Canadian by-elections, 2015

[Boston Bread]

QS sliding, but now it looks like PQ could take SHSA???

[Hatman 🍁]

Radio-Canada has called all the races except Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne.

Beauce-Sud (119/169)
PLQ: 51%
CAQ: 32%
PQ: 8%

Fabre (63/158)
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 28%
CAQ: 14%
QS: 6%

Rene-Levesque (100/121)
PQ: 49%
PLQ: 39%
CAQ: 6%
QS: 5%

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne (94/193)
PLQ: 37%
PQ: 31%
QS: 21%
CAQ: 6%

[Vosem]

Since SHSA was created in 1994, it has always been a single-digit Liberal victory over the PQ except in the large victories of 2003 and 2014. By Canadian standards, it seems to be a pretty inelastic place, and "single-digit Liberal victory over the PQ" is what you're supposed to expect here. A PQ victory (which I doubt, but is still possible) here would indicate that the PQ is definitely forming government in Quebec, and possibly a majority government.

[Hatman 🍁]

The super low turnout there I think is more of a factor (only 24% right now)

[Boston Bread]

Those single digit QLP victories were I presume against a more or less unified sovereigntist vote under PQ. If QS+PQ wind up getting >50% as they are currently are, or even if they manage to combine for more than QLP, it would be significant.

[Vosem]

Those single digit QLP victories were I presume against a more or less unified sovereigntist vote under PQ. If QS+PQ wind up getting >50% as they are currently are, or even if they manage to combine for more than QLP, it would be significant.

The ADQ and CAQ took from both sovereigntists and federalists, so it can be difficult to say. (Like elsewhere in Quebec, both the PQ and QLP have been trending downhill here since the end of the 2-party era in Quebec). PQ+QS>QLP was the case in 2012, though never before and not in 2014 (when QLP>50% on its own). SHSA was 53-47 "Non" in 1995, so it's certainly winnable for a sovereigntist party, even if that has not been done.

[Hatman 🍁]

The riding went federally BQ in 2006 and 2008 as well don't forget.

[Citizen Hats]

Two byelections in British Columbia yet to be called. They must be called by end of January, I believe

Vancouver--Mount Pleasant - the last stronghold of Canadian Socialism and one of the poorest areas in the country.  Also a few blocks from where I live.  The byelection was triggered by Jenny Kwan's "trip to ride the rides in Ottawa," in the words of Christy Clark

First place will probably be Melanie Mark, NDP, a youngish Nisga activist who works with the office of Children and Families.  Second place will plausibly be Peter Fry, Green, son of Hedy Fry, a prominent community activist from Strathcona who ran for the municipal Greens last year.  To my knowledge, the Liberals do not yet have a candidate, though 2001 Candidate and former Musqueam Chief Gail Sparrow has considered running.

The other is Coquitlam--Burke Mountain, where Liberal Doug Horne resigned to take up the Conservative nomination for Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, where he was defeated by the Federal Liberals.  I don't know if anyone has been nominated here. 

[lilTommy]

Two byelections in British Columbia yet to be called. They must be called by end of January, I believe

Vancouver--Mount Pleasant - the last stronghold of Canadian Socialism and one of the poorest areas in the country.  Also a few blocks from where I live.  The byelection was triggered by Jenny Kwan's "trip to ride the rides in Ottawa," in the words of Christy Clark

First place will probably be Melanie Mark, NDP, a youngish Nisga activist who works with the office of Children and Families.  Second place will plausibly be Peter Fry, Green, son of Hedy Fry, a prominent community activist from Strathcona who ran for the municipal Greens last year.  To my knowledge, the Liberals do not yet have a candidate, though 2001 Candidate and former Musqueam Chief Gail Sparrow has considered running.

The other is Coquitlam--Burke Mountain, where Liberal Doug Horne resigned to take up the Conservative nomination for Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, where he was defeated by the Federal Liberals.  I don't know if anyone has been nominated here. 

