Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

I disagree with Tender regarding the scale of the problems.... (my public school was good enough anyway ) and vienna is building A LOT of new apartments (my district alone adds about a quarter of its population during the next years) ....but in general that's the gist.

mixture of real problems and imagined ones, combined with the fact, that the SPÖ isn't able to subsidize all their voters anymore as in the past and the fpö vienna promises everything and nothing.

it is going to be a key question this october, if the 40 points fpö and 24 points spö poll was even close to reality.

It will be the other way around: The poll you quote is a state election poll, not a federal election one. The SPÖ will get 35-40%, the FPÖ around 25-28%.

The state election poll was conducted during the height of the Vienna-SPÖ's problems.

[Tender Branson]

Some important economic data was released today:

* Q1, 2017 GDP is up by 0.6% q/q and up by 2.3% compared with Q1, 2016.

* Unemployment is down to 5.5%, from 6% a year ago (women: 4.9%, men: 6.1%)

* The March production index was up by 3.3% compared with a year ago

* Budget deficit for Jan-Apr so far down by 35% compared with a year ago (was 1.6% last year)

[Tender Branson]

The liberal NEOS will have their campaign kick-off event tomorrow evening, called "Our new Austria: Land of great opportunities/chances" - where NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz will speak about his and the party's visions for the country.

For this, Strolz is also out with a new book about his personal background and ideas for the country:



http://ichtuwas.neos.eu/unser-neues-oesterreich

It will still be pretty tough for them during the campaign. I see a lot of former Green and NEOS-voters in the rural parts of the country tactically voting for Kurz in the end and many Green-voters in the urban/suburban areas for Kern. Former NEOS-voters in urban/suburban areas could also end up voting for Kurz.

It's important for NEOS to get Irmgard Griss on board. Otherwise the 4% threshold is waiting for them.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP party convention where Sebastian Kurz will be officially elected party leader has been set for Saturday, July 1, in Linz.

And the Green convention to elect the Lunacek/Felipe ticket will also be held in Linz, on June 25.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ and ÖVP have agreed to introduce the job creation bonus with July 1.

http://orf.at/stories/2393818

Interested companies who plan to hire workers can apply for the bonus starting on July 1, with the payments starting retroactively on Jan. 1, 2018.

If companies hire additional workers, 50% of payroll taxes are re-funded by the state for each newly-hired worker. The bonus runs for 3 years and is worth 2 billion €.

[Tender Branson]

May is now over, time for the June poll.

Plz vote on top of the page.

May Poll: Today is May Day/International Workers Day and the Vienna-SPÖ is in deep internal trouble. Who do you support as Vienna mayor Häupl's successor - once he steps down ?

46.7% Michael Ludwig (14 votes)
23.3% Jürgen Czernohorszky (7 votes)
16.7% Ulli Sima (5 votes)
  6.7% Doris Bures (2 votes)
  6.7% Renate Brauner (2 votes)

April Poll: Do you support or oppose the expulsion of the Young Greens from the Austrian Green Party ?

45.5% Support (10 votes)
54.5% Oppose (12 votes)

March poll: How would you have voted in the 1986 Presidential election ?

66.7% Kurt Steyrer (SPÖ) - (16 votes)
33.3% Kurt Waldheim (ÖVP) - (8 votes)

February poll: Do you support or oppose the introduction of a religion-neutral public full-face veil ban, with an initial fine of 150€ ?

53.8% Yes (21 votes)
46.2% No (18 votes)

January Poll: Will the SPÖVP coalition last until 2018 ?

75.9% Yes (22 votes)
24.1% No (7 votes)

[Tender Branson]

June Poll: Predict turnout in the Oct. 15 election

...

Turnout in the 2013 parliamentary election was 75%.

Plz vote on top of the page.

Thxfefe.

[Tender Branson]

The legendary ÖVP-politician, party leader and foreign minister Alois Mock has died today:

Ex-Austrian minister who helped tear down Iron Curtain dies



(In this June 27, 1989 file picture, then Hungarian Foreign Minister Gyula Horn, right, along with his Austrian counterpart Alois Mock, left, cut through the barbed wire of the former Iron Curtain marking the border between East and West in Sopron, Hungary. Former Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Mock is dead, nearly three decades after he and his Hungarian counterpart made world headlines by cutting through fencing that represented the communist Iron Curtain separating the two countries. Mock died Thursday, June 1, 2017 at age 82.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ex-austrian-minister-who-helped-tear-down-iron-curtain-dies/2017/06/01/4b3b4610-46d5-11e7-8de1-cec59a9bf4b1_story.html

...

