Ohio Megathread

[ON Progressive]

Remember when Atlas was convinced this was a tossup? Some of the 2017 posts on this race aged horribly.

[BuckeyeNut]

Remember when Atlas was convinced this was a tossup? Some of the 2017 posts on this race aged horribly.

In fairness, 2017 posts assumed a much more competent opponent.

And Mandel wasn't even that strong in the first place.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Remember when Atlas was convinced this was a tossup? Some of the 2017 posts on this race aged horribly.

No, because that never happened

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I knew all along Sherrod Brown would win big.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/10/jim_renacci_issues_anonymous_s.html

Lol, Jim Renacci is the sole reason I hope hell is real. 

[BuckeyeNut]

In an ironic twist, Pelosi's House Majority PAC is making a $54k mail buy in OH-07. The irony is that Harbaugh was the first Democratic candidate to run against Pelosi this cycle.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

In an ironic twist, Pelosi's House Majority PAC is making a $54k mail buy in OH-07. The irony is that Harbaugh was the first Democratic candidate to run against Pelosi this cycle.

"Just win, baby."

Really would like to see some polling of the district. Is it usual for HMPAC to make a buy in a Likely R district, or do you think they are seeing good internals?

Also, I'm going to the debate next week, so I will do the usual pet candidate debate analysis here.

[BuckeyeNut]

HMPAC probably doesnt play in Likely R races all that often, but it is a relatively small buy. I’m dying for some polls from the House races outside of OH-01 (ex: OH-07, OH-10, OH-14) and am frankly shocked there hasn’t been public polling for the OH-12 rematch, which is somehow looking more competitive than OH-01 afterall.

[Ohioguy29]

Watching the OH-1 debate. It seems to consist completely of just nasty attacks. Aftab needs to get out of the defense zone, but man is it hard when your opponent is on stage accusing you of colluding with terrorists. He did manage to get out a good attack on Chabot about how he's under investigation by the FEC.

[Ohioguy29]

https://twitter.com/ChrisCinciBiz/status/1055240771849383936

[Ebsy]

Chabot has always been a nasty SOB.

[libertpaulian]

Watching the OH-1 debate. It seems to consist completely of just nasty attacks. Aftab needs to get out of the defense zone, but man is it hard when your opponent is on stage accusing you of colluding with terrorists.

...yet he's leading by 7 in the NYT poll right now?! F[inks]K OUTTA HERE with that.

[Ebsy]

The Upshot has had trouble polling districts where Democrats are reliant on black voters.

[Ohioguy29]

Watching the OH-1 debate. It seems to consist completely of just nasty attacks. Aftab needs to get out of the defense zone, but man is it hard when your opponent is on stage accusing you of colluding with terrorists.

...yet he's leading by 7 in the NYT poll right now?! F[inks]K OUTTA HERE with that.

Chabot won by 18 points in 2016, and Aftab has been facing some very bad headlines lately. That said, the NYT polls are underestimating him; I think they're underestimating Dem turnout here, people are HYPED to vote for Aftab. Of course, who knows how things will be after the elections commission hearing on November 1. Even if that goes badly I think he'll be within 5 points though.

[Breton Racer]

If Brown wins by more than 10%, I think he pulls Cordray and Pureval over the top with him. I know Ohio is a state where ticket splitting is still a thing but I don't see Brown winning by 15% and DeWine winning by 2% on the same night.

My prediction would be Brown wins by 13%, Cordray wins by 2% and Pureval sneaks by Chabot by 1-3% in a suprise.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

The Upshot has had trouble polling districts where Democrats are reliant on black voters any voter who isn't a pasty white.

[Ohioguy29]

The Upshot has had trouble polling districts where Democrats are reliant on black voters.

Details on that? In a district where 22% of voting age adults are black, this is a problem. Not that I've been taking these Upshot polls of OH-1 all that seriously.

[Ohioguy29]

https://twitter.com/ScottWartman/status/1055236876284628994

And Aftab's response:

https://twitter.com/AndrewBatesNC/status/1055239073441439744

[Ohioguy29]

Meanwhile in the Senate race...

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1055166491287543808

[ON Progressive]

Meanwhile in the Senate race...

https://twitter.com/AndrewJTobias/status/1055166491287543808

His campaign's just been a total dumpster fire and it's amazing.

[Ohioguy29]

If Brown wins by more than 10%, I think he pulls Cordray and Pureval over the top with him. I know Ohio is a state where ticket splitting is still a thing but I don't see Brown winning by 15% and DeWine winning by 2% on the same night.

My prediction would be Brown wins by 13%, Cordray wins by 2% and Pureval sneaks by Chabot by 1-3% in a suprise.

It would be fantastic if this happened. I will write Renacci a thank you letter if he drags down the rest of the ticket enough to give us the victories we need.

[Sherrod Brown Shill]

Pet candidate debate over analyzing incoming!

Just left the Harbaugh-Gibbs debate. Harbaugh spent most of the debate hammering Gibbs on pre-existing conditions while Gibbs gave statistics at about 200 MPH. I guess they where supposed to suggest the economy is doing good but there where some parts where I really couldn't understand him. Gibbs just isn't a great public speaker, which is understandable. The left wing of the audience was very rowdy throughout, which of course led to the climax of the night, when Gibbs told Harbaugh to "keep his constituents under control" (paraphrase) and Harbaugh responded with "They're your constituents too." Harbaugh also hit Gibbs on jokingly comparing his service in Congress to military service. Harbaugh was indirect at sometimes though, but his ability as a debater and Gibbs' inability as a public speaker should make this a no brainer who """won""" the debate.

Despite Harbaugh being a great guy, great candidate, and having a very good performance tonight, I still expect him to lose by high single digits. I really hope he dosen't stop in November though. If he was in say OH-16 then it would be a tossup, if Hagan was the R then maybe even lean or likely d at this point. He has a future in Columbus and I'm hoping even beyond.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Pet candidate debate over analyzing incoming!

Just left the Harbaugh-Gibbs debate. Harbaugh spent most of the debate hammering Gibbs on pre-existing conditions while Gibbs gave statistics at about 200 MPH. I guess they where supposed to suggest the economy is doing good but there where some parts where I really couldn't understand him. Gibbs just isn't a great public speaker, which is understandable. The left wing of the audience was very rowdy throughout, which of course led to the climax of the night, when Gibbs told Harbaugh to "keep his constituents under control" (paraphrase) and Harbaugh responded with "They're your constituents too." Harbaugh also hit Gibbs on jokingly comparing his service in Congress to military service. Harbaugh was indirect at sometimes though, but his ability as a debater and Gibbs' inability as a public speaker should make this a no brainer who """won""" the debate.

Despite Harbaugh being a great guy, great candidate, and having a very good performance tonight, I still expect him to lose by high single digits. I really hope he dosen't stop in November though. If he was in say OH-16 then it would be a tossup, if Hagan was the R then maybe even lean or likely d at this point. He has a future in Columbus and I'm hoping even beyond.

Why is Christina Hagan such a bad candidate?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Pet candidate debate over analyzing incoming!

Just left the Harbaugh-Gibbs debate. Harbaugh spent most of the debate hammering Gibbs on pre-existing conditions while Gibbs gave statistics at about 200 MPH. I guess they where supposed to suggest the economy is doing good but there where some parts where I really couldn't understand him. Gibbs just isn't a great public speaker, which is understandable. The left wing of the audience was very rowdy throughout, which of course led to the climax of the night, when Gibbs told Harbaugh to "keep his constituents under control" (paraphrase) and Harbaugh responded with "They're your constituents too." Harbaugh also hit Gibbs on jokingly comparing his service in Congress to military service. Harbaugh was indirect at sometimes though, but his ability as a debater and Gibbs' inability as a public speaker should make this a no brainer who """won""" the debate.

Despite Harbaugh being a great guy, great candidate, and having a very good performance tonight, I still expect him to lose by high single digits. I really hope he dosen't stop in November though. If he was in say OH-16 then it would be a tossup, if Hagan was the R then maybe even lean or likely d at this point. He has a future in Columbus and I'm hoping even beyond.

[BuckeyeNut]

I would love to see Harbaugh ride again, but I think he’s done after this, assuming he loses.