GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Blair]

Have Stacey Abrams or any other big GA Democrats done much lifting for Warnock?

As important as TV ads surely some zoom events or fundraisers with national democrats would help a bit?

[Pollster]

I just don't understand why he waited so long. The ad is simple, homey and makes him out to be a compassionate moderate. If he'd ran it in April the field would clear. Literally all he had to do was introduce himself, why now?

He waited until all of the primaries and runoffs were resolved before diverting voters' attention to an election that is occurring later.

Not directed at anybody here in particular, but Atlas (and election twitter) often forgets that tens of millions of voters don't engage with politics and elections that emphatically until the final lead-up, and sometimes not even then. Asking voters to focus on this many races and candidates at once is a tall order, and not a wholly fair request when a large swath are working people (often parents) whose time and attention is already stretched thin.

Also worth noting that many competitive races are impacted by who the candidate shares the ballot with. Another reason for Warnock to wait until all primaries are resolved.

[LabourJersey]

I just don't understand why he waited so long. The ad is simple, homey and makes him out to be a compassionate moderate. If he'd ran it in April the field would clear. Literally all he had to do was introduce himself, why now?

He waited until all of the primaries and runoffs were resolved before diverting voters' attention to an election that is occurring later.

Not directed at anybody here in particular, but Atlas (and election twitter) often forgets that tens of millions of voters don't engage with politics and elections that emphatically until the final lead-up, and sometimes not even then. Asking voters to focus on this many races and candidates at once is a tall order, and not a wholly fair request when a large swath are working people (often parents) whose time and attention is already stretched thin.

Also worth noting that many competitive races are impacted by who the candidate shares the ballot with. Another reason for Warnock to wait until all primaries are resolved.

The GA regular primary was two months ago.

Two months ago Atlanta and every other major city were protesting for greater racial justice.

Warnock had an incredible chance to introduce himself to the state at a moment when people were the most receptive to hearing from a man with his resume and his views.

Not to say that the desire for racial justice is diminished now, but waiting until now to go on the air was a poor choice

[Pollster]

I just don't understand why he waited so long. The ad is simple, homey and makes him out to be a compassionate moderate. If he'd ran it in April the field would clear. Literally all he had to do was introduce himself, why now?

He waited until all of the primaries and runoffs were resolved before diverting voters' attention to an election that is occurring later.

Not directed at anybody here in particular, but Atlas (and election twitter) often forgets that tens of millions of voters don't engage with politics and elections that emphatically until the final lead-up, and sometimes not even then. Asking voters to focus on this many races and candidates at once is a tall order, and not a wholly fair request when a large swath are working people (often parents) whose time and attention is already stretched thin.

Also worth noting that many competitive races are impacted by who the candidate shares the ballot with. Another reason for Warnock to wait until all primaries are resolved.

The GA regular primary was two months ago.

Two months ago Atlanta and every other major city were protesting for greater racial justice.

Warnock had an incredible chance to introduce himself to the state at a moment when people were the most receptive to hearing from a man with his resume and his views.

Not to say that the desire for racial justice is diminished now, but waiting until now to go on the air was a poor choice

And runoffs all across the state were last week. The entire ticket matters.

I question how utilizing the BLM resurgence as a visibility opportunity would have played, particularly since Warnock's candidacy was not born from the grassroots. The political benefit from the movement for GA Dems has largely been how poorly Loeffler has handled it, anyway.

[wbrocks67]

Also, what was Warnock supposed to do though? People speak in platitudes and just say, "he shouldn't of been out there~~!!!!!!" but what does that actually mean? I don't think Warnock could've done anything in that time period that really would've moved the needle for him one way or the other.

People I think get way too inside with these things and like Pollster said, a lot of people are just tuning into the race now.

[Oryxslayer]

Warnock appears in the DNC's tribute to John Lewis. It appears that he has decided to use the conventions as his 'start' date, since it might start directing donors towards his campaign. There were probably better moments in the past month, but this one was plannable in advance. He should have followed the 'best laid plans of mice and men' proverb, but at least Warnock is making himself known now.

[Adam Griffin]

Stacey Abrams did it right. He's doing it wrong. Can y'all imagine what would have happened if she had waited until 2.5 months before Election Day to start doing anything of consequence with a presidential-sized electorate? For all the instances of voter suppression from 2018, some of y'all are acting like one of the key Democratic campaigns being MIA on a mass scale until this week is a net-positive (especially the one that's supposed to be uniquely-equipped at mobilizing black voters)? Give me a break.

