2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Apparently Mr. Daggett's matching funds are being held hostage because he doesn't have a running mate:

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[Rowan]

Is Jon Corzine thinking about listening to George Norcross and dropping his bid for re-election to a second term?  Former Morris County Prosecutor and gubernatorial candidate Michael Murphy says he spoke to the governor today and asked him that question.  Corzine's response: "No ing way.

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/31742/corzine-says-hes-not-getting-out-editors-note-expletive-not-deleted-read-your-own-risk

[Zarn]

Corzine picks Weinberg.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/corzine_picks_sen_loretta_wein.html

I'm now voting for Corzine. So at least he has that going for him. I'm pretty unabashed in my idolization of Loretta Weinberg.

I wouldn't be surprised if you were the only person in the state whose vote has changed because of this.

You should be supporting the best politician in the whole goddamned country for Lt. Gov. of New Jersey, too

Unfortunately, this means I actually care about this race now even though my candidate will probably lose.

So you want a tough anti-establishment person to be the lapdog of Corzine, in order to beat Christie.. someone not so friendly with the establishment?

Edit: please, don't take this as me trying to call you out. I'm just trying to probe.

[Verily]

Corzine picks Weinberg.

http://www.nj.com/news/index.ssf/2009/07/corzine_picks_sen_loretta_wein.html

I'm now voting for Corzine. So at least he has that going for him. I'm pretty unabashed in my idolization of Loretta Weinberg.

I wouldn't be surprised if you were the only person in the state whose vote has changed because of this.

You should be supporting the best politician in the whole goddamned country for Lt. Gov. of New Jersey, too

Unfortunately, this means I actually care about this race now even though my candidate will probably lose.

So you want a tough anti-establishment person to be the lapdog of Corzine, in order to beat Christie.. someone not so friendly with the establishment?

Edit: please, don't take this as me trying to call you out. I'm just trying to probe.

The thing is, Corzine is not particularly cozy with the establishment, either. For Republicans, of course, he's a Democrat, so it doesn't matter. But I would think people who don't automatically oppose him would be able to see that he clashes with the established forces far more often than he plays ball with them.

His willingness to piss off the Bergen machine by choosing Weinberg shows that as much as anything. I doubt Buono was on bad terms with the MidCDO.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I do agree with you, as I said, that Corzine gets overplayed as an establishment figure.  That being said he's still an awful governor

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Biden has canceled a visit to NJ, supposedly in light of the recent corruption sting. (Timing is everything.)

More significant to Corzine: PoliticsNJ is reporting that the locally influential State Sen. Brian Stack (D-Hudson) is resisting calls to publicly back Corzine. Combine this with several high-profile arrests in Hudson County (and Corzine's sacking of the locally influential Joe Doria), and you have a recipe for a turnout disaster in one of the states most reliably Democratic counties.

Corzine's train has come off the rails.  Ugly.

[Mr.Phips]

I predict that Corzine will drop out of the race in September if he doesnt make any progress in polls. 

[Tender Branson]

PPP's New Jersey poll today will show that only 64% of Democrats back Corzine.

You know what that means: Something like 54-38 overall ...

[Ronnie]

PPP's New Jersey poll today will show that only 64% of Democrats back Corzine.

You know what that means: Something like 54-38 overall ...

Yum!

[CARLHAYDEN]

I predict that Corzine will drop out of the race in September if he doesnt make any progress in polls. 

Ah, the old Robert Torecelli gambit.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Daggett chose his running mate, some college professor named Frank Esposito: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_J._Esposito

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

PPP's New Jersey poll today will show that only 64% of Democrats back Corzine.

You know what that means: Something like 54-38 overall ...

It's 50–36, so we're up to a 14-point Christie lead.

Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Solid, Chris Christie just Twittered about answering RowanBrandon's question.  Nice job RB!

[Ronnie]

PPP's New Jersey poll today will show that only 64% of Democrats back Corzine.

You know what that means: Something like 54-38 overall ...

It's 50–36, so we're up to a 14-point Christie lead.

Christie has a 54-26 lead among independents.

Pretty good lead.

I wonder how close it will get.  The county map will be a joke if Christie actually wins by 14 points.

[Rowan]

Solid, Chris Christie just Twittered about answering RowanBrandon's question.  Nice job RB!

Haha, I was so excited when I saw that!

[Rowan]

Also Christie leads 50-33 among Hispanics. If he gets 50% of Hispanics, Corzine has NO shot.

[Zarn]

Also Christie leads 50-33 among Hispanics. If he gets 50% of Hispanics, Corzine has NO shot.

Well, so far, he has this Hispanic vote. We'll see.

[Ronnie]

Doesn't it seem fishy that Christie is doing better with Hispanics than he is doing overall statewide?

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also Christie leads 50-33 among Hispanics. If he gets 50% of Hispanics, Corzine has NO shot.

That'd make for interesting numbers in Hudson, that's for sure.

[cinyc]

Doesn't it seem fishy that Christie is doing better with Hispanics than he is doing overall statewide?

Small subgroups have large MOEs.  Hispanics were 9% of the 552 people PPP polled - that's about 50 people.  The MOE for a poll with a sample of 50 people is +/-13.86 for any reasonably sized population.

Do the math.  Christie could be losing among Hispanics 47-36 and it would still be within the MOE.

[Eraserhead]

So Corzine really might lose after all. Pretty weird.

[Tender Branson]

I think Christie will win by 57-40 in the end. It will become more evident in the coming months.

But I´ve already said months ago that Corzine is fu**ed.

[cinyc]

Also Christie leads 50-33 among Hispanics. If he gets 50% of Hispanics, Corzine has NO shot.

That'd make for interesting numbers in Hudson, that's for sure.

The poll also broke down respondents by area code, for what it's worth (subsamples will be small).  Corzine leads in the 201/551 (Bergen, Hudson) 47-38 and loses in every other area code.  I don't think Christie's leading in Hudson County, regardless of the Hispanic subsample.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Also Christie leads 50-33 among Hispanics. If he gets 50% of Hispanics, Corzine has NO shot.

That'd make for interesting numbers in Hudson, that's for sure.

The poll also broke down respondents by area code, for what it's worth (subsamples will be small).  Corzine leads in the 201/551 (Bergen, Hudson) 47-38 and loses in every other area code.  I don't think Christie's leading in Hudson County, regardless of the Hispanic subsample.

I don't think Christie's leading in Hudson either, but I still want to see how the county winds up voting. The true story will probably be in Corzine's vote margin, and not in the percentages.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Anyone want to make predictions on what a county map would look like if Christie wins by 15?

I'm thinking Corzine manages little beyond Hudson, Essex, and Camden possibly losing Cape May and Atlantic