2018 Congressional Recruitment/Fundraising/Ratings Megathread

[GeorgiaModerate]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

CookPoliticalReport @CookPolitical

Today's Rating Changes:
#AZ02 (OPEN R-McSally): Toss Up -> Lean D
#OH12 (OPEN R-Tiberi): Solid R -> Likely R
#WA05 (R-McMorris Rodgers): Solid R -> Likely R

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/951902115152117760

McSally is really bad at being a politician.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

Devin Nunes and maybe even Kevin McCarthy.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Yikes. That alone means all Clinton districts in California fall and probably a few surprises too.

Devin Nunes and maybe even Kevin McCarthy.

Tom McClintock would probably get swept out before McCarthy. McCarthy would be one of the absolute last to fall along with LaMalfa.

[smoltchanov]

McSally is really bad at being a politician.

Arizona's primary electorate is generally pro-Trump and very conservative. More, then her present district. And you need to win primary first. So - explainable at least.

[The Other Castro]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

Great fundraising numbers for a congressional district, but Paul Ryan has insane cash reserves he can tap into.

I think Ryan will have to do something very visibly dumb or the environment to get worse for Bryce to have a shot.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

A fool and his money are soon to part

[Brittain33]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

A fool and his money are soon to part

Looks like a Jon Ossoff effect where one candidate is getting way more national money than he ought to, and it's probably a waste.

[Kamala]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

[Jeppe]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

Hirono is only 70, she has another few terms left in her, especially being from Hawaii.

[YE]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

Hirono is only 70, she has another few terms left in her, especially being from Hawaii.

Doesn't she have end stage cancer?

[Jeppe]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

Hirono is only 70, she has another few terms left in her, especially being from Hawaii.

Doesn't she have end stage cancer?

She has late-stage kidney cancer, but she's had treatment and the prognosis is good. McCain is the Senator with a terminal cancer.

[YE]

I would actually have thought that some older D senators would’ve retired this year, such as Carper, Cardin, Hirono,  and Feinstein, since it would be guaranteed that their seats would be won by Democrats in such a D-leaning year. Then the next election cycle, which we don’t know how it will Lean, they would be held by incumbents and be less vulnerable than an open seat situation.

I’m not surprised though, since politicians are entirely self-interested creatures. They wouldn’t do something for the party if it requires them to sacrifice something.

Hirono is only 70, she has another few terms left in her, especially being from Hawaii.

Doesn't she have end stage cancer?

She has late-stage kidney cancer, but she's had treatment and the prognosis is good.

Ok that's great to hear!

[smoltchanov]

WI-01: Randy Bryce raised $1.2 Million in the fourth quarter.

https://mobile.twitter.com/isaacdovere/status/952210279592493056?ref_src=twcamp%5Eshare%7Ctwsrc%5Eios%7Ctwgr%5Eother

A fool and his money are soon to part

Looks like a Jon Ossoff effect where one candidate is getting way more national money than he ought to, and it's probably a waste.

+1

[Blair]

Couldn't find a FL thread to post this, and relates to recruitment but.... Possible sign that Rick Scott isn't 100% behind running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.9665e350a0b2

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[Holmes]

Couldn't find a FL thread to post this, and relates to recruitment but.... Possible sign that Rick Scott isn't 100% behind running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.9665e350a0b2

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The stupid offshore drilling shenanigan was clearly the White House pushing Scott. I still maintain that Rubio won't run again in 2022 and if Scott wants an easy, cheap seat, he should go for that.

[Young Conservative]

Couldn't find a FL thread to post this, and relates to recruitment but.... Possible sign that Rick Scott isn't 100% behind running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.9665e350a0b2

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The stupid offshore drilling shenanigan was clearly the White House pushing Scott. I still maintain that Rubio won't run again in 2022 and if Scott wants an easy, cheap seat, he should go for that.

Rubio will run again, and Scott will be forgotten by then and someone’s new will draw attention. It’s now or never for him.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Couldn't find a FL thread to post this, and relates to recruitment but.... Possible sign that Rick Scott isn't 100% behind running.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/new-alarm-among-republicans-that-democrats-could-win-big-this-year/2018/01/13/9be31acc-f8a8-11e7-beb6-c8d48830c54d_story.html?utm_term=.9665e350a0b2

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The stupid offshore drilling shenanigan was clearly the White House pushing Scott. I still maintain that Rubio won't run again in 2022 and if Scott wants an easy, cheap seat, he should go for that.

Rubio will run again, and Scott will be forgotten by then and someone’s new will draw attention. It’s now or never for him.

Rubio himself said last year that he has no fun as senator and I don't think that has changed for the better under Trump's administration. He will probably retire in 2022 to focus on his presidential run.

[King Lear]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

Those numbers are rally bad for Democrats, they can’t flip the house with a 5 point lead.

[YE]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

Those numbers are rally bad for Democrats, they can’t flip the house with a 5 point lead.

Emerson is a landline only pollster.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

Those numbers are rally bad for Democrats, they can’t flip the house with a 5 point lead.

They haven't done a poll since February of last year and in it the R's lead and this is the take away? Do you just do this to bug people?

[Pericles]

Emerson, Jan 8-11, 600 RV

D 45
R 40

The last one of theirs I can find with generic ballot is from Feb, and was R 48, D 46.

Those numbers are rally bad for Democrats, they can’t flip the house with a 5 point lead.

They had Moore up by 9(and you had him up by 10). With an 11-point adjustment to the Dems the Dems actually lead by 13 points.

[NatAl]

Everyone who thinks that Democrats win by more than 5 points, should check their mental faculties

[KingSweden]

When do Q4 fundraising numbers come out?

A lot of candidates are self reporting right now, I believe the deadline is the end of this month. DKE has a wealth of information on this sort of thing, usually with daily updates in their live digests. They may have a master list somewhere on the site.