I Think Coquitlam-Burke Mountain will be the interesting one, since Van-Mount Pleasant would go NDP if they ran a sign post.
The NDP have held that area while in government, and the NDP have won over more "conservative" riding's in by-elections like Port Moody-Coquitlam and Chilliwack-Hope. in 2013 the vote increased for the NDP vs 2009 while the party lost seats across the province, I feel there is an overall trend in this riding. This riding encompasses the more conservative parts of the city from what i can gather BUT as we saw with the Federal election the suburbs here voted for the Change parties (Liberals and then NDP) Recent polling I saw
http://www.insightswest.com/news/education-and-accountability-among-worst-files-for-bc-government/
from May had the NDP at 43% vs the Liberals at 37% and that was before this scandal. I'm waiting to see who the parties nominate but with the BCNDP just finishing their convention and rather confident now, this will be their target and can to some degree use resources they might have otherwise used in VMP if that riding were more competitive. Maybe even say at this point lean-NDP.

[lilTommy]

Radio-Canada has called all the races except Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne.

Beauce-Sud (119/169)
PLQ: 51%
CAQ: 32%
PQ: 8%

Fabre (63/158)
PLQ: 46%
PQ: 28%
CAQ: 14%
QS: 6%

Rene-Levesque (100/121)
PQ: 49%
PLQ: 39%
CAQ: 6%
QS: 5%

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne (94/193)
PLQ: 37%
PQ: 31%
QS: 21%
CAQ: 6%

Final:

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne
PLQ: 38.64%
PQ: 29.89%
QS: 20.73% (beyond good result for them, almost double their best result here of 11%)
CAQ: 5.2%

Rene-Levesque
PQ: 48.97%
PLQ: 38.99%
CAQ: 5.56%
QS: 4.88%

Beauce-Sud (119/169)
PLQ: 55.9%
CAQ: 29.85%
PQ: 6.87%

Fabre (63/158)
PLQ: 43.97%
PQ: 28.63%
CAQ: 14.62%
QS: 6.45%

[Hatman 🍁]

Liberal vote went up in "competitive" races, went down in "non competitive races". The result was that in one of those non competitive races (SHSA) ended up being closer than the competitive ones. The "competitive" races had respectable turnout (in the 40s) while the other two were a disaster in turnout (20s)

[DL]

Final:

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne
PLQ: 38.64%
PQ: 29.89%
QS: 20.73% (beyond good result for them, almost double their best result here of 11%)
CAQ: 5.2%

I think this SHSA result could have some interesting long-term implications. Quebec Solidaire has already got three seats in Montreal and its no secret that the PQ under a repulsive Berlusconi-type rightwing leader like Peladeau is now a very very hard sell in places like Montreal. QS could successfully target a couple of PQ seats in areas that went NDP federallly such as Rosemont, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Bourget etc...and pretty soon the PQ will be completely run off of the island of Montreal!

[Hatman 🍁]

Let's not forget that turnout was 24%, so let's not look too much into the results. Clearly QS did run a good campaign, as they retained most of their voters from 2012. But it's clear a lot of Liberals stayed home.

[lilTommy]

Final:

Saint-Henri--Sainte-Anne
PLQ: 38.64%
PQ: 29.89%
QS: 20.73% (beyond good result for them, almost double their best result here of 11%)
CAQ: 5.2%

I think this SHSA result could have some interesting long-term implications. Quebec Solidaire has already got three seats in Montreal and its no secret that the PQ under a repulsive Berlusconi-type rightwing leader like Peladeau is now a very very hard sell in places like Montreal. QS could successfully target a couple of PQ seats in areas that went NDP federallly such as Rosemont, Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, Bourget etc...and pretty soon the PQ will be completely run off of the island of Montreal!

next election, with Quebec's-Berlusconi at the helm the PQ is likely to lose all those mentioned!... This has been QS's path to victory since 2008, slowly eat at PQs left-urban vote. Mercier then Gouin, and then SMSJ, all wins off of the PQ, one seat each election. I think they wrongly focused on Laurier-Dorion, they did come in second but not a close one. Hochelaga-Maisonneuve where they were only 7 points behind the PQ should be their next focus and then Laurier-Dorion and Rosemont, likely to win Hochelaga-Maissonneuve next.
Hatman has a point about voter turnout affecting the results, BUT I can see QS surpass the PQ as second place in SHSA next time.

[DL]

If Quebec Solidaire wants to have any chance in a riding like Laurier-Dorion, maybe its about time they dropped their support for sovereignty and just focused on being a leftwing party fighting for social justice. Lets face it - separatism in Quebec has become a very "passe" issue and is now morphed into a rightwing xenophobic cause that is wrapped up in islamophobia. QS's vestigial adherence to separatism is holding them back from becoming any kind of a real force in Quebec politics. The people who are still hard core dyed in the wool separatist (and they are dying out) are the people who will vote for Peladeau no matter what.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Whatever happened to the NDP's attempt to from a provincial party in Quebec?

