Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[IceSpear]

The NYt poll shows Jindal and Obama having identical 40/54 approvals. In what has regrettably been the trend lately, Vitter is the most popular state official, at 51/35.

Why is Vitter so popular? He doesn't seem particularly likable, and of course there's the prostitute diaper thing.

[Miles]

^I'm surprised its not lower given that McAllister's news has been reminding everyone of his scandal.

I mean, LA being a conservative state, he votes the way a majority of his constituents think he should on the high profile issues. When it comes to stuff like flood insurance and coastal restoration, he'll work with Landrieu in tending to those local interests.

[TX Conservative Dem]

Plus Vitter and Landrieu HATE each other personally and politically.

[Miles]

Guillory will likely run for LA-05 if Riser punts.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

Ugh, could have done without this: Vitter's Fund for Louisiana's Future can raise unlimited amounts of money.

[Miles]

SMOR released the Governor part of their last poll:

Primary

Landrieu (D)- 29%
Vitter (R)- 29%
Kennedy (R)- 12%
Dardenne (R)- 11%
Edwards (D)- 6%
Angelle (R)- 4%

Runoff

Vitter (R)- 53%
Landrieu (D)- 42%

[TX Conservative Dem]

Not surprised Guillory is bailing on the LG's race.

[Miles]

^ He's not. Where did you get that?

[Miles]

Vitter is donating $1 million to his super PAC from his Senate campaign warchest; the ethics are questionable.

[windjammer]

Vitter is donating $1 million to his super PAC from his Senate campaign warchest; the ethics are questionable.

Eeeeh, ethic and Vitter are soooooo, different

[TX Conservative Dem]

When's the filing deadline for Louisiana statewide office candidates ?

[Miles]

^ August 22.

[Miles]

#leavingthedooropen:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

Good news for Dardenne:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

Wow, how bout that. Vitter says he won't rule out Medicare expansion if he were Governor:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

PPP had numbers for this race included in their last poll here. No jungle primary (which is the most important part) but here are the head-to-heads:

Vitter (R)- 52%
Edwards (D)- 30%

Dardenne (R)- 49%
Edwards (D)- 26%

Vitter (R)- 48%
Landrieu (D)- 44%

Dardenne (R)- 43%
Landrieu (D)- 43%

Dardenne (R)- 34%
Vitter (R)- 40%

Dardenne's best hope is Landrieu not running. Edwards is weak enough where Dardenne could sap enough Democratic votes to make the runoff. Its pretty clear Dardenne won't be able to compete with Vitter with Republicans; Vitter beats him 64/24 with Republicans. Obama voters have a positive opinion of Dardenne (35/19), which is about the same as Romney voters (37/22).

Landrieu's numbers against Vitter might actually be higher; 20% of Democrats support Vitter in that matchup, which seems high to me.

[windjammer]

Landrieu wouldn't probaby win, but at least, it would help the democrats to compete for the next elections (Clinton in 2016,...).

The South needs to be targeted by the democrats.

[IceSpear]

At first I thought those poll numbers were for Edwin Edwards (lol).

Anyway, the DC area prostitutes are sure going to miss Vitter if he becomes governor.

[Miles]

Approvals/Favorables from Rassy:

Vitter- 52/38
Jindal- 45/53
Obama- 44/53

[henster]

Still a bit puzzled over why Jindal is still unpopular is it all because of the budget he proposed last year or a accumulation of other things over his term?

[Miles]

^ A big part of it is people know he's running for President, so the perception is that he puts his national interests first. Then there's the continual education cuts; he started to steer funds back to higher ed this year, but for the majority of his term he got bad press over that.

[Miles]

After being "80% in" for the past year or so, Baton Rouge Mayor Kip Holden is now making it 100% for the LG race.

[Miles]

Good Vitter write-up. With conservatives already in he's corner, he's aiming to expand into Dardenne's voters, as well, with positions like this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I really wouldn't be surprised if the LG race ends up being more entertaining than the Gov race.

There were rumors of Young running statewide, but now you have three credible Republicans and a (relatively) high-tier Democrat.

[Miles]

It actually sounds like Guillory got cold feet. I agree that there's an opening for someone from the north. Perhaps Sen. Gerry Long might drop down to the LG race (he was tentaively eyeing the Gov race):

You must be logged in to read this quote.