2011 State Elections in Germany

[Middle-aged Europe]

Whereabouts?

Mitte, Mitte. Pretty much between Alexanderplatz and Potsdamer Platz.

I like to say that it must be one of the cheapest houses in one of the more expensive areas of Berlin (then again, it's still a Plattenbau).

The results of the 2009 election in my precinct:
The Left 38.0% (+3.0%)
SPD 17.9% (-17.6%)
CDU 13.8% (+3.7%)
Greens 13.2% (+4.1%)
FDP 7.2% (+2.2%)
Pirate Party 4.3% (+4.3%)
NPD 2.9% (+0.7%)

[Franzl]

38% Linke...Lord

[Insula Dei]

Wow, you really, really live in Mitte. Is it a good place to live?

[off-topic]

[Franzl]

Wow, you really, really live in Mitte. Is it a good place to live?

[off-topic]

You have to really want to be there....I think I'd hate it.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I previously lived in Wedding, what a sh!thole. Not only are the Turks and Arabs scum, the same applies to the home-grown Germans as well. But at least I got harassed there only once... by a German, not a Turk. Any Turk with some self-respect lives in Kreuzberg anyway.

Where I live now is certainly the better part of East Berlin. Maybe a little boring though... despite the fact that I have the provisional BND headquarters up my street (until their new big-ass HQ is finished in Berlin). But nothing noticable is happening there and you can't get in there   .

Mitte is certainly perfect when you hate to commute. And that really comes in handy at a time like this when the second Ice Age has started.

[minionofmidas]

38% Left, that far west in Mitte. I think I know the precinct.

(looks it up) Nope, I was thinking of another precinct - the geographically tiny one consisting of the group of large Platten on Leipziger Straße. However, that precinct actually gave the left just 37.3% (SPD 20.0, CDU 16.9, Greens 10.6, FDP 8.5, Pirates 3.3, and frankly the Green and Pirate scores in your precinct might have tipped me off that I was wrong. )
I've found your precinct too though. Friedrichswerder.

[Tender Branson]

Juhu, finally a Bremen poll by Konkret Marktforschung (Wtf?) for the BILD:

33.4% SPD
22.8% CDU
19.4% Greens
  8.5% Left
  5.5% BIW ("Citizenz with a lot of wrath")
  3.3% FDP
  7.1% Others

[Middle-aged Europe]

  5.5% BIW ("Citizenz with a lot of wrath")

I'd translate it with "Citizens in Rage" myself.

This party getting more than 5% would enrage me btw. Someone has to absorb the DVU votes though, I guess.

[Tender Branson]

The Hamburg state election has been set for February 20 btw.

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria state elections poll by Emnid for the "Bild":

45% (+2) CSU
18%  (-1) SPD
16% (+7) Greens
  6%  (-4) FW
  5% (+1) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Bavaria state elections poll by Emnid for the "Bild":

45% (+2) CSU
18%  (-1) SPD
16% (+7) Greens
  6%  (-4) FW
  5% (+1) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

That's just the "Guttenberg-effect". If the elections are today and the CSU-candidate would be Seehofer, the CSU would have difficulties to get 40%.

[Middle-aged Europe]

New Bavaria state elections poll by Emnid for the "Bild":

45% (+2) CSU
18%  (-1) SPD
16% (+7) Greens
  6%  (-4) FW
  5% (+1) Left
  5%  (-3) FDP
  5%  (-2) Others

That's just the "Guttenberg-effect". If the elections are today and the CSU-candidate would be Seehofer, the CSU would have difficulties to get 40%.

Strictly speaking, the CSU was at 45% in almost any poll since the 2008 state election. The sole exception was a January 2010 poll from Infratest where the CSU was at 41%.

There was a lot of movement for the Greens, FDP, and Free Voters in the past two years though.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/bayern.htm

[Franzl]

I think these numbers are about right with Seehofer. I'd expect 50+ for Guttenberg.

[Hans-im-Glück]

I think these numbers are about right with Seehofer. I'd expect 50+ for Guttenberg.

I don't see it so. It is possible when Guttenberg is Candidate that the CSU get 50% or more (btw I can not understand why he is so popular? He stands for nothing and he is just a self-promoter). But when Seehofer is the the candidate again, are 45% an illusion. It would be a surprise for me the CSU get more votes with Seehofer, like in the last election.

OK, the Freie Wähler never get such a result like 2008 and the FDP would have problems with the 5% threshold and this speaks for a better result for the CSU. But I doubt that this could offset the losses to the nonvoters. Seehofer's only a joke and many CSU-voters are very disappointed.

[Franzl]

I dunno about the exact numbers...but I'll tell you why I very strongly approve of Guttenberg: He's a pragmatic, independent thinker willing to challenge conventional wisdom in the party (Wehrpflicht). Everyone knows he's right, but the CDU, in that particular case, supported it for no other reason than tradition. Can you imagine anything like the current reforms under Jung?

That's just the military part, he was a good economic minister as well. I wish Germany had something like primaries, I'd gladly trade Merkel for him.

[Middle-aged Europe]

I dunno about the exact numbers...but I'll tell you why I very strongly approve of Guttenberg: He's a pragmatic, independent thinker willing to challenge conventional wisdom in the party (Wehrpflicht). Everyone knows he's right, but the CDU, in that particular case, supported it for no other reason than tradition. Can you imagine anything like the current reforms under Jung?

Exceeding Franz Josef Jung isn't that hard of a task though.

