Canadian by-elections, 2012

[Hatman 🍁]

My analysis of Durham is up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-2-durham.html

[Hatman 🍁]

And finally, Calgary Centre: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2012/11/federal-by-elections-part-3-calgary.html

[DC Al Fine]

Read it. Neat stuff.

I'll go negative here and predict:

Calgary Centre: Liberal (to go Tory again in 2015)
Durham: Conservative
Victoria: NDP

[Meeker]

Turnout is "strong" and "brisk" in Calgary Centre. Interpret how you wish.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/politics/Calgary+Centre+byelection+shows+signs+strong+voter+turnout/7609088/story.html

[Qavvavak]

I know Victoria will NDP seat and I really hope Durham going to NDP victory!

[Meeker]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

[DC Al Fine]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

Not sure if this is universal, but that has been my experience scrutineering.

[Hash]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I worked during the last federal and provincial elections and I don't recall that it came up, but I think we would have let everybody in line vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

[mileslunn]

Victoria should be an easy NDP hold, but interesting to see how well the Greens do.  Also it will be interesting to see if the Tories fall below 20%.  Since 1993 under the Reform/Alliance/Conservatives (not combining votes, just the most right wing party on the ballot) they have never fallen below 20%, but never cracked the 30% mark either.

For Durham, I would be very shocked if the Tories don't win.  The main question is do they get over 50% which my guess is no or do they fall below.

As for Calgary Centre, if I had to guess I would say the Tories narrowly hold it but it will be much closer than they want, nonetheless unlike Durham I could see this flipping.  I agree that in 2015 it will probably go back to the Tories unless they have some big scandal which sinks them nationally.  Otherwise I think their chances of losing the next election are greater than losing any seat in Calgary.

[Orion0]

Read it. Neat stuff.

I'll go negative here and predict:

Calgary Centre: Liberal (to go Tory again in 2015)
Durham: Conservative
Victoria: NDP

Gonna have to disagree with the prediction, Crockett is not ideal, but Greens and libs both have (relatively) high support here, and any strategic ABC voting doesn't seem to be coalescing around one candidate. I'll be watching green support, as the higher it is more likely Crockett wins. If it does flip, I tend to agree with mileslunn & dc and see it going back to con in 15, temporary blip style.

[adma]

Then again, who knows if the added attention to Calgary Centre actually now being winnable or at least competitive for a non-Conservative might carry on into the next general election...

[Orion0]

Then again, who knows if the added attention to Calgary Centre actually now being winnable or at least competitive for a non-Conservative might carry on into the next general election...

You might think, but Calgary is a different political beast than Edmonton where opposition parties at least have a decent showing. I used to believe that like Edmonton, Calgary was ripe for non-cpc parties. Then I moved to Calgary, and the last 4 years have proven (to me at least) that Calgary is solidly blue, unless the libs start saying yes to nexen, northern gateway, etc etc as a group (not just individual candidates piecemeal support for some aspects) and with a general election on the line in 2015 I doubt that Calgary would bite the hand that feeds, so to speak.

[Hatman 🍁]

Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

[Orion0]

Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

Perhaps not, but there is a huge push on the ground for both Turner and Locke = a split. And you more than anyone else should know that Calgary centre holds not only the downtown core, but large swaths of middle class suburbs, which are the cons bread and butter. Plus the monied mansions along the elbow which are reliably conservative as well.

No matter the results, it's a perfect storm sort of by-election, with a polarizing cpc candidate and two very savvy challengers (the NDP sitting this one out it seems) and a situation not likely to be repeated come 2015.

[Hatman 🍁]

Downtown Calgary wont be that blue tonight methinks.

Perhaps not, but there is a huge push on the ground for both Turner and Locke = a split. And you more than anyone else should know that Calgary centre holds not only the downtown core, but large swaths of middle class suburbs, which are the cons bread and butter. Plus the monied mansions along the elbow which are reliably conservative as well.

No matter the results, it's a perfect storm sort of by-election, with a polarizing cpc candidate and two very savvy challengers (the NDP sitting this one out it seems) and a situation not likely to be repeated come 2015.

My point was, not all of Calgary is blue. Just not enough to form any non-Tory federal ridings. Although one could make a gerrymander going from the central part of the city into the McCall area

[Smid]

How long before results start trickling in?

[doktorb]

As an aside, yes, things are different in the UK.

After the 2010 election, new signs have appeared at polling stations which say "Polls close at 10pm, always expect queues as you cannot vote afterwards" or somesuch. I think there's an amendment to the law going through the Commons, at the usual pace you'd expect.

[MaxQue]

How long before results start trickling in?

Counting started in Calgary and Durham (10 minutes ago), but no results can be published before 20 minutes (when Victoria polls closes).

[MaxQue]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

[Hatman 🍁]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

Depends on the time of day, but I've never seen anything too long.

[MaxQue]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

Depends on the time of day, but I've never seen anything too long.

The only time I voted at federal, I waited 25 minutes, but I doubt it is common (at 5PM and our scrutator had, as we were explained, a small bladder).

[Hash]

Random question: does Canada have the same "if you're in line when polls closed then you get to vote" standard as U.S. elections? I'm aware that line-ups are rarely longer than 15 or 20 minutes so it's not really as much of an issue.

I think so. I've never seen it happen though. Whenever I've scrutineered, there is barely anyone around when the polls close. But then again, polls close late in Ontario to accommodate the west. (compare Durham is closing at 9:30 local time and Calgary Centre is at 7:30 local time).

Things are different in the UK, right? I remember huge issues in their last election.

To those who already scrutineered, does lanes are common, or quite rare?

It really depends on the time of day. When people get off work in the evenings or at lunch, or in the morning before they go to work; there's a good chance that there will be a lineup. In October, we had a pretty big lineup starting at around 5:30-6pm which lasted 30 minutes after a really, really dead afternoon. It always stays a bit busy after 7pm until the polls closes.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I thought I'd posted this yesterday, but apparently not.  For what it's worth, my prediciton is:

Calgary Centre - Conservative
Durham - Conservative
Victoria - NDP

[Hatman 🍁]

I thought I'd posted this yesterday, but apparently not.  For what it's worth, my prediciton is:

Calgary Centre - Conservative
Durham - Conservative
Victoria - NDP

Those are some pretty brave predictions, Inks