2012 Elections in Germany

[Vasall des Midas]

Time for a new thread methinks.

Calendar

May 6th Schleswig-Holstein

Yeah, that's it. So far. We might get new elections on the Saar. We might get a new President. We'll have to wait and see.

We'll also have a mayoral election on the 11th and 25th of march here in Frankfurt, and I intend to report on that.

[Tender Branson]

We only have the Innsbruck town council elections in April and the Burgenland town council elections in October ...

Unless there are snap federal elections called for this year, which is unlikely.

[Vasall des Midas]

10 candidates have filed - deadline was on the fifth. We won't be told whether they all got their paperwork right etc til the 12th.

But here they are

Boris Rhein. CDU. Spoiled little brat whose father was an SPD politico who defected to the CDU towards the very end of his 20 year political career. Was an MdL 1999 to 2006, a Dezernent 2006 to 2009 and is now Hesse's home minister. Just turned 40, and seems to have lost some weight of recent.



Peter Feldmann. SPD. Attention whore and longtime city councillor. Jewish, as I learned a couple of days ago. Frankfurt has had Jewish politicians postwar, of course (Heiner Halberstadt, Ignatz Bubis and Michel Friedman come to mind), but I can't think of any postwar Jewish mayor of any major city in Germany. So that's a little curio. This is a down-in-the-dumps party that looked hard for a candidate who wasn't Michael Paris, but hilariously he might actually win this.



Rosemarie Heilig. Greens. Another party that was looking hard for a candidate after Manuela Rottmann turned it down. They govern this city along with the CDU, and they know Rhein is not remotely palatable to their voters (or to many within the decision-making circles, either.) Besides, given how the party polled recently and that Frankfurt is a stronghold, and that not running someone against Petra Roth in 2007 already looked bad... they had to find someone. Rosi Heilig looks good on paper with some administrative (that Feldmann is utterly lacking) as well as council experience. The problem is that no one knows her, and the few who do do so as Rosi Oswald. That's the name she sat on the council under. After her probably inevitable defeat she'll still fall upward - her election as Dezernentin that was already decided before Roth resigned will go ahead as planned.


Janine Wissler. Left. MdL. Younger than me, and rode the mid-2000s student protests wave into the Landtag. A trot.

Herbert Förster. Pirate. One of their two city councillors. Runs a tea shop. No, not a "tea shop" ie British middle class cafe. A shop that sells teas.

Ursula Fechter. FAG (that's FlughafenAusbauGegner). The new runway is built now, and everyone who pooh-poohed the talk about additional noise has been rather convincingly shut up by the airport itself. Meanwhile, the courts have issued an injunction until their final decision some time later in the spring that bans all night-time flights (this had originally been part of the package deal to get the thing built, but got watered down in later negotiations between the airport and its owner the state of Hesse.) So the issue is back on the agenda, and pretty huge.


Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate. The FW had a candidate - not their public face Wolfgang Hübner, whyever, but some unknown called Reinhard Kölsch. Who beat another unknown who had Hübner's support at the selection meeting. And then had to withdraw due to "unforeseeable, major family and health issues" (sounded like his wife was diagnosed with cancer or something seriously ugly like that.) Now they're without a candidate either, and have decided not to endorse anybody for round one, reserving the right to do so for a runoff.
Also, no nazi candidate, which surprised me.


Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief. "Honorary chairman" of the PARTEI. Which is now running him on the following platform:

1. Frankfurt 21. Move the financial district underground for a free view of the main station.

2. Dissolve the posh ghettos. Distribute the population of the Lerchesberg and the Holzhausenviertel onto the tower blocks.

3. Careful reconstruction of the Technisches Rathaus (this ugly concrete 60s thing over the ruins of the oldest part of Frankfurt has just been torn down, lol. And now they'll do some pastiche pseudo-reconstruction of oldness.) Demolition of Saint Nicholas church (opposite the Römer) to make room for much needed parking space in the old town.

4. Put a minus sign in front of the Euro monument.

5. Dissolution of Eintracht Frankfurt due to lack of perspective, immediate promotion of the FSV to the Bundesliga.

6. Renaming of four roads in very different parts of the city, apparently chosen at random, to Robert-Gernhardt-Straße. I'm not sure if that's a tribute to Gernhardt (a cofounder of Titanic), or a mockery of the many official tributes to the New Frankfurt School at the moment...

