2010 State Elections in Germany

[minionofmidas]

lolforsa

Current federal polling
 
Forsa, Sep 15th         
CDU/CSU              30 %
SPD              24 %
FDP              5 %
DIE LINKE              11 %
GRÜNE              22 %
Sonstige              8 %
 
FG Wahlen, Sep 10th
CDU/CSU              32 %
SPD              31 %
FDP              5 %
DIE LINKE              10 %
GRÜNE              17 %
Sonstige              5 %
 
Infratest-dimap, Sep 17th         
CDU/CSU              32 %
SPD              29 %
FDP              5 %
DIE LINKE              10 %
GRÜNE              18 %
Sonstige              6 %
 
GMS, Sep 17th
CDU/CSU              31 %
SPD              30 %
FDP              5 %
DIE LINKE              11 %
GRÜNE              17 %
Sonstige              6 %

[Hans-im-Glück]

I love the polls by Forsa and it would be a dream if that would be reality, but it sounds like to me like Science Fiction.

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern poll by Forsa:

38%  (-5)   CSU
23% (+12) Greens
19%  (+2)  SPD
  7%  (nc)   Left
  4% (-11)  FDP
  9%  (+2)  Others

49-42 Majority for SPD-Greens-Left.

[Hans-im-Glück]

New Bayern poll by Forsa:

38%  (-5)   CSU
23% (+12) Greens
19%  (+2)  SPD
  7%  (nc)   Left
  4% (-11)  FDP
  9%  (+2)  Others

49-42 Majority for SPD-Greens-Left.

I want new elections, now

[Hash]

New Bayern poll by Forsa:

38%  (-5)   CSU
23% (+12) Greens
19%  (+2)  SPD
  7%  (nc)   Left
  4% (-11)  FDP
  9%  (+2)  Others

49-42 Majority for SPD-Greens-Left.

lol

[Lief 🗽]

CSU hasn't been below 40% (in an election) since 1954. Crazy things are happening in Germany.

[minionofmidas]

New Bayern poll by Forsa:

38%  (-5)   CSU
23% (+12) Greens
19%  (+2)  SPD
  7%  (nc)   Left
  4% (-11)  FDP
  9%  (+2)  Others

49-42 Majority for SPD-Greens-Left.

Uh... FW?

[Tender Branson]

New Bayern poll by Forsa:

38%  (-5)   CSU
23% (+12) Greens
19%  (+2)  SPD
  7%  (nc)   Left
  4% (-11)  FDP
  9%  (+2)  Others

49-42 Majority for SPD-Greens-Left.

Uh... FW?

Oh, I forgot to mention that this is a Bundestags-poll, not a state election poll ...

[minionofmidas]

New Bayern poll by Forsa:

38%  (-5)   CSU
23% (+12) Greens
19%  (+2)  SPD
  7%  (nc)   Left
  4% (-11)  FDP
  9%  (+2)  Others

49-42 Majority for SPD-Greens-Left.

Uh... FW?

Oh, I forgot to mention that this is a Bundestags-poll, not a state election poll ...

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll:

29%  (-5)   CDU/CSU
24% (+13) Greens
24%  (+1)  SPD
10%  (-2)   Left
  5% (-10)  FDP
  8%  (+2)  Others

A new Allensbach poll paints a different picture though:

32.5% CDU/CSU
29.5% SPD
18.5% Greens
  8.0% Left
  6.5% FDP
  5.0% Others

[DL]

Its interesting that the most consistent pattern in all these German polls is that support for the FDP is down as much as 10% from the last election and support for the Greens is up by a similar amount. Do people think that there is actually a massive FDP to Green swing vote or is it more FDP voters have gone to the CDU and the CDU voters have gone Green or SPD and some SPD voters have gone Green etc...? and for that matter what would be the explanation for such a big FDP melt-down accompanied by a rise of the Greens? Do those parties actually fish from the same "pool" of voters? 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is there any reason for Forsa showing such a different picture to seemingly all other companies? Do they do their polls in a different way?

[minionofmidas]

For all I can tell, Forsa and the SPD are in the sixth or seventh year of a protracted lovers' quarrel.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For all I can tell, Forsa and the SPD are in the sixth or seventh year of a protracted lovers' quarrel.

Ah, right. lol.

[Tender Branson]

A few more polls out today.

Federal, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen:

31% CDU/CSU
30% SPD
19% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  6% Others

Federal, Emnid:

31% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
20% Greens
11% Left
  6% FDP
  6% Others

Rheinland-Pfalz state elections by Infratest dimap (March 2011):

36% (-10)  SPD
34%  (+1)  CDU
16% (+11) Greens
  5%  (+2)  Left
  4%   (-4)  FDP
  5%   (nc) Others

Saxony-Anhalt state elections by Infratest dimap (March 2011):

30% (+6) Left
30%  (-6) CDU
21%  (nc) SPD
  9% (+5) Greens
  5%  (-2) FDP
  5%  (-3) Others

Brandenburg state elections by Infratest dimap (2014):

31%  (-2) SPD
26%  (-1) Left
21% (+1) CDU
12% (+6) Greens
  4%  (-3) FDP
  6%  (-1) Others

[Middle-aged Europe]

Its interesting that the most consistent pattern in all these German polls is that support for the FDP is down as much as 10% from the last election and support for the Greens is up by a similar amount. Do people think that there is actually a massive FDP to Green swing vote or is it more FDP voters have gone to the CDU and the CDU voters have gone Green or SPD and some SPD voters have gone Green etc...? and for that matter what would be the explanation for such a big FDP melt-down accompanied by a rise of the Greens? Do those parties actually fish from the same "pool" of voters?  