[Hatman 🍁]

If Quebec Solidaire wants to have any chance in a riding like Laurier-Dorion, maybe its about time they dropped their support for sovereignty and just focused on being a leftwing party fighting for social justice. Lets face it - separatism in Quebec has become a very "passe" issue and is now morphed into a rightwing xenophobic cause that is wrapped up in islamophobia. QS's vestigial adherence to separatism is holding them back from becoming any kind of a real force in Quebec politics. The people who are still hard core dyed in the wool separatist (and they are dying out) are the people who will vote for Peladeau no matter what.

Not sure if that would fly within their party of course, but I imagine a lot of federalists vote QS anyways. There's no other good fit for leftist federalists in Quebec. 

[VPH]

If Quebec Solidaire wants to have any chance in a riding like Laurier-Dorion, maybe its about time they dropped their support for sovereignty and just focused on being a leftwing party fighting for social justice. Lets face it - separatism in Quebec has become a very "passe" issue and is now morphed into a rightwing xenophobic cause that is wrapped up in islamophobia. QS's vestigial adherence to separatism is holding them back from becoming any kind of a real force in Quebec politics. The people who are still hard core dyed in the wool separatist (and they are dying out) are the people who will vote for Peladeau no matter what.

I'd support QS if not for their dumb sep stance.

[BundouYMB]

If Quebec Solidaire wants to have any chance in a riding like Laurier-Dorion, maybe its about time they dropped their support for sovereignty and just focused on being a leftwing party fighting for social justice. Lets face it - separatism in Quebec has become a very "passe" issue and is now morphed into a rightwing xenophobic cause that is wrapped up in islamophobia. QS's vestigial adherence to separatism is holding them back from becoming any kind of a real force in Quebec politics. The people who are still hard core dyed in the wool separatist (and they are dying out) are the people who will vote for Peladeau no matter what.

I'd support QS if not for their dumb sep stance.

I'm sure they'll be tripping all over themselves to completely change their ideology to win the key riding of Kansas.

[VPH]

Well, I'm a Canadian citizen who very well might be moving to Montreal in the near future...

[Lotuslander]

I Think Coquitlam-Burke Mountain will be the interesting one, since Van-Mount Pleasant would go NDP if they ran a sign post.

Highly doubt that. Firstly, the NDP in BC provincially continues to drift and remain moribund. Financially, the BC NDP is also in very serious shape. They even recently sold their decades long head office to pay down debt. And they still remain in debt with a provincial election looming just 1 1/2 years away.

On top of that, both the provincial Liberals as well as the provincial Greens also have major "wedge" issues with the BC NDP.

In terms of Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, major higher-end residential development continues unabated up Burke Mountain, which demographics favour the BC Libs. The only party that has nominated here is the Greens - Joe Keithley (singer for D.O.A. who previously ran for the BC NDP). Suspect this seat will be a BC Liberal hold with Green vote eating into NDP vote.

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant is the BC NDP's strongest seat. No doubt. The Green candidate here, Pete Fry, ran for the Greens (one of 3) in the Vancouver municipal election. The Greens were the top 3 vote getters in Van-MP during the 2014 muni election. And Fry has been campaigning here for months. While this seat will be an NDP hold, suspect that the Green vote will also eat heavily into the former NDP vote here - with the Greens placing 2nd.

With the recent fed election and the upcoming X-mas season, also suspect that the by-elections will be held in February.

[DL]

The BC NDP should pick up Coquitlam-Burke Mountain pretty easily - they narrowed the gap in that seat from 2009 to 2013 and right now the Christy Clark government is scandal ridden, and extremely unpopular. Its typically easy for the opposition to gain a marginal government seat in a mid-term by-election...holding it in a general election can be another story - but if you want to send a message to the criminals running the BC government - a by-election protest vote is an easy gesture. In fact the only time the government has won a byelection in BC in the last 30 years was when Christy Clark very narrowly won Vancouver Point Grey right after she became Premier - and even that was much close than it should have been and she ended up losing that seat in the general election.