A lot of these comments are hack excuse-making or high-info mentality trying to masquerade as sage advice that explains low-info mentality. GA is disproportionately low-info and low-propensity, which is why you need as much time before the election to organize and make yourself known (especially if you're running in a de-facto primary). Likewise, being active wouldn't "confuse" anybody: what would voters in the primary have done? Wrote in Warnock in the Ossoff race and vice-versa? C'mon. Ossoff certainly didn't d[inks]k around to make himself known, and he is the better-known of the two. And I guarantee you nobody who was going to vote in an August runoff would've been confused by one more candidate running ads.

Most elections in the state have more than one high-profile contender on the ballot simultaneously, whether it be Senate-Governor (plus 10 others) or Senate-President. If Georgians can handle voting in two separate primary elections + an additional runoff, then I think we can handle two Senate candidates campaigning concurrently. The candidates who have done the best here over the past 12 years (Obama, Martin, Carter, Nunn, Abrams) all had one thing in common: they started their campaigns early and aggressively. The ones who didn't (Barksdale, Thurmond, most downballot statewide candidates) bombed. Hell, less than two weeks from today 12 years ago was when Obama pulled out of GA (after being here for the better part of a year) because they believed it was a lost cause.

[Adam Griffin]

Basically and as I've said before, the only non-silly justification for this is they've just been hoarding cash and banking on the runoff (personally I don't think Warnock would have trouble raising gobs of cash for the runoff post-11/3, but whatever)...which is an OK strategy given the circumstances (with the other 2 more-prominent Ds not dropping apparently) but not at all ideal given how things are likely to play out. And like I said many months ago, this is why everybody wanted to crowd into the Perdue race and face each other there - because a contested jungle primary without consolidation followed by a runoff slaughters your chances and can make an otherwise less-likely victory scenario seem like the more-likely victory scenario.

However and with a Libertarian in the race/a likely close contest, the odds for a Perdue-Ossoff runoff aren't necessarily that low either...

[Rookie Yinzer]

Have Stacey Abrams or any other big GA Democrats done much lifting for Warnock?

As important as TV ads surely some zoom events or fundraisers with national democrats would help a bit?

Stacey has been doing plenty behind the scenes. This race has 20 people on the ballot, it's going to a run off. Warnock is making a play for a top two spot and going all in for the run off. All the handwringing in this thread is just that.

Nobody could point Lindy Miller out in a lineup but she got 48 percent in a run off in 2018. I don't know why folks are losing their sh**t about a candidate who will have millions + a sh!t ton of media attention not doing enough according to their schedule.

[Pollster]

A lot of these comments are hack excuse-making or high-info mentality trying to masquerade as sage advice that explains low-info mentality. GA is disproportionately low-info and low-propensity, which is why you need as much time before the election to organize and make yourself known (especially if you're running in a de-facto primary). Likewise, being active wouldn't "confuse" anybody: what would voters in the primary have done? Wrote in Warnock in the Ossoff race and vice-versa? C'mon. Ossoff certainly didn't d[inks]k around to make himself known, and he is the better-known of the two. And I guarantee you nobody who was going to vote in an August runoff would've been confused by one more candidate running ads.

No, this is all incorrect. The political appetite in this country is not limitless. Many voters become annoyed with constant politicking, pandering, and the seeming inescapability of it. Confusion is not the point, its sheer capacity. This isn't specific to politics - its seen in sports marketing, film promotion, brand management, and entertainment industry awards campaigns. In all of these instances, those most invested in the process are least likely to be aware of where the line is.

When a state has so many high-profile, competitive, and well-funded races at once - one of which contains four candidates running statewide that all have access to a significant amount of money - the availability of paid media and communication also decreases. TV networks and radio stations don't have unlimited ad space (ask Sean Parnell or Colin van Ostern about this), consulting firms for direct mail, fundraising, advertising, polling, and digital don't have unlimited capacity. Warnock using up resources like this, for an election over two months away where I agree his only goal is probably to make a runoff and where he already benefits from institutional support, would be a major hinderance to down-ballot candidates (many of whom Warnock will need to work with on GOTV) whose elections are sooner. It has nothing to do with voters getting confused.

I understand many on this board wanted Warnock to be like Stacey Abrams 2018, but Abrams was in a political cycle where she had much more available space in the political conversation and was leading the statewide ticket. And frankly, Warnock is not a grassroots movement candidate. He entered the race at the urging of party leadership and immediately consolidated institutional backing and support. It's not unreasonable for him to be crafting a campaign in which he is one part of the GA Dem team.