7. Tax on patio heaters (this was a recent rent-a-quote demand from a supposedly serious politicians) and on bringing SUVs into the city

8. No wall between Frankfurt and Offenbach (yes, that's the official plank. No, nobody wants to build a wall.) Instead Offenbach should just be annexed.

9. Smaller and cuter animals for the zoo

10 The airport to be relocated into the Taunus.


This is where it gets seriously obscure. Independent candidates Harald Frenzel (who?), Carlo Maria Schulte and Jean-Jules Tatchouop - frequent off-the-wall candidates both. I like Tatchouop. He's a nice bloke up close, though obviously mad as a hatter. DRC native.

[ObserverIE]

Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate.

...


Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief.

Surely the co-owner of something called Titanic would have been a natural candidate for Fast Drei Zwei Prozent to endorse?

[republicanism]

May 6th Schleswig-Holstein

Since it is my home state I will try to find some time to give all those who are interested some background information and, if possible, party-intern rumours and gossip in the weeks before the election.

[Vasall des Midas]

Non-shows. The FDP is wisely not running a candidate.

...


Oliver Maria Schmitt Titanic co-owner and formerly editor in chief.

Surely the co-owner of something called Titanic would have been a natural candidate for Fast Drei Zwei Prozent to endorse?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic_%28magazine%29

And then there's...

In order to achieve its majority, the PARTEI is willing to form a coalition with any other party – bar the FDP, 'After all, we're no joke party.'

[Vasall des Midas]

All ten candidates have done their paperwork right, all those that needed signatures (and that includes Fechter - the only remaining FAG councillor has joined the FDP's council party {wtf?} and left the FAG, so she's a candidate not nominated by a party represented in the city council) had enough valid signatures from registered voters - 186. The unrepresented candidates had their ballot order drawn by lot, the others are by last council election. The official ballot is

1 Boris Rhein
2 Rosemarie Heilig
3 Peter Feldmann
4 Janine Wißler (apparently, this is the official spelling of her surname, though she prefers to use Wissler)
5 Herbert Förster
6 Carl-Maria Schulte
7 Ursula Fechter
8 Harald Frenzel
9 Jean-Jules Tatchouop (who is of course from Cameroun, not the DRC. My apologies!)
10 Oliver Schmitt

Frenzel is a retired former Frankfurt firefighter who now resides in Fränkisch-Crumbach in the Odenwald. He also contested mayoral elections there a couple of years ago, receiving 1.4% of the vote. I have no idea about any political stances of his, but he submitted exactly 186 signatures, 5 minutes before the 6pm deadline of a week ago, and had the good fortune that every one of them was valid.

[Vasall des Midas]

FR has some sort of poll. By Omniquest, and done American style, without excluding undecideds. Also didn't poll the minor candidates.

Rhein 32.1
Feldmann 19.4
Heilig 12.4
Förster 4.3
Wißler 2.8
other / NOTA 8.7 (apparently. Deduced from the other figures adding to 91.3)
undecided 20.3

[Old Europe]

Basic stuff on the Schleswig-Holstein election:

The state is governed by Peter Harry Carstensen, first in a CDU/SPD coalition (2005-2009), then in a CDU/FDP coalition (since 2009).

Carstensen is not running for another term. His designated successor Christian von Boetticher dopped out last year after having admitted a sexual relationship with a 16-year-old girl. Boetticher'successor Jost de Jager was fairly unknown, having been the state's economics minister since only 2009.

The popular mayor of the state capital of Kiel, Torsten Albig, managed to defeat SPD state chairman Ralf Stegner in a primary-like contest in early 2011.

The last poll for the state election came out on November 18 last year (Forsa):
CDU 33%
SPD 32%
Greens 17%
Pirates 6%
SSW 3%
FDP 3%
Left 3%

As representative of the Danish minority, the SSW is exempted from the 5% threshold to win seats.

All bets are on a SPD/Green coalition under Albig, obviously.

[Vasall des Midas]

What's the fix for the election law? Is the CDU playing utterly disgusting holding games with the Constitution like its federal counterpart?

[republicanism]

From what I know we will have fresh elections in Saarland, and not a grand coalition. If my sources are right: Thank God!

[I left.]

From what I know we will have fresh elections in Saarland, and not a grand coalition. If my sources are right: Thank God!

So they're not quite as dumb as I thought.

[Vasall des Midas]

'twas on the radio, so, yeah.

