: Licínio Lopes Martins
Homeand security: José Matos Correia
Agriculture: Arlindo Cunha
Infrastructures: Falcão e Cunha
Environment: Ana Isabel Miranda
Economy: Rui Vinhas da Silva
Health: Luís Filipe Pereira
Solidarity and well being: Silva Peneda
Education: David Justino
Higher Education: Maria da Graça Carvalho
Sea affairs: Regina Salvador

Also, there will be 2 lists to the May 20th by-election in Vacalar Parish, Armamar, Viseu district. In 2017, PSD ran unopposed. The 2 lists are from:

PSD - Social Democratic Party
PPT - Group of Independent Citizens, Progress for All

If now the left decided to withdraw support for the PS,and the country went to elections,what do you think the results would be?

[Mike88]

If now the left decided to withdraw support for the PS,and the country went to elections,what do you think the results would be?

My view is that BE and CDU would be humiliated, polling at around just 6%, PS would probably win a small absolute majority, 116 to 118 seats, PSD would poll somewhere around 30% and CDS around 7%.

[Mike88]

Aximage poll from April:

38.0% PS (-1.2)
26.7% PSD (-0.3)
10.0% BE (n.c.)
  7.7% CDU (+0.3)
  7.0% CDS (+1.6)
  8.1% Others/Invalid (-0.6)
  2.4% Undecided (+0.1)

Popularity ratings (scale between 0 and 20):

13.7 António Costa
11.0 Catarina Martins
10.4 Rui Rio
  9.5 Jerónimo de Sousa
  8.5 Assunção Cristas

Preferred PM:

61.8% António Costa
26.4% Rui Rio

Poll conducted between 8 and 12 April 2018. Polled 601 voters. MoE of 4.00%

[Mike88]

Using the numbers from Aximage poll:

Vote estimate by political side, with undecided voters distributed: (compared with the 2015 elections)

2,272,000 38.9% (+6.6) Center-Left (PS)
2,020,000 34.6% (-4.0) Center-Right (PSD, CDS)
1,062,000 18.2% (-0.3) Leftwing (BE, CDU)
   485,000   8.3% (-2.3) Others/Invalid

5,839,000 68.7% Turnout

Vote estimate by political party, with undecided voters distributed:

2,272,000 38.9% PS
1,600,000 27.4% PSD
   601,000 10.3% BE
   461,000   7.9% CDU
   420,000   7.2% CDS
   485,000   8.3% Others/Invalid

5,839,000 68.7% Turnout

[Mike88]

MP from BE resigns because of travel repayments:


Paulino Ascenção, former BE MP, next to Catarina Martins during the 2015 campaign.

Paulino Ascenção, BE MP from Madeira, was one of the MPs involved in the doubling of travel allowances case. After Expresso newspaper reported that MPs from PSD, PS and BE were repaid, with public money, for non-paying trips, Paulino Ascenção has become the first to fall. He resigned from his seat in Parliament, saying that what he did was "incorrect practice" and apologized for it.  

At least 7 MPs, 6 from PS and 1 from the PSD, are also involved in this case including the President of the PS and PS caucus leader, Carlos César.

The PSD is considering punishments for MPs involved in this case. The party has submitted a requirement to the Parliamentary Ethics Committee to analyse the situation.

[Mike88]

By-elections to be held in Darque Parish, Viana do Castelo:

Darque Parish, Viana do Castelo, 7,800 inhabitants, will hold by-elections after the PSD and CDU resigned their seats to bring down the PS minority executive. Both parties wanted some seats in the local executive, which was refused by the PS. The PS tried to forge a deal with PSD, but that also failed.

The by-election will probably be held on late June or early July.

This will be the third local by-election this year, after Vacalar parish, Armamar, on May 20th, and Croca parish, Penafiel, on May 27th. The PSD will try to defend Vacalar parish, while PS will have to defend Croca and Darque.

[Mike88]

Local by-elections also likely in Vilela parish, Paredes, Porto district:

Vilela parish, in Paredes municipality, Porto district, around 5,200 inhabitants, may be going to the polls soon. The parish is led by a PSD minority, and the PS/CDS opposition is refusing to vote in favour of the new PSD minority executive. Therefore, the PSD is asking the opposition to make up their minds or there will be new elections. PS and CDS are accusing the PSD of "victimization".

In 2017, the results were the following:

41.9% PSD, 4 seats
35.1% PS, 3
18.3% CDS, 2
  1.1% CDU
  3.6% Invalid

69.5% Turnout

In Croca parish, Penafiel, Porto district, 3 lists will be on the ballot. PSD/CDS didn't present a list. The list is the following:

CDU - Unitary Democratic Coalition
PS - Socialist Party
MPC - Movement for Croca

[Mike88]

PSD and the Government sign deals on Decentralization and European Funds:


Rio and Costa shaking hands in front of the press.

The government and the PSD signed, today, deals involving the decentralization of services and competences to municipal councils and regarding the European funds 2030 to Portugal. The main deal is decentralization. With this deal, it is expected local councils will be responsible of health care, education and culture. Then comes the hard part, money. After this deal, a new local financial law has to be negotiated between PS and PSD. The deal also opens the door to a future plan for the regionalization of Portugal. The last time regionalization was asked to voters, in 1998, it was rejected by a 64% to 36% margin.

The leftwing parties, PCP and BE, are not happy at all with these deals between PSD and PS. Jerónimo de Sousa, PCP leader, said that these deals have a "undeniable political significance" and that every time PSD and PS forge deals, Portugal loses.

[Mike88]

President of the Republic likely to veto sex change at 16 years old without medical report:

Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, President of the Republic, is, according to the media, inclined to veto the new law that allows sex changes at the the age of 16 without any medical report. This new bill barely passed in Parliament, 109 to 106. According to the media, what seems to worry the President is the lack of medical reports.

[Mike88]

It's Official, the Constitutional Court has ruled against Surrogacy:



The Constitutional Court has struck down Surrogacy pregnancies. Although the court ruling bans surrogacy, the 2 cases already approved, plus those who are in consideration, will not be obliged by this court decision.

After MPs from the PSD, although Passos Coelho and Rui Rio are in favour of surrogacy, and CDS presented a complain about the new law to the Court, the Court ruled the law as unconstitutional because of 4 irregularities in the law. They are:

1. Contracts are too vague: The Court says the law doesn't specifies any timetables.
2. Repentance of the pregnant woman: The Court wants the pregnant woman to have the right of repentance at any time, even after the birth.
3. Who is the child from, in case that the contract is void?: The Court says that the law neglets to mention in the case of a termination of contract, who's the child from.
4. Should the child be entitled to know who the donors and the pregnant woman were?: The Court says that the child should be able to know who is his/her biological mother at any moment of his/her life, in order to respect "human dignity".

In reaction to this ruling, CDS is very pleased with the results, while associations in favour of surrogacy are sadden with the court's ruling saying it will increase unhappiness for many people.