[NewYorkExpress]

Crossposting from the other Georgia Senate thread:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/georgia-secretary-state-alleges-1000-cases-double-voting/story?id=72877190

Georgia's top election official said Tuesday that there were up to 1,000 potential instances of voters casting two ballots -- one by absentee ballot and one in person on election day -- across about 100 counties during the June presidential and statewide primaries and the August runoff elections.

"Let me be clear: It is a felony to double vote in Georgia, and we prosecute. ... A double voter knows exactly what they're doing, diluting the votes of each and every voter ... that follows the law. Those that make the choice to game the system are breaking the law, and as secretary of state, I will not tolerate it," Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, said, adding that his office will work to prevent this from happening in November, but not detailing exactly how he plans to do that.



Raffensperger said that his office will be turning the suspected cases over to the state attorney general, local district attorneys and also federal prosecuting attorneys, should they want to take on these cases. He called double voting a "serious felony," noting that if convicted, voters who cast two ballots face a minimum sentence of one year in prison, and a maximum sentence of 10 years in prison, plus up to a $100,000 fine.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I got a text today inviting me to vote in a poll where the choices were Collins, Loeffler, and Not Sure.

[Astatine]

I got a text today inviting me to vote in a poll where the choices were Collins, Loeffler, and Not Sure.

Looking forward to Senator N. Sure (I-GA) assuming office in January, I wonder with which party he will caucus.

[brucejoel99]

I got a text today inviting me to vote in a poll where the choices were Collins, Loeffler, and Not Sure.

Looking forward to Senator N. Sure (I-GA) assuming office in January, I wonder with which party he will caucus.

He's not sure yet.

[Pollster]

Collins rolled out a huge swath of endorsements earlier this week, including from State House Speaker David Ralston and from multiple state lawmakers who were previously supporting Loeffler.

[Skye]

New Loeffler ad: "More conservative than Attila the Hun"

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1308102428240359424

Note that, for some reason, this isn't an attack ad.

[7,052,770]

So just looking through the numbers, Loeffler + Collins seems to be polling higher than Perdue. Is some kind of random noise, or are there some Ossoff-Loefller voters out there for some reason? Why is anyone splitting their ticket at all, much less in this direction?

[Landslide Lyndon]

New Loeffler ad: "More conservative than Attila the Hun"

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1308102428240359424

Note that, for some reason, this isn't an attack ad.

Remember when her appointment would nail down those wobbly educated suburbanites?
Good times.

[Lognog]

New Loeffler ad: "More conservative than Attila the Hun"

https://twitter.com/JacobRubashkin/status/1308102428240359424

Note that, for some reason, this isn't an attack ad.

So people whose careers are to construct political ads saw this and were like "yeah that's what we need"

blows my god damn mind

[Indy Texas]

Why do I have a feeling this happened because everyone on the campaign just thought of the "Let's get down to business and defeat the Huns" song from Mulan and didn't bother checking into the actual history?

https://twitter.com/ObsoleteDogma/status/1308142954406608897?s=20

[Oryxslayer]

I personally find it weird to bring up Attila since America, especially the present generation of Conservatives, love to compare America to Rome and fetishize that side of history.

[here2view]

So just looking through the numbers, Loeffler + Collins seems to be polling higher than Perdue. Is some kind of random noise, or are there some Ossoff-Loefller voters out there for some reason? Why is anyone splitting their ticket at all, much less in this direction?

I have a friend who lives in Georgia and this is how he's voting (in addition to Libertarian for president)

[Logical]

The last person of consequence to compare themselves favorably to Atilla the Hun was the German Kaiser. It did not end well for him.

[Stuart98]

So just looking through the numbers, Loeffler + Collins seems to be polling higher than Perdue. Is some kind of random noise, or are there some Ossoff-Loefller voters out there for some reason? Why is anyone splitting their ticket at all, much less in this direction?

I have a friend who lives in Georgia and this is how he's voting (in addition to Libertarian for president)

...but why?

[Canis]

So just looking through the numbers, Loeffler + Collins seems to be polling higher than Perdue. Is some kind of random noise, or are there some Ossoff-Loefller voters out there for some reason? Why is anyone splitting their ticket at all, much less in this direction?

I have a friend who lives in Georgia and this is how he's voting (in addition to Libertarian for president)

...but why?

Who knows if you ever want to get a job as a poll worker and you will see voters split their ballot all kinds of ways that seemingly make no sense Their were thousands of Rick Scott/Andrew Gillum and Bill Nelson/Ron Desantis voters in 2018 in Florida people split their ballots all kinds of ways for different reasons.