In other news, the Carinthia state parliament voted today to pass a new state constitution (slightly more friendly towards the Slovenian minority) and more important, to get rid of the Proporz-system with the next state election in early 2018.

Under Proporz, every party achieving at least 10% of the vote, was part of the state government. In the case of Carinthia it means that the state currently has a SPÖ-Green-ÖVP coalition in parliament, but FPÖ and Team Stronach are in the government as well because they got more than 10% in the last state election.

From 2018 on, only the states of Upper Austria and Lower Austria will still have a Proporz-system.

[mgop]

The legendary ÖVP-politician, party leader and foreign minister Alois Mock has died today:

Ex-Austrian minister who helped tear down Iron Curtain dies



(In this June 27, 1989 file picture, then Hungarian Foreign Minister Gyula Horn, right, along with his Austrian counterpart Alois Mock, left, cut through the barbed wire of the former Iron Curtain marking the border between East and West in Sopron, Hungary. Former Austrian Foreign Minister Alois Mock is dead, nearly three decades after he and his Hungarian counterpart made world headlines by cutting through fencing that represented the communist Iron Curtain separating the two countries. Mock died Thursday, June 1, 2017 at age 82.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/ex-austrian-minister-who-helped-tear-down-iron-curtain-dies/2017/06/01/4b3b4610-46d5-11e7-8de1-cec59a9bf4b1_story.html

...

In other news, the Carinthia state parliament voted today to pass a new state constitution (slightly more friendly towards the Slovenian minority) and more important, to get rid of the Proporz-system with the next state election in early 2018.

Under Proporz, every party achieving at least 10% of the vote, was part of the state government. In the case of Carinthia it means that the state currently has a SPÖ-Green-ÖVP coalition in parliament, but FPÖ and Team Stronach are in the government as well because they got more than 10% in the last state election.

From 2018 on, only the states of Upper Austria and Lower Austria will still have a Proporz-system.

he also helped tear down yugoslavia. good to hear that devil died.

[Tender Branson]

NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz is currently delivering a very energetic campaign kickoff speech:



It's shown live on PULS 4 TV.

Maybe NEOS will follow the FDP and re-gain some lost ground in the next months ?

[Tender Branson]

The "Economist" has an article about the upcoming election:

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21722881-sebastian-kurz-wants-break-up-system-has-governed-his-country-decades

[Tender Branson]

Some important news about the almost-politically-bankrupt "Team Stronach":

The 85-year old Frank Stronach has already pulled out of his project, won't fund the party anymore and said the party will have to find a new name without the "Stronach" in it.

Therefore, the new name for the election will likely be "Team for Austria."

The name "Team Austria" cannot be taken because it already belongs to a well-known volunteer group after natural disasters (Team Österreich).

And more importantly, Robert Lugar won't lead the party into the election either ...

It is speculated that the TfA will soon present the radical columnist of the "Krone" newspaper and attorney, Dr. Tassilo Wallentin, as their frontrunner.



http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5228508/Team-Stronach-sucht-neuen-Spitzenkandidaten

[Tender Branson]

The public ORF plans 15 (!) election debates or "duels" between the major parties.

For example: SPÖ vs. ÖVP, ÖVP vs. Greens, NEOS vs. FPÖ and so on ...

Sebastian Kurz wants to debate only Chancellor Kern and FPÖ-leader Strache, while sending someone else from the ÖVP to the remaining duels.

The SPÖ and Kern are not amused with this and want Kurz to take part in every duel.

A few days before the election, there will also be an "elephant debate" with all 6 major party frontrunners.

I guess there will also be a minor-party debate, but it remains be to be seen which parties will have enough signatures.

[Tender Branson]

Kern, Kurz, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Van der Bellen and Schwarzenegger are all heavily attacking Trump for pulling out of the Paris climate agreement.

[DavidB.]

Kern, Kurz, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Van der Bellen and Schwarzenegger are all heavily attacking Trump for pulling out of the Paris climate agreement.

FPÖ? Why? In order to look sensible/responsible? Don't believe they truly support Paris.

[Tender Branson]

Kern, Kurz, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Van der Bellen and Schwarzenegger are all heavily attacking Trump for pulling out of the Paris climate agreement.

FPÖ? Why? In order to look sensible/responsible? Don't believe they truly support Paris.

FPÖ-politicians are pretty mixed on the issue of climate change, with Upper Austrian FPÖ-leader Haimbuchner being ignorant about it. Also the FPÖ's MEP Vilimsky. Strache was a climate-change critic back in 2013 but has not said much about it in the past 4 years (probably because he now understands the importance of the issue even among his voters). The Vienna FPÖ is more or less for combating climate change. As was Norbert Hofer, who was basically a secret Green Party member on this issue.