[Tender Branson]

A few new polls:

Hessen

33% CDU
31% SPD
21% Greens
  4% Left
  4% Pirates
  3% FDP
  4% Others

Strong 52-33 majority for SPD-Greens. 60-36 majority for Left-wingish parties.

Hamburg

51% SPD
20% CDU
14% Greens
  5% Pirates
  4% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Others

Absolute 51-39 majority for SPD. 74-23 majority for Left-wingish parties.

NRW

33% SPD
31% CDU
17% Greens
  8% Pirates
  5% Left
  3% FDP
  3% Others

50-44 majority for SPD-Greens. 63-34 majority for Left-wingish parties.

[Tender Branson]

New Schleswig-Holstein poll, which will hold state elections this year:

34% CDU
32% SPD
15% Greens
  7% Pirates
  4% FDP
  3% SSW
  3% Left
  2% Others

47-41 majority for SPD-Greens.

[DL]

Doesn't the SSW always get a couple is seats in Schleswig-Holstein under a special law and they almost always ally themselves with the SPD against the CDU?

[Vasall des Midas]

Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

[Old Europe]

Doesn't the SSW always get a couple is seats in Schleswig-Holstein under a special law and they almost always ally themselves with the SPD against the CDU?

Define "almost always".

They tried it back in 2005 (SPD/Green minority government backed by the SSW) and I have no idea whether they'll be willing to give it another try after having experienced that debacle.

[DL]

Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

No it makes it 50-41 for SPD-Green-SSW

[Vasall des Midas]

Yessir, so it's 47-44 actually.

No it makes it 50-41 for SPD-Green-SSW

No. Reality doesn't work that way.

[Tender Branson]

2 interesting new polls out today:

Niedersachsen

36%  [-6.5] CDU
32% [+1.7] SPD
17% [+9.0] Greens
  5%  [-2.1] Left
  4% [+4.0] Pirates
  3%  [-5.2] FDP
  3%  [-0.9] Others

49-41 majority for SPD-Greens.

Saarland (votes at the end of March)

38% [+13.5] SPD
34%    [-0.5] CDU
13%    [-8.3] Left
  6%   [+0.1] Greens
  5%   [+5.0] Pirates
  2%    [-7.2] FDP
  2%    [-2.6] Others

51-45 majority for SPD-Left, or 49-47 majority for SPD-Greens-Pirates or a Grand Coalition.

What is a likely coalition in yourr opinion ?

[JonBidinger]

Personally, I don't see the Pirate Party entering into a coalition government in Saarland, whether it is them not risking their protest party status or the SPD not wanting the "untested crazies" in government. A red-red coalition could be possible if they have gotten over their previous baggage, but I wouldnt count on it. I could see some floating the idea of a red-red-green coalition to marginalize Die Linke within the coalition but that would probably be a mess to form. While a grand coalition failed before the elections were called, and that could cast doubt on a grand coalition after the elections, it would be more likely to form on the SPD's terms.

Just my speculation, I don't have any specific on the ground information.

[DL]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

[jeron]

Remarkable in all these surveys how the FDP is just getting demolished and falling into low single digits in state after state after state...can they even survive as a party or could they just end up folding - esp. if they end up with almost no elected officials and no party funding?

I suppose this was about to expected in Saarland.
I think they will survive, btw. It's not the first time their results are bad. From 1996 to 2000 they were only represented in four regional parliaments. (Results 1997-1999: Bayern 1,7%, Berlin 2.2%, Brandenburg 1.9%, Bremen 2.5%, Hamburg 3.5%, Hessen 5.1%, Mecklenburg-V. 1.6%, Niedersachsen 4.9%, Saarland 2.6%, Sachsen 1.1%, Sachsen-A. 4.2%, Thüringen 1.1%). As you see these results were awful. They also had a hard time in the mid-1980s. It's not easy to start from scratch, but they will come back.

[Vasall des Midas]

Saarland (votes at the end of March)

38% [+13.5] SPD
34%    [-0.5] CDU
13%    [-8.3] Left
  6%   [+0.1] Greens
  5%   [+5.0] Pirates
  2%    [-7.2] FDP
  2%    [-2.6] Others

51-45 majority for SPD-Left, or 49-47 majority for SPD-Greens-Pirates or a Grand Coalition.

What is a likely coalition in yourr opinion ?

SPD-CDU. Followed by CDU-SPD as the second most likely option.

Not that many of the others can be ruled out, mind.