Predict the Democratic Primaries Round 2: Oklahoma

[Xing]

Biden
Warren

IA NH NV SC AL AS AR CA CO DA ME MA MN NC

The previous polls are still open, so feel free to vote on them if you haven't already. You can also always go back and change your vote, if you’d like. Special thanks to Hades for the map of the territories!

Oklahoma should be interesting. While I do agree that home state advantages are becoming less important, I think that they do have more of an impact in primaries than general elections, so I could see Warren getting a boost here. I'd rate it Toss-Up/Tilt Warren though, since it seems like a decent state for Biden as well. I also wonder if it'll buck the trend of siding with the eventual loser of the primaries.

[Torrain]

Growing up poor in Oklahoma is a key part of Warren's story, and if she can cut a decent tv advert about it between now and Super Tuesday, I could see her embracing the state as a part of her wider narrative.

Basically, if she can reinforce her ties to the state, I think she could have a decent shot in the primary.

[krb08]

Warren was born and raised in OK, Sanders won it by a decent margin in 2016 so it's comfortable not voting for neoliberals, I think it'll go for Warren.

[ElectionsGuy]

It depends on how many DINOs vote in the Dem primary. If the trend we're seeing in Louisiana continues, I bet the Dem primary turnout will go down in 2020 from 2016, and as a result, Warren will do better. I think DINOs will be much more receptive to Biden or Sanders than Warren. A complete toss-up, perhaps a 3 way.

[Grassroots]

Warren living there a long time ago isn't going to flip this solid Biden state.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

It depends on how many DINOs vote in the Dem primary. If the trend we're seeing in Louisiana continues, I bet the Dem primary turnout will go down in 2020 from 2016, and as a result, Warren will do better. I think DINOs will be much more receptive to Biden or Sanders than Warren. A complete toss-up, perhaps a 3 way.

Maybe we'll get to see a completely strange map as in 2004.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Yang

[Suburbia]

Warren.