Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is lowering expectations for the Carinthia state election tomorrow:

Is the right person (no pun intended) Andreas Gabalier?

Nope.

It is Gernot Darmann, the leader of the FPÖ-Carinthia.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

But I think Gabalier is an FPÖ supporter, too?

[Tender Branson]

But I think Gabalier is an FPÖ supporter, too?

He shares many of their views yes. But not sure if he ever publicly supported them.

[Tender Branson]

The polls for the Carinthia state election are now open !

Polls close between noon and 3pm in most smaller towns and at 4pm in all others.

People can still drop off their postal ballots in the district election commissions until 5pm, so the first projection will come shortly after (as usual).

The votes should be counted by 7pm (except some 20.000 postal ballots, which are counted tomorrow).

[Tender Branson]

Reuters article about the election today:

Power erodes far right's appeal as old stronghold votes

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics-carinthia/power-erodes-far-rights-appeal-as-old-stronghold-votes-idUSKCN1GF0FE

[Tender Branson]

If I were a Carinthia voter, there would only be one logical choice today: SPÖ.

It is extremely refreshing to see that the SPÖ-led government and Governor Peter Kaiser have managed to turn Carinthia back into a normal state that is not constantly in the news (in a negative way).

Also, Carinthia had a 85 Mio. € budget surplus (!) last year and started to pay down the huge debt level from the Jörg Haider era (debt decreased by 129 Mio. € last year), but it remains close to 4 Bio. € - which means the state has to reduce their debt level by at least 40 Mio. € each year for the next 30 years to be back at pre-Haider-levels.

Some candidates have already voted:



Team Stronach Carinthia frontrunner Gerhard Köfer + wife.



NEOS frontrunner Markus Unterdorfer-Morgenstern + family.

[Tender Branson]

I'm not at home right now, so not a lot of updates from me - but here is the first projection for Carinthia by SORA for the ORF:

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do they still need a coalition partner of they get exactly half the seats?

Also lol what a flop for the minors.

[Tender Branson]

Do they still need a coalition partner of they get exactly half the seats?

Also lol what a flop for the minors.

The SPÖ is now down to 17/39 seats, despite getting 48% of the vote vs. 44% for the others above the threshold (I guess this has to do with the 4 electoral districts and how seats are allocated).

The new projection (92.7% counted):

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This may be a stupid question, but what is the "profile" of Carinthia? What made it so vulnerable to Haider? Is it considered economically prosperous? What are its main industries?

[Tender Branson]

This may be a stupid question, but what is the "profile" of Carinthia? What made it so vulnerable to Haider? Is it considered economically prosperous? What are its main industries?

A combination of some factors such as:

* being a strong working-class state
* a lot of people employed in manufacturing
* rural outmigration of educated people
* the largest amount of people with only an apprenticeship as their highest education
* the 2nd-highest unemployment rate after Vienna

[Tender Branson]

I still think that the SPÖ will end up with 18/36 seats in the end, which means they'd still need a coalition partner, because the opposition parties could block every budget or proposed law.

[palandio]

This may be a stupid question, but what is the "profile" of Carinthia? What made it so vulnerable to Haider? Is it considered economically prosperous? What are its main industries?

Don't forget history. Already before and after WWI, the (center-)right in Carinthia was dominated by German nationalist forces while the elsewhere strong Christian Socials were very, very weak in Carinthia. This can to a large degree be attributed to tensions with the Slovenian minority. Also in those areas of Styria, Upper Austria and Carinthia where many farmers had already been free and relatively wealthy prior to the peasant liberation, they were more susceptible to non-clerical right-wing politics.

[Tender Branson]

Only the capital Klagenfurt and the 2nd largest city Villach left to count.

Plus some 20.000-25.000 postal ballots tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

I still think that the SPÖ will end up with 18/36 seats in the end, which means they'd still need a coalition partner, because the opposition parties could block every budget or proposed law.

So who are they likely to form a coaltion with? OeVP?

Definitely not with the FPÖ, because Gov. Kaiser is strongly opposed to this idea.

The ÖVP has been really nasty with the SPÖ over the past months and would likely be a nasty coalition partner as well.

That leaves Team Köfer as the most likely coalition partner. They are small (5%) and if they get a good enough deal from the SPÖ, there should be nothing in the way of such a coalition.

[Soonerdem]

Am I right that this is a Disappointing result for the OVP Tender?

[Tender Branson]

Wowza, the capital Klagenfurt and 2nd-largest city Villach have just came in and the SPÖ there has gained 13% (!) in the capital and got 53.4% and gained 11% in Villach and got 52.5% there.

With the postal ballot count tomorrow, it is pretty likely that the SPÖ ends up with 48% or more and 18/36 seats.

The FPÖ should drop back by quite a bit (they always do badly with absentees).

Am I right that this is a Disappointing result for the OVP Tender?

A very disappointing result, yes.

The FPÖ result is not bad and in line with recent polls, but still far below their expectations.

It seems the SPÖ is slowly finding their way into the opposition role with the recent gains in the state elections - while ÖVP/FPÖ are receiving mixed results.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ-leader Kern and Governor Kaiser in party mode today:

[windjammer]

Is a FPO minority government possible?

I mean, in that scenario the oppositio would never have the 51% vote to topple them anyway.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Is ERDE a green split?

[Tender Branson]

Is a FPO minority government possible?

I mean, in that scenario the oppositio would never have the 51% vote to topple them anyway.

Nope. The SPÖ has 18/36 seats.

Is ERDE a green split?

Not exactly.

ERDE (= Responsibility Earth) is a ecological/leftist party that was founded in 2013 by a Jesus-lookalike politician from the city of Villach - at a time when the Greens were still extremely popular.

Now, with the Greens being purged it seems that some former Green Party voters decided to vote for them (and they got a respectable 2% and around 5-6% around Villach).

The actual Green splinter party is FAIR (0.2%)

[Tender Branson]

Final Carinthia state election results (with all postal ballots counted):

47.94% SPÖ (+10.81%)
22.96% FPÖ (+6.11%)
15.45% ÖVP (+1.05%)
  5.67% TK (-5.51%)
  3.12% Greens (-8.98%)
  2.14% NEOS (+2.14%)
  1.85% Responsibility Earth (+1.85%)
  0.37% BZÖ (-6.03%)
  0.28% KPÖ (+0.28%)
  0.21% FAIR (+0.21%)

http://www.ktn.gv.at/wahlen/lt2018

Somewhat weird fact:

The SPÖ got 48% and FPÖ+ÖVP+TK got a combined 44%, yet the SPÖ got only 18/36 seats.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the final results chart + seats + turnout:

[Tender Branson]

Vote by age groups:



Vote by gender and age groups:



Vote by blue-collar vs. white-collar workers:

[Tender Branson]

Some results maps: