Ohio Megathread

[Florida Man for Crime]

Aftabs ads are really good.

[BuckeyeNut]

Much better (and more authentic) Harbaugh ad.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This ad clearly targeted at female voters. Is he trying to win my vote, or is he trying to win my heart?😩

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t3NWQDdQvqU

All of his ads seem to be off the charts on the charm index.

[Ohioguy29]

Even by political ad standards, this ad implying that Aftab wants to abolish ICE is incredibly dishonest

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=30&v=E3cfQTg6gyk

[BuckeyeNut]

The Cincinnati Enquirer seems to be very anti-Aftab.

It’s ... not? See 2016 coverage. They might still like Chabot more though.

[libertpaulian]

The Cincinnati Enquirer seems to be very anti-Aftab.

It’s ... not? See 2016 coverage. They might still like Chabot more though.

Apparently so.  A CLF internal has Chabot up by 7%.

[Ohioguy29]

The Cincinnati Enquirer seems to be very anti-Aftab.

It’s ... not? See 2016 coverage. They might still like Chabot more though.

Apparently so.  A CLF internal has Chabot up by 7%.

I think they were talking about the editorial bias of the Enquirer, not his popularity in the district

Regardless, I'm taking CLF internals with several big grains of salt. I'd love to have a poll here that isn't an internal; right now we haven't had any.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ben + Jerry's is naming an ice cream flavor after Aftab.

Also, Ohioguy, can you change the title and make this a general "Ohio House Thread"?

[Ohioguy29]

Ben + Jerry's is naming an ice cream flavor after Aftab.

Also, Ohioguy, can you change the title and make this a general "Ohio House Thread"?

I will if you PM me telling me how to change the title.

[Ohioguy29]

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/26/aftabs-secret-poll-obtained-enquirer/1430234002/

If the Aftab campaign's stupidity costs us this election, I will be deeply irritated.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/26/aftabs-secret-poll-obtained-enquirer/1430234002/

If the Aftab campaign's stupidity costs us this election, I will be deeply irritated.

This is far too inside-baseball for anybody to care about.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ben + Jerry's is naming an ice cream flavor after Aftab.

Also, Ohioguy, can you change the title and make this a general "Ohio House Thread"?

I will if you PM me telling me how to change the title.

Since there may be others who don't know: go to your original post in the thread, click the "modify" button, change the title, and then click Save.

[Ohioguy29]

Ben + Jerry's is naming an ice cream flavor after Aftab.

Also, Ohioguy, can you change the title and make this a general "Ohio House Thread"?

I will if you PM me telling me how to change the title.

Since there may be others who don't know: go to your original post in the thread, click the "modify" button, change the title, and then click Save.

Thanks!

[Ohioguy29]

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/2018/09/26/aftabs-secret-poll-obtained-enquirer/1430234002/

If the Aftab campaign's stupidity costs us this election, I will be deeply irritated.

This is far too inside-baseball for anybody to care about.

This isn't inside baseball, this is one of the main attacks the GOP has been using against Aftab. People may not understand details, but they've seen plenty of nasty ads about Aftab's "very real campaign finance violations" and how he "could be facing jailtime" accompanied by images of his face behind bars.

Hillary's emails would've struck me as inside baseball that nobody understands too, but if you yell "it's bad!" and just keep repeating your message it can work. Though of course, Aftab is a better candidate than Hillary. If this district wasn't so red I wouldn't even be worried. Unfortunately it is quite red.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

The Enquirer is determined, if nothing else.

[BuckeyeNut]

Eh, this is a legitimate ethics issue, even if ultimately minor. Unfortunately, Democrats have to play against an ethical-double standard in much of the country, including Cincinnati, and Aftab should have known better.

[libertpaulian]

Just like the FBI investigation was supposed to sink Gillum, amirite?

[Ohioguy29]

Eh, this is a legitimate ethics issue, even if ultimately minor. Unfortunately, Democrats have to play against an ethical-double standard in much of the country, including Cincinnati, and Aftab should have known better.

Yep. Chabot has his own mild ethical issue but it barely has any traction. Largely because it's not as new, although Pillich filed a federal elections complaint not too long ago. I feel like the Aftab campaign should use this in attack ads.

Part of why there's an ethical double standard is that Democrats aren't as good at messaging as Republicans. Republicans have a simple message and they just repeat it endlessly over and over, and this is the right way to do it. I think Aftab has been doing this well, that just isn't a line of attack he's used (the message on Chabot has been "he's bad on healthcare and the tax bill" and "he's a tired old politician at a time when we need change; drain the swamp!") He was right to start out with mostly positive ads and I think that should still be his focus, but is it time to get nastier? I think so.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Ehh, this isn’t gonna make much of a difference.  Tilt D —> Tilt D

[BuckeyeNut]

Ehh, this isn’t gonna make much of a difference.  Tilt D —> Tilt D

You've reminded me I need to update my House predictions.

I agree OH-01 is a Tilt D race now. I also need to move OH-12 back down to Lean R from Likely R. And sadly, I think, it's time to move OH-07 back up to Likely R from Lean R. Even though OH-07 and OH-14 have the same DPI, voters in the Cleveland and Akron suburbs, as well as Lake County, are truly a different breed than those in, say, Canton.

I also think OH-10 might be down to Likely R from Very Likely R.

[Ohioguy29]

NYT poll of OH-1 happening now! I hope I get called.

[Ohioguy29]

If Chabot's 8 point lead in the NYTimes poll holds, are y'all still gonna be saying this is "Tilt D?" Why or why not?

[libertpaulian]

If Chabot's 8 point lead in the NYTimes poll holds, are y'all still gonna be saying this is "Tilt D?" Why or why not?

Why is Aftab's ethics story sticking, yet Gillum's FBI story not?

[IceSpear]

If Chabot's 8 point lead in the NYTimes poll holds, are y'all still gonna be saying this is "Tilt D?" Why or why not?

Why is Aftab's ethics story sticking, yet Gillum's FBI story not?

Presumably because Chabot was/is slamming him in countless ads about it while DeSantis was busy running for president.

[Ohioguy29]

If Chabot's 8 point lead in the NYTimes poll holds, are y'all still gonna be saying this is "Tilt D?" Why or why not?

Why is Aftab's ethics story sticking, yet Gillum's FBI story not?

Presumably because Chabot was/is slamming him in countless ads about it while DeSantis was busy running for president.

Precisely. On its own, the Aftab campaign finance blunder is nothing much. When Paul Ryan's superpac has been running ads about it nonstop and implying it's something major, and then a bunch of scary looking headlines come out, it sticks.