[minionofmidas]

He was a good economic minister as well.

Wait... where was he even a mitigated disaster in that post?

[tnowacki]

I think, Guttenberg represents the snobbish elite of Bavaria, trying to improve his own appearance whereever he can. People's desires are only secondary for him. In short, he is not representative.

[Tender Branson]

New Bavaria poll by Infratest Dimap:

46% (+3) CSU
17% (+8) Greens
17%  (-2) SPD
  6%  (-2) FDP
  4%  (nc) Left
  4%  (-6) FW
  6%  (-1) Others

Do you support the Olympic Winter Games 2018 in Munich ?

60% Favor
36% Oppose

http://www.br-online.de/bayerisches-fernsehen/kontrovers/index.xml

...

New Berlin poll by Infratest Dimap:

29%    (-2) SPD
25% (+12) Greens
20%    (-1) CDU
17%   (+1) Left
  4%    (-4) FDP
  5%    (-6) Others

http://www.rbb-online.de/nachrichten/politik/2011_01/BerlinTREND.html

Results by West and East Berlin:



Direct vote for Mayor:

[Tender Branson]

New Hamburg poll by Infratest Dimap for the NDR:

43%  (+9) SPD
26% (-17) CDU
17%  (+7) Greens
  5%   (-1) Left
  4%   (-1) FDP
  5%  (+3) Others

Majority for SPD-Greens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Today: An overview over the lead candidates for this year's state elections.

(note: I only included parties which currently poll above 10% in the respective state, therefore there's a fair chance that these people will either become prime minister, deputy PM or the next opposition leader - this comes down to CDU/SPD/Greens in Western and CDU/SPD/Left in Eastern states btw)


Hamburg (February 20)

- Olaf Scholz (SPD), age: 52, former federal minister of labour
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olaf_Scholz

- Christoph Ahlhaus (CDU), age: 41, mayor since August 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christoph_Ahlhaus

- Anja Hajduk (Greens), age: 47, former state minister of city development
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anja_Hajduk


Saxony-Anhalt (March 20)

- Reiner Haseloff (CDU), age: 56, state minister of economy
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reiner_Haseloff

- Wulf Gallert (Left), age: 47, leader of the Left caucus in the state parliament
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wulf_Gallert

- Jens Bullerjahn (SPD), age: 48, state minister of finance
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jens_Bullerjahn


Baden-Württemberg (March 27)

- Stefan Mappus (CDU), age: 44, minister-president since February 2010
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stefan_Mappus

- Winfried Kretschmann (Greens), age: 62, leader of the Green caucus in the state parliament
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winfried_Kretschmann

- Nils Schmid (SPD), age: 37, SPD state chairman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nils_Schmid


Rhineland-Palatinate (March 27)

- Kurt Beck (SPD), age: 61, minister-president since 1994 (currently Germany's longest-serving state PM)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurt_Beck

- Julia Klöckner (CDU), age: 38, secretary of state in the federal ministry of agriculture
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julia_Kl%C3%B6ckner

- Daniel Köbler (Greens), age: 29, Green state chairman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daniel_K%C3%B6bler

- Eveline Lemke (Greens), age: 46, Green state chairwoman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eveline_Lemke


Bremen (May 22)

- Jens Böhrnsen (SPD), age: 61, mayor since 2005 (also former acting president of Germany )
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jens_B%C3%B6hrnsen

- Rita Mohr-Lüllmann (CDU), age: 53, CDU deputy state chairwoman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rita_Mohr-L%C3%BCllmann

- Karoline Linnert (Greens), age: 52, state minister of finance
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karoline_Linnert


Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (September 4)

- Erwin Sellering (SPD), age: 61, minister-president since 2008
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erwin_Sellering

- Lorenz Caffier (CDU), age: 56, state minister of interior
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorenz_Caffier

- Helmut Holter (Left), age: 57, leader of the Left caucus in the state parliament / former state minister of labour
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Helmut_Holter


Berlin (September 18)

- Klaus Wowereit (SPD), age: 57, mayor since 2001
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaus_Wowereit

- Renate Künast (Greens), age: 55, leader of the Green caucus in the German Bundestag / former federal minister of agriculture
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renate_K%C3%BCnast

- Frank Henkel (CDU), age: 47, CDU state chairman
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Henkel

- Harald Wolf (Left), age: 54, state minister of economy
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harald_Wolf

[Insula Dei]

A major newspaper dedicated some pages to the 'crucial year for Angela Merkel's coalition' and said that appart from the obvious implications in the Bundesrat it would also be vital in the run-up to next year's Federal election. How difficult can it be to fact-check something that big??

[Middle-aged Europe]

A major newspaper dedicated some pages to the 'crucial year for Angela Merkel's coalition' and said that appart from the obvious implications in the Bundesrat it would also be vital in the run-up to next year's Federal election. How difficult can it be to fact-check something that big??

For all we know, if those state elections turn out to be a total disaster for Merkel there could be federal elections this year.   But I see what you mean.

[Hash]

A major newspaper dedicated some pages to the 'crucial year for Angela Merkel's coalition' and said that appart from the obvious implications in the Bundesrat it would also be vital in the run-up to next year's Federal election. How difficult can it be to fact-check something that big??

Journalists these days are often quite stupid and useless fools.

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll for Bavaria:

40% CSU
20% Greens
16% SPD
10% FW
  4% Left
  4% FDP
  6% Others

New Forsa poll for Germany:

36% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
20% Greens
  9% Left
  4% FDP
  7% Others