Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[pbrower2a]

Jesse James School of Banking, Missouri:

Trump approval 63%, disapproval 28%

Southern Michigan State University, Michigan:

Trump approval  46%, disapproval 44%

Fort Wayne Times, Indiana:

Trump approval 68%, disapproval 18%

Quennipiac, Connecticut

Trump approval 42%, disapproval 48%

Madoff School of Business, New Jersey

Trump approval 46%, disapproval 58%

Klavern #700, Alabama

Trump approval 100% (whites  only)

[Progressive Pessimist]

Jesse James School of Banking, Missouri:

Trump approval 63%, disapproval 28%

Southern Michigan State University, Michigan:

Trump approval  46%, disapproval 44%

Fort Wayne Times, Indiana:

Trump approval 68%, disapproval 18%

Quennipiac, Connecticut

Trump approval 42%, disapproval 48%

Madoff School of Business, New Jersey

Trump approval 46%, disapproval 58%

Klavern #700, Alabama

Trump approval 100% (whites  only)

This might be the most predictable poll result ever. You just gotta love my neighboring state. Their deep fried jock straps don't taste as good as the ones in my state though. That's Florida's state delicacy!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Back to reality...

Morning Consult/Politico national tracker (weekly), March 29-April 1, 1945 RV

Approve 42 (+1)
Disapprove 53 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov (weekly), March 31-April 2, 1500 adults including 1227 RV

Adults:

Approve 42 (-1)
Disapprove 50 (+1)

Strongly approve 22 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 38 (-1)

RV:

Approve 43 (-3)
Disapprove 54 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 45 (nc)

2020: Generic D 40 (-1), Trump 34 (-2)

[Skye]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brooklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

[ProudModerate2]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brroklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

It pleases me to see how trump's home town of NYC hates that MotherF'er to the max.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brroklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

I doubt his approval in The Bronx is that high.

[Crumpets]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brroklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

It pleases me to see how trump's home town of NYC hates that MotherF'er to the max.

Even more specifically, the precinct that contains Trump Tower swung a full 35 points to the Democrats between 2012 and 2016.

[President Johnson]

Trump approval in the Bronx and Manhattan doesn't hit double digits. Come on.

[pbrower2a]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brooklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

It pleases me to see how trump's home town of NYC hates that MotherF'er to the max.

I notice that in 2016, three of the worst eleven states for Trump were Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York, the states that contain  the Greater New York City metro area. He is probably better known in those three states than in any others. Most of the time a political figure at any level at the least matches to some extent the political culture of his region or at least his home state. In three of the worst blowouts in American electoral history, Goldwater somehow won Arizona while losing everything outside of the South; McGovern did about 8% better in South Dakota than he did nationwide despite being in a state that usually votes for a Republican for President; Mondale won only the sure-thing of the District of Columbia and his own state. Residents of Arizona (1964), South Dakota (1972), and Minnesota (1984) had cause to like their Favorite Son more than America did as a whole.

The more that people knew Donald Trump, the less they seemed to like him. I look at the approval polls, and I see low approval for him even if things haven't gone really bad (as with an economic meltdown, military disaster, or diplomatic debacle) yet. People are beginning to know him for what he is in states that he barely lost and barely won, and they dislike him. The only people who like his style are those ideologically compatible with him despite an obnoxious personality. He has developed a personality cult, which (paradoxically) a hollow person needs as a political leader.

Obviously he was less well known in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin than in New York. Was he so much in the limelight of news coverage in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Detroit, or Milwaukee (or for that matter the Three C's of Ohio) before he ran for President as he was in the Tri-State area around "Gotham City"? Now he is well known in far more places. It is safe to assume that Donald Trump is the very person who exemplifies a New Yorker at the nastiest in a place like... well, just about anywhere.

Having never been in New York City, I can only assume that what people dislike in an uncouth, hollow, privileged loud-mouth from New York City is similarly unwelcome in New York City.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brooklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

[Person Man]

Quinnipiac-NYC:

Approve: 26
Disapprove: 71

The Bronx: 22/74
Brooklyn: 32/64
Manhattan: 19/81
Queens: 21/73
Staten Island: 47/52

This could be a poll that is that is evidence that Donald Trump’s votes may be less efficiently  allocated then they were in 2016 or it could just have been a bad poll.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

[Person Man]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

That's probably the most generic situation. 46% of people who show up will vote any Republican over any Democrat and vice versa. 2008 might have been the very peak of what anyone could do.

[Badger]

Trump approval in the Bronx and Manhattan doesn't hit double digits. Come on.

Aren't there still some Orthodox neighborhoods in the Bronx, as well as some very high-end wealthy areas in the far north of the borough? Think of that neighborhood I think called City Island where Borough president what's his face, the father of that far right evangical Hispanic assemblyman lives. Though I agree these numbers seem rather High.

I for one am pleased that he is below water on the island.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

According to RCP, Pelosi and Trump's approvals match at -8.6

That's probably the most generic situation. 46% of people who show up will vote any Republican over any Democrat and vice versa. 2008 might have been the very peak of what anyone could do.

I also feel that with Pelosi, it's a rally-around-the-leader effect. In the first two years of Trump, the Dems lacked a clear leader to stand on the national stage and articulate the party's vision, and when Pelosi took the helm everyone in the party got behind her because "This is our leader, and we need to defend her."