Maybe the voter transition analysis for the 2009 election gives some insight (Infratest dimap):

CDU/CSU
- Won 870,000 voters from the SPD.
- Lost 1,130,000 voters to the FDP, 60,000 voters to the Greens, and 40,000 voters to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,130,000 voters from the CDU/CSU, 520,000 voters from the SPD, 20,000 voters from the Greens, and 20,000 voters from the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 1,110,000 voters to the Left Party, 870,000 voters to the CDU/CSU, 860,000 voters to the Greens, and 520,000 voters to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 860,000 voters from the SPD and 60,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 130,000 voters to the Left Party and 20,000 voters to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 1,110,000 voters from the SPD, 130,000 voters from the Greens, and 40,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 20,000 voters to the FDP.


The numbers for 2005:

CDU/CSU
- Won 640,000 from the SPD and 110,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 1,250,000 to the FDP and 280,000 to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,250,000 from the CDU/CSU, 170,000 from the SPD, and 50,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 90,000 to the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 960,000 to the Left Party, 640,000 to the CDU/CSU, 210,000 to the Greens, and 170,000 to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 210,000 from the SPD.
- Lost 220,000 to the Left Party, 110,000 to the CDU/CSU, and 50,000 to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 960,000 from the SPD, 280,000 from the CDU/CSU, 220,000 from the Greens, and 90,000 from the FDP.


Sources: SPIEGEL special election issues, 2009 & 2005

[Insula Dei]

Its interesting that the most consistent pattern in all these German polls is that support for the FDP is down as much as 10% from the last election and support for the Greens is up by a similar amount. Do people think that there is actually a massive FDP to Green swing vote or is it more FDP voters have gone to the CDU and the CDU voters have gone Green or SPD and some SPD voters have gone Green etc...? and for that matter what would be the explanation for such a big FDP melt-down accompanied by a rise of the Greens? Do those parties actually fish from the same "pool" of voters?  

Maybe the voter transition analysis for the 2009 election gives some insight (Infratest dimap):

CDU/CSU
- Won 870,000 voters from the SPD.
- Lost 1,130,000 voters to the FDP, 60,000 voters to the Greens, and 40,000 voters to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,130,000 voters from the CDU/CSU, 520,000 voters from the SPD, 20,000 voters from the Greens, and 20,000 voters from the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 1,110,000 voters to the Left Party, 870,000 voters to the CDU/CSU, 860,000 voters to the Greens, and 520,000 voters to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 860,000 voters from the SPD and 60,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 130,000 voters to the Left Party and 20,000 voters to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 1,110,000 voters from the SPD, 130,000 voters from the Greens, and 40,000 voters from the CDU/CSU.
- Lost 20,000 voters to the FDP.


The numbers for 2005:

CDU/CSU
- Won 640,000 from the SPD and 110,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 1,250,000 to the FDP and 280,000 to the Left Party.

FDP
- Won 1,250,000 from the CDU/CSU, 170,000 from the SPD, and 50,000 from the Greens.
- Lost 90,000 to the Left Party.

SPD
- Lost 960,000 to the Left Party, 640,000 to the CDU/CSU, 210,000 to the Greens, and 170,000 to the FDP.

Greens
- Won 210,000 from the SPD.
- Lost 220,000 to the Left Party, 110,000 to the CDU/CSU, and 50,000 to the FDP.

Left Party
- Won 960,000 from the SPD, 280,000 from the CDU/CSU, 220,000 from the Greens, and 90,000 from the FDP.


Sources: SPIEGEL special election issues, 2009 & 2005

* moderately amused at the existence of Die Linke-FDP swing voters.

[Middle-aged Europe]

* moderately amused at the existence of Die Linke-FDP swing voters.

They're practically non-existent though. With 48 million votes cast in the 2005 election, 90,000 FDP/Left Party swing voters translate to 0.19% of all votes. And in 2009 we're talking about 0.05%.

[Hash]

Who the hell could be a Linke-FDP swing voter? A wealthy Ossi who misses communism?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Who the hell could be a Linke-FDP swing voter? A wealthy Ossi who misses communism?

There are many possibilites. Someone who dramatically changed his politically views between the ages of 18 and 22? Or someone who is only marginally interested in political issues and party platforms and decides depending on which party leader he happens to like better as a person?

There are voters like that.

[DL]

There are more people than you realize who make voting decisions for the most superficial of reasons - such as which party had posters with the most vibrant colours or which party had a jingle that was the catchiest tune. For many people deciding who to vote for is NOT a rational process.

[minionofmidas]

Who the hell could be a Linke-FDP swing voter? A wealthy Ossi who misses communism?

A confused braindead BILD-reading working class populist who, unusually for his demographic, votes.
That would be where I'd go looking, anyways.

The numbers presented are sort of useless without the loss/gain to nonvoters and the loss/gain to dead/not yet of voting age.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Berlin state election poll (Forsa, 10/01)

Greens 30%
SPD 26%
CDU 16%
Left 15%
FDP 3%

Possible coalitions:
Greens/SPD
Greens/CDU
Greens/Left

I dunno, is this the first poll where SPD + CDU fail to win a majority?

[Tender Branson]

This is the first time I guess Greens/SPD/Left are above 70% and CDU/FDP lower than 20% ...

[Franzl]

Have I ever mentioned how much I detest Berlin?