Presidential Ratings and Predictions - Kansas

[ElectionsGuy]

Two votes. One for a rating (Safe D, Lean R, Toss-Up, etc.) and one for a prediction of who will win (Clinton, Trump, or Other).

Note: If you think Johnson/Other will win a state, just vote 'Other' and don't vote for a rating.

Update/vote in these threads if you haven't already! There's no time limit and you can still affect the overall result:

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Ratings

Safe Clinton: 92
Likely Clinton: 0
Lean Clinton: 9
Toss-Up: 35
Lean Trump: 27
Likely Trump: 14
Safe Trump: 19

Clinton: 101
Trump: 60
Toss-Up: 35

Predictions

Clinton: 136
Trump: 60

Kansas: Safe R, 56-39 Trump. Also changing Florida from Toss-Up to Lean D after a batch of national polls show Clinton up 8/9/10, thinking of changing Georgia to Lean R.

Temporarily (or permanently, depending) added first names and labels to the candidates to see if it will  increase or decrease the votes in the prediction part of the poll. If there's no difference or percentage of votes cast decrease, then I'll go back to the old style.

[evergreenarbor]

Safe R.

Trump: 54
Clinton: 38
Johnson: 7
Others: 1

[Lyin' Steve]

Honestly put Likely R, Kansas has some quirky behavior sometimes.  Trump got thoroughly trounced by Cruz with only 23% of the vote.  It's a very religious state, and there's a lot of anti-wingnut mood there with the high disapproval of Brownback and the Huelskamp defeat.  Plus, since 1991 half of the gubernatorial terms have been filled by three democrats.  If Trump loses in a landslide, West Virginia, Alabama, Oklahoma and Idaho may hold out for him, but I could see Kansas flipping if Clinton wins by 10-15.

[Xing]

Safe R, Trump wins 56-41.

[Crumpets]

Safe R, but given the Senate and Governor's races in 2014, I can see Hillary getting it within 15 points.

[dspNY]

Safe R but Trump was deeply unpopular with Kansas Repubs in the primary so his margin of victory will be well below a normal Republican

Trump 51
Clinton 40
Johnson 7
Stein 2

[Lachi]

lol @ the safe D reference in the polls.

[LLR]

Lean R ()

Trump +12 or so

[Wells]

Safe R, Trump wins 49-42

[Cruzcrew]

Safe D thanks to polling information from Zogby
Clinton 51
Trump 44
Johnson 4
Other 1

[Sir Mohamed]

Still Safe R.

✓ Trump: 56.8%
Clinton: 39.8%

[heatcharger]

Somewhere between Likely R and Safe R, closer to Safe R.

Trump 56
Clinton 40
Other 4

[Gass3268]

Safe R, but Trump is really going to underperform and Brownback is going to help drag the numbers down a bit.

55-42-3 (Trump-Clinton-Other)

[Senator-elect Spark]

Safe R.

Trump 58
Clinton 40
Johnson 2

[hurricanehink]

I think there is a chance this could be a sleeper race. Kansasans have been doing some soul searching since 2012. They don't like their current republican governor but reelected him anyway, Tim Huelskamp (a tea partier) lost his primary. I don't think it's very likely, but I have enough doubt that I put likely R instead of Safe R.

[Suburbia]

Still Safe R.

✓ Trump: 56.8%
Clinton: 39.8%

[Suburbia]

I think there is a chance this could be a sleeper race. Kansasans have been doing some soul searching since 2012. They don't like their current republican governor but reelected him anyway, Tim Huelskamp (a tea partier) lost his primary. I don't think it's very likely, but I have enough doubt that I put likely R instead of Safe R.

This is possible as well.

[tinman64]

Safe R. Reliably Republican Kansas.

Trump 55
Clinton 41
Others 4

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Likely R. 
Trump by 8-10 points. 

It would take a monumental, LBJ-style blowout to flip it.

[VPH]

Absolutely safe GOP. Kansas very rarely even gives the Democratic nominee over 40%. It's happened 3 times in the last 50 years. (Carter 1976, Dukakis, Obama 2008) Kansas will not flip to Democrats. That being said, I could see Hillary hit 42-43%, which is better than Democrats usually do. Kansas Democrats are unusually organized on the state level (fielding senate candidates for every district), Jay Sidie has the DCCC on his side, Kansas voted strongly against Trump and for Cruz, the typical 'Trump demographic' isn't really prevalent, and Johnson County is prime territory for Hillary to make gains and maybe even win. Hillary will almost certainly outperform Obama 2012 and maybe 2008. I'd keep an eye on Crawford and Lyon counties. Crawford is white, working class, in an area that used to have lots of mining. Usually a good spot for Democrats but we'll see how Trump plays there. Lyon is also a poorer county, but it has a pretty high Hispanic population. Out west, some of the majority Hispanic counties could swing (but not flip. Maybe from 80-20 to like 70-30) to Hillary if outreach/registration efforts are strong enough.

[Maxwell]

Likely R. Trump is such a poor fit for Kansas. I still suspect he wins by at least 8, though.

I mean, you consider Romney and McCain, they have have been weak nominees in some respect, but both had generally normal nice guy Republican appeal.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Should be safe for Trump, even if his campaign continues to implode. Hillary would likely target other states before it in such a scenario, like Indiana and South Carolina.

[pbrower2a]

The Kansas GOP has some ugly rifts, and they Donald Trump is likely to aggravate them. probably not enough for Democrats to win the state, but the Sunflower State will be far closer than one would usually expect.

When the relatively moderate wing of the Kansas Republican Party takes over the Democratic Party, then the game is up for the Hard Right in Kansas. 

[President Johnson]

Still safe R.

Trump: 55%
Hillary: 38%
Johnson: 4%

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Likely R, Trump 52-45