The fact that federal Conservative support crashed in that area of Vancouver is also  warning sign - the BC Liberal MLA ran for the joined at the hip federal Conservatives and was crushed. I'd be surprised if the Greens get more than their usual 3% of the vote in that area - in the federal election and in the last provincial election the Greens got low single digits throughout suburban Vancouver and they are as moribund as ever...meanwhile the BC NDP leads in every province -wide poll and their new leader John Horgan is very popular and a much bigger draw than his predecessor Adrian Dix was... He seems to be getting good press and is a real "HOAG" (helluva guy)

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn+palmer+horgan+takes+gloves+launches+sharp/11502840/story.html

[Lotuslander]

It is very obvious that you don't live in BC!

BC NDP leader John Horgan receives very little press out here. And when he does it's due to his embarrassing "bozo eruptions" in the BC legislature requiring other BC NDP MLAs to hold him back.

Horgan is also a prolific letter writer to local newspapers in BC - and when he does it's typically letters of apology to the locals for making previous inaccurate and misleading statements to the locals.

Horgan is quick-tempered (cue the angry Tom meme) and "loses it" all the time. Just a few weeks ago, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer made detailed note of same in Horgan's confrontation with several major BC media reporters. "Go screw me" he said.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/vaughn+palmer+glimpse+prickly+side+john+horgan/11419169/story.html

Sorry. But Horgan is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off at a moment's notice. In politics, that is politically toxic. Never would have thought that anyone could make Adrian Dix "look good".

Even about a month ago, Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham threatened to quit the BC NDP caucus over BC Hydro's Site C dam, which BTW has major (82%) public support. And the NDP is opposed to natural gas development, LNG, other resource development, etc. Simply put, the BC NDP does not know what it stands for anymore. Again, it's drifting and moribund and basically has turned into a political train-wreck.

The BC NDP will likely see it's worst electoral showing in the 2017 BC election (aside from the 2001 debacle) since 1969.

BTW, during the recent fed election, most folk that I know voted Liberal here in BC - and these same folk view the NDP as politically toxic. Just not electable.

And then yesterday another major scandal broke out all over the news about prominent NDPers at Vancouver City Hall massively deleting all of their e-mails (Mayor's Chief of Staff Mike Magee for one). That finding was from an investigator of the BC Freedom of Information office.

Hell, even BC Green Party Andrew Weaver seems to be getting more press than BC NDP leader Horgan. And Weaver is seemingly more liked, respected, and credible as well. During the upcoming by-elections, the Greens, as the 3rd party will be the major beneficiaries in terms of popular vote share. No doubt about that.

PS. Over the past weekend, a well known soft-NDP supporter in BC ran a Twitter poll and was astounded that 85% want to see another party in BC akin to the centrist federal Liberals. Most of her followers and ones supporting that concept are also well known soft NDP supporters. Just shows how badly damaged the BC NDP brand is - notwithstanding that the fed NDP support in BC has collapsed to just 13% in today's Forum Research poll.

[136or142]

The BC NDP should pick up Coquitlam-Burke Mountain pretty easily - they narrowed the gap in that seat from 2009 to 2013 and right now the Christy Clark government is scandal ridden, and extremely unpopular. Its typically easy for the opposition to gain a marginal government seat in a mid-term by-election...holding it in a general election can be another story - but if you want to send a message to the criminals running the BC government - a by-election protest vote is an easy gesture. In fact the only time the government has won a byelection in BC in the last 30 years was when Christy Clark very narrowly won Vancouver Point Grey right after she became Premier - and even that was much close than it should have been and she ended up losing that seat in the general election.

The fact that federal Conservative support crashed in that area of Vancouver is also  warning sign - the BC Liberal MLA ran for the joined at the hip federal Conservatives and was crushed. I'd be surprised if the Greens get more than their usual 3% of the vote in that area - in the federal election and in the last provincial election the Greens got low single digits throughout suburban Vancouver and they are as moribund as ever...meanwhile the BC NDP leads in every province -wide poll and their new leader John Horgan is very popular and a much bigger draw than his predecessor Adrian Dix was... He seems to be getting good press and is a real "HOAG" (helluva guy)

http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn+palmer+horgan+takes+gloves+launches+sharp/11502840/story.html

I agree with this. Christy Clark also won the West Kelowna by election.

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

[Lotuslander]

I'd like to see the Federal NDP candidate for this riding, Sara Norman, run provincially.  She had a decent showing and would have won were it not for the late Liberal surge.

Huh? Norman in 3rd place with 27% and she would have won the riding? Most of the voters therein were Con<---> Lib switchers.