Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[RJ]

This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.

I thought it wasn't until after the conventions. If I remember right, Kerry didn't get a bounce from the convention while Bush did. It only got worse after the Swift Boat Frauds.

[Sam Spade]

This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.

I thought it wasn't until after the conventions. If I remember right, Kerry didn't get a bounce from the convention while Bush did. It only got worse after the Swift Boat Frauds.

We were a good three weeks after the Dem convention at this point in 2004.  And also mostly through the second week of the Swift Boat thingy.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.

Bush moved ahead after the Republican Convention for good, but they still seesawed back and forth until election day. Kerry lead pretty consistently until the RNC. I think Bush lead 55-41 immediately after the RNC concluded.

Also, good to see some numbers from Nevada and VA coming from Rasmussen.

[Verily]

This isn't a good sign for McCain, in 2004 this is when Bush moved ahead of Kerry.

Bush moved ahead after the Republican Convention for good, but they still seesawed back and forth until election day. Kerry lead pretty consistently until the RNC. I think Bush lead 55-41 immediately after the RNC concluded.

Also, good to see some numbers from Nevada and VA coming from Rasmussen.

Not in Rasmussen's tracking poll. Bush took the lead on August 12 and never looked back.

[Sam Spade]

In the form of Hawk...
Thursday - August 14, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 47%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 42% / 46%, including leaners (nc, nc)

Obama leads among voters who make less than $40,000 a year or more than $100,000 annually. McCain leads above those in between. Among Investors, McCain leads 50% to 45% while Obama leads among non-Investors 53% to 40%

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-2, nc)
McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)

At noon Eastern today, new data will be released on the Fairness Doctrine and the Virginia Senate race. At 3:00 p.m. Eastern today, the latest data for the Minnesota Senate race and the Colorado Senate race will be released. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, the latest numbers will be released on the Presidential race in Minnesota and Colorado.

[Democratic Hawk]

Friday, August 14, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)


Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, 44% unfavorable (+1, nc)
McCain: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[emailking]

I think it will be fine in the end. Obama will probably slaughter McCain in the debates, and then a lot of the leaners and undecideds may go his way. A lot of people still don't know much about Obama at all, whereas McCain is more well known.

LOL

Obama will slaughter McCain in the debates? With what? A barrage of uhs and ums? And people don't know him? Maybe that was valid a couple months ago, but a year long circle jerk in the media gave the public all they needed to know and more. The problem is that they know too much about him now.

Obama is much better in debates in McCain. I don't care about uhs and ums, as I say them too as do you and most other people. McCain is good at town hall but only 1 debate is close to that style and not so much. And yes, people don't know him. People who read this board and watch cable news know lots and lots about him, but that is only a small portion of public.

[Sam Spade]

In the form of Hawk...
Saturday - August 16, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 43% / 46%, including leaners (-1, -1)
McCain: 41% / 45%, including leaners (nc, -1)

Favorability

Obama: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)
McCain: 54% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, -1)

[Tender Branson]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

Favorability

Obama: 54% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)
McCain: 53% favorable, 44% unfavorable (-1, +1)

[Democratic Hawk]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

[Keystone Phil]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

[elcorazon]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

because we can't figure it out for ourselves.  we need J.J. to interpret the polls properly for us.

seems like it's tightened to me, already.

[RJ]

Once again, I'd like someone to explain why this illustrious "weekend bounce" hasn't appeared recently.

[Tender Branson]

I just e-mailed Rasmussen if they ever plan to conduct an Indiana poll before the election. There's been no serious poll from Indiana since about 3 months now. This is one state that should be polled once in a while ...

Finally, Rasmussen replied:

"Thank you for taking the time to write.  There will be a new poll on Indiana soon."

[Lief 🗽]

Nice.

[cannonia]

Is this page where you are getting the figures?  If so:

Monday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (nc, nc)
McCain: 43% / 46%, including leaners (+1, +1)

[J. J.]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

because we can't figure it out for ourselves.  we need J.J. to interpret the polls properly for us.

seems like it's tightened to me, already.

No, I'm saying, I don't know.  I'm not calling it tightening yet. 

Once again, I'd like someone to explain why this illustrious "weekend bounce" hasn't appeared recently.

The weekend bounce appears in Gallup and not Rasmussen, which is why I've referred to it being something related how Gallup draws its sample.  For some reason Gallup seems to oversample/undersample Obama/McCain on weekends, respectively, or  oversample/undersample McCain/Obama mid week, respectively.  Take your pick.

[minionofmidas]

Someone create a longterm graph, for both pollsters. I guess it exists to a statistically significant degree - though not as strongly as certain people on this thread make it out, obviously - but I'd prefer to know for sure.

[elcorazon]

Sunday - August 17, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 44% / 47%, including leaners (+1, +1)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (+1, nc)

which is better than yesterday

Somebody is nervous...

The race possibly got tighter; ask me Wednesday or Thursday.

because we can't figure it out for ourselves.  we need J.J. to interpret the polls properly for us.

seems like it's tightened to me, already.

No, I'm saying, I don't know.  I'm not calling it tightening yet. 

well, rasmussen has had th race within 3 points every single 3 day average for over 3 weeks now.  before that it had shot up to 6 points a few times.  I think the race is now officially tight, if it ever wasn't.

[Tender Branson]

It's amazing how similar the numbers from today are compared with the week before the 2004 DEM convention. Rasmussen showed Kerry ahead by 0.8% in the week before the DNC and RCP had Kerry ahead by 1-3%. Today, it's Obama by 1 and by 3-4% at RCP. The week ending with August 19, 2004 was also the last time that Rasmussen showed Kerry leading.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/week_by_week_numbers

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/bush_vs_kerry_historical.html

[Democratic Hawk]

Tuesday, August 19, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

Obama: 45% / 47%, including leaners (+1, nc)
McCain: 42% / 45%, including leaners (-1, -1)

Favorability

McCain: 55% favorable, 43% unfavorable (nc, nc)
Obama: 54% favorable, 45% unfavorable (-1, +2)

At 3:00 Eastern, the latest results from the Louisiana Senate race will be posted. At 5:00 p.m. Eastern, we will release data on the Presidential race in Louisiana and Florida.

[J. J.]

I would argue a tightening from June (maybe into early July), but being very stable since then.

Elcorazon, I said the race wasn't "tightening," but I did not say the race wasn't tight. I'd say zero to three on Rasumssen, but I think it's been there for at least a month.

Not a runaway, but a close race.

[elcorazon]

I would argue a tightening from June (maybe into early July), but being very stable since then.

Elcorazon, I said the race wasn't "tightening," but I did not say the race wasn't tight. I'd say zero to three on Rasumssen, but I think it's been there for at least a month.

Not a runaway, but a close race.

the only way it could be much closer is if it were dead even, swinging from -2 to +2 from day to day with no discernable leader.  Obama's lead has been wafer thin for weeks now, at least based on these tracking polls.

[J. J.]

I would argue a tightening from June (maybe into early July), but being very stable since then.

Elcorazon, I said the race wasn't "tightening," but I did not say the race wasn't tight. I'd say zero to three on Rasumssen, but I think it's been there for at least a month.

Not a runaway, but a close race.

the only way it could be much closer is if it were dead even, swinging from -2 to +2 from day to day with no discernable leader.  Obama's lead has been wafer thin for weeks now, at least based on these tracking polls.

I still give the edge to Obama, but this month, that margin is razor thin.  Now, it got tighter from June and I expect a convention bounce for both candidates.  9/15 plus is when I'll start looking.