[pbrower2a]

Net approval map from Morning Consult for March 2019

I do not have approve/disapprove numbers, so these are hardly comparable to approval and disapproval. A +5 net approval or a -5% disapproval means far more at a 52-47 split than at 47-42 split. This does not supplant my earlier maps.  I assume that DC is extremely hostile to Trump due to its demographics.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

maroon 20% or higher net  disapproval  158
red 11% to 20% net disapproval  75
pink 6% to 10% net disapproval 43
white 1% to 5% net disapproval 60
light blue tie to 5% net approval 97
blue 6% to 10% net approval 26
navy 11%+ net approval (I see no reason to color this in)

Although net disapproval is not as reliable a predictor of a Trump loss as is 100-disapproval, it is relevant.  I an astonished to see Pennsylvania in the third category, but a 7% negative edge is decisive unless the Democrats nominate someone with severe and obvious flaws. The white category, which I normally use for the zone of equal chance or a tie, gives a Democrat an edge even if it contains Virginia (4% is the usual margin of error). This category includes Florida and Ohio.

Indiana is a real shocker, as it looks on the fringe of contention. Then again, Obama did win Indiana in 2008. As a general  rule, a Republican needs to be winning Indiana by a double-digit margin to have a real chance of winning nationwide. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Net approval map from Morning Consult for March 2019

I do not have approve/disapprove numbers, so these are hardly comparable to approval and disapproval. A +5 net approval or a -5% disapproval means far more at a 52-47 split than at 47-42 split. This does not supplant my earlier maps.  I assume that DC is extremely hostile to Trump due to its demographics.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

maroon 20% or higher net  disapproval  158
red 11% to 20% net disapproval  75
pink 6% to 10% net disapproval 43
white 1% to 5% net disapproval 60
light blue tie to 5% net approval 97
blue 6% to 10% net approval 26
navy 11%+ net approval (I see no reason to color this in)

Although net disapproval is not as reliable a predictor of a Trump loss as is 100-disapproval, it is relevant.  I an astonished to see Pennsylvania in the third category, but a 7% negative edge is decisive unless the Democrats nominate someone with severe and obvious flaws. The white category, which I normally use for the zone of equal chance or a tie, gives a Democrat an edge even if it contains Virginia (4% is the usual margin of error). This category includes Florida and Ohio.

Indiana is a real shocker, as it looks on the fringe of contention. Then again, Obama did win Indiana in 2008. As a general  rule, a Republican needs to be winning Indiana by a double-digit margin to have a real chance of winning nationwide. 

Hahaha, his approval is undeniably worse than that in Virginia.

[forgotten manatee]

Trump is beyond toxic in northern Virginia, which is basically a massive (and growing larger yet) DC suburb. Voters here were deeply impacted by the long and pointless federal government shutdown. There’s also a decent concentration of veterans who may not be liberal but also find his feud with the late John McCain abhorrent. Not to mention the concentration of well educated voters especially in the northern parts of the state. I think he’ll have a hard time winning this state in 2020 — regardless of the shenanigans going on in Richmond.

[Bidenworth2020]

some of those numbers just seem obviously like BS. Seriously, only +7 in Arkansas? -4 in Virginia? lol k

[pbrower2a]

Virginia is a surprise from Morning Consult. I know little about the sampling.

[Thatkat04]

Morning Consult is online only so I usally just take their numbers with a grain of salt anyway.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult has been consistently awful polling Virginia and they have been since the 2016 election.

[ProudModerate2]

Net approval map from Morning Consult for March 2019

I do not have approve/disapprove numbers, so these are hardly comparable to approval and disapproval. A +5 net approval or a -5% disapproval means far more at a 52-47 split than at 47-42 split. This does not supplant my earlier maps.  I assume that DC is extremely hostile to Trump due to its demographics.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump/

maroon 20% or higher net  disapproval  158
red 11% to 20% net disapproval  75
pink 6% to 10% net disapproval 43
white 1% to 5% net disapproval 60
light blue tie to 5% net approval 97
blue 6% to 10% net approval 26
navy 11%+ net approval (I see no reason to color this in)

Although net disapproval is not as reliable a predictor of a Trump loss as is 100-disapproval, it is relevant.  I an astonished to see Pennsylvania in the third category, but a 7% negative edge is decisive unless the Democrats nominate someone with severe and obvious flaws. The white category, which I normally use for the zone of equal chance or a tie, gives a Democrat an edge even if it contains Virginia (4% is the usual margin of error). This category includes Florida and Ohio.

Indiana is a real shocker, as it looks on the fringe of contention. Then again, Obama did win Indiana in 2008. As a general  rule, a Republican needs to be winning Indiana by a double-digit margin to have a real chance of winning nationwide.

Hahaha, his approval is undeniably worse than that in Virginia.

The States in white are still (pretty much) a net disapproval.
So if the 2020 election went down with all the maroon, red, pink and white going for the Dem's, that would be a huge win.

PS: I foresee that the State that will be of most interest in watching in 2020, will be Arizona.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Massachusetts: Emerson, April 4-7, 761 RV

Approve 29
Disapprove 62

Biden 69, Trump 31
Sanders 64, Trump 36
Warren 63, Trump 37