Some FPÖ-politicians are quite different than the vast majority of FPÖ-voters on this issue: You probably know that Austrians are a very nature-loving folk, proud of their clean rivers and lakes and meadows etc. and a huge majority wants to keep it that way. Austrians are also world champions in recycling. And unlike in the US, Austria has no coal miners or fracking folks that are brainwashed by the coal and gas-lobby.

I found a poll from late 2015 from Profil magazine, in which 82% of Austrians said they think combating climate change is very important for them, with only 18% saying it's not.

FPÖ-voters were of course the most sceptical folk, but even among them only 27% said that combating climate change is not important.

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-klimaschutz-6126229

[TheSaint250]

Kern, Kurz, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Van der Bellen and Schwarzenegger are all heavily attacking Trump for pulling out of the Paris climate agreement.

FPÖ? Why? In order to look sensible/responsible? Don't believe they truly support Paris.

Marine Le Pen said the decision to pull out is regrettable. Some right wing populists are in favor of stopping climate change

[Tender Branson]

Kern, Kurz, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS, Van der Bellen and Schwarzenegger are all heavily attacking Trump for pulling out of the Paris climate agreement.

FPÖ? Why? In order to look sensible/responsible? Don't believe they truly support Paris.

Marine Le Pen said the decision to pull out is regrettable. Some right wing populists are in favor of stopping climate change

Yepp. Norbert Hofer for example is personally and politically greener than most centrist or even center-left wingers. He even has solar-panels installed on the roof of his own house ...

[DavidB.]

I hadn't forgotten about that particular aspect of the Austrian/German far right, but for some reason I thought they would care more about countering pollution from the standpoint that it simply harms the pure Austrian land than because of something as abstract and global as climate change -- but I understand how these can easily go hand in hand. Makes sense.

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Research Affairs for "Österreich" newspaper, n=600, May 30-June 2):

34% ÖVP (-1%)
26% FPÖ
21% SPÖ (+1%)
10% Greens (+1%)
  6% NEOS (-1%)
  3% Others

http://oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Ohne-Kurz-ist-OeVP-nix/285942367

[Tender Branson]

Research Affairs also has a new Vienna poll out, but for the state elections (which are in 2020):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Watsche-fuer-Rot-Gruen/286020278

Changes compared with 2015:

FPÖ: +7%
SPÖ: -16%
Greens: +4%
ÖVP: +3%
NEOS: +2%

[ApatheticAustrian]

spö losses make sense....the last election was kind of a "coalition" election against the fpö.

at some point the fpö is going to govern again, it would just be interesting IFFFFFFFFFF the fpö is still going to be large after 2-3 years of governing.

[Tender Branson]

Sebastian Kurz plans a 14 Bio. € (!!!) tax cut if he's elected in October, according to an interview he gave to Bloomberg:

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-06-03/austria-s-kurz-plans-14-billion-of-tax-cuts-to-boost-growth

2016 already saw a tax cut (by SPÖ and ÖVP), worth of some 5 Bio. € - my monthly wage increased by about 90€ or 5%. The 2016 tax cut was done to get the economy back on track (which it did, growing by 2.3% now) and increase spending by consumers (which it achieved, VAT revenues rose by something like 8% last year). On the other hand, the budget deficit increased to 1.6% of GDP because income tax revenues fell.

A 14 Bio. € tax cut would probably lead to an increase in monthly wages for each employee by about 15-20%, depending on the income.

The question will just be: How does Kurz plan to finance such a huge tax cut ? Welfare payment cuts to foreigners will be worth just 0.5-1 Bio. €, but where are the other 13 Bio. € coming from ?

[ApatheticAustrian]

this is sheer madness.

and there wouldn't be any wage increases ofc.

such things can't be forced, they happen automatically if the economy is booming over some time.

at the same time, austrians would get muuuuch fewer services from government....we just don't know who are the unlucky fools.

[Tender Branson]

this is sheer madness.

and there wouldn't be any wage increases ofc.

such things can't be forced, they happen automatically if the economy is booming over some time.

at the same time, austrians would get muuuuch fewer services from government....we just don't know who are the unlucky fools.

True, a tax cut of this size is utopic and unsustainable and could only come with a massive cut in social services - hurting all Austrians, not just the foreigners he says will see their welfare cut.

But I see this actually more as a tactical plot to lure FPÖ-voters into his camp, because the FPÖ also has the spending cut to 40% of GDP in their coming economic platform. The actual tax-cut by Kurz would likely be much smaller after the election.