Australia - 7 September 2013

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's really quite interesting to watch...

[minionofmidas]

Why would anyone want to hear the 'thoughts' of that disgusting racist thug? The sooner he dies the better.

Which one?

I agree either way, of course.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Morgan is also out...

Primary
ALP: 36.5% (-1.5)
Coalition: 44% (+1)
Greens: 10.5% (+1)

TPP (self-allocated)
ALP: 50% (NC)
Coalition: 50% (NC)

TPP (based on 2010 preference flows)
ALP: 48.5% (-1)
Coalition: 51.5% (+1)

Interesting to note that Rudd will be in Bennelong again today...

[Knives]

Should have stuck with Julia, someone who doesn't come across as a walking c unt...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

That was always the faustian bargain ... go down in a flaming heap with Gillard, but feel better about yourself, or save a good whack of the furniture with Rudd and hate yourself in the process.

[Smid]

TPP (self-allocated)

Self-allocated TPP is horribly unreliable, as discussed here by Antony Green. Specifically, he's talking about ReachTEL, but the actual polling company is unimportant because the same principle applies.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Vosem]

So, based roughly on Poll Bludger (looking at their prediction, feeding it into the pendulum, shifting a couple seats around to account for local factors), I got this prediction as of Sunday August 11:

New South Wales: The Coalition picks up Lyne and New England from the independents; Dobell falls to the Coalition as well due to fallout from Thomson, as well as two more marginal seats (Robertson and Lindsay). The most marginal seat, Greenway, stays with the ALP.

Victoria: The Liberals picks up 3 seats -- Deakin, Corangamite, and laTrobe.

Tasmania: The Liberals pick up 2 seats -- Bass and Braddon.

Queensland: The LNP retakes Slipper's seat. Other than that, the ALP and LNP 'trade' seats, with the ALP picking up Forde while the LNP, on a tiny statewide swing to them, flips Moreton.

Western Australia: The ALP picks up 2 seats -- Hasluck and Swan. Without MacTiernan, they'll be hard-pressed in Canning, so I think that'll be a Lib hold.

South Australia, Territories: Rather significant swings to the Coalition, but I don't think it'll be quite enough anywhere, although Snowdon and Georganas should be watching their backs.

Third parties: I do think Bandt will narrowly survive in Melbourne; polls have shown him in the mid-to-high-40s on first preferences, and I think that's high enough that if he can get even low twenties% of the Liberal voters to buck their how-to-vote cards and vote for him (which I think is reasonable), he can win. The ALP should be closer on 2PP, but Bandt will survive. In Denison, it seems likely that the ALP, the Libs, and the Greens will all have Wilkie as their second choice, and since he'll probably be in first place on first preferences I can't see him losing. Katter is safe. Palmer just wants attention, I don't think he'll break 20% on first preferences.

Summary: 81-66 Coalition majority. Bandt, Katter, and Wilkie sit on the crossbenches, which won't really matter in the House. The Senate is either a continued ALP/Greens majority or, if not, then ten degrees of fustercluck. In all likelihood without a larger Coalition victory the Senate will be so hostile Abbott will have to make the next election double dissolution.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

TPP (self-allocated)

Self-allocated TPP is horribly unreliable, as discussed here by Antony Green. Specifically, he's talking about ReachTEL, but the actual polling company is unimportant because the same principle applies.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I completely agree with that - but I just report.

As for Vosem's point - I don't sense a steep downhill slide, a la NSW and QLD, where it just got worse and worse. I do think Rudd's inability to command the agenda of the first week has damaged his campaign.

I just can't see without some odd external influence, how Rudd can win.

I think somewhere in Melbourne or Adelaide, Gillard is laughing herself stupid. There's a reason why so much of the front-bench went when Gillard did, it was partly about loyalty, but equally, they knew the man and considered the chance for implosion was high.

Part of the reason why I personally, in the end, thought Gillard probably should have stayed on (despite acknowledging the likely outcome) is that Rudd is Rudd and eventually his personal 'qualities' would get the better of him in the end... I just didn't expect it so soon.

[RogueBeaver]

At best Abbott gains a point or 2 2PP. But as you both said, fundamentals.

[morgieb]

With Gillard though, I feel the polls would be a whole lot worse, like ALP on 40 seats. Rudd won't get lower than 60 seats, and still is in an OK-ish position. But it seems a long way back....though of course anything can happen - there's usually a trend back to the incumbent by the end of the campaign.

Worse positions to be in than 52/48 IMO.

[morgieb]

LOL, Nathan Bracken is apparently running in Craig Thomson's seat of Dobell.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

lol...

Barrie Cassidy outlined the trend between the first Newspoll and the election result. It showed an average 3.9% shift over the race, you could argue it was about incumbency until 2010... it shows that when there is a shift, in the last 3 elections it's been to the Coalition.

[morgieb]

Hmm...how come Liberals poll better at the election rather than during the polls? Still have a lot of trust in the LNP?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Hmm...how come Liberals poll better at the election rather than during the polls? Still have a lot of trust in the LNP?

Maybe as RB's name says, it could be there's a natural suggestion now to the LNP as the natural governing party, meaning the ALP needs to actually WIN the election, as well as the LNP lose it.

[morgieb]

Yeah, maybe.

I could see their creditability wrecked if Tony wins the election though.

[Smid]

TPP (self-allocated)

Self-allocated TPP is horribly unreliable, as discussed here by Antony Green. Specifically, he's talking about ReachTEL, but the actual polling company is unimportant because the same principle applies.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I completely agree with that - but I just report.

I had assumed as much.

[Platypus]

OK, I'm voting again.

http://www2.nswnurses.asn.au/gallery.html?id=nsw0139_30.mov&type=video

[Talleyrand]

So, based roughly on Poll Bludger (looking at their prediction, feeding it into the pendulum, shifting a couple seats around to account for local factors), I got this prediction as of Sunday August 11:

New South Wales: The Coalition picks up Lyne and New England from the independents; Dobell falls to the Coalition as well due to fallout from Thomson, as well as two more marginal seats (Robertson and Lindsay). The most marginal seat, Greenway, stays with the ALP.

Victoria: The Liberals picks up 3 seats -- Deakin, Corangamite, and laTrobe.

Tasmania: The Liberals pick up 2 seats -- Bass and Braddon.

Queensland: The LNP retakes Slipper's seat. Other than that, the ALP and LNP 'trade' seats, with the ALP picking up Forde while the LNP, on a tiny statewide swing to them, flips Moreton.

Western Australia: The ALP picks up 2 seats -- Hasluck and Swan. Without MacTiernan, they'll be hard-pressed in Canning, so I think that'll be a Lib hold.

South Australia, Territories: Rather significant swings to the Coalition, but I don't think it'll be quite enough anywhere, although Snowdon and Georganas should be watching their backs.

Third parties: I do think Bandt will narrowly survive in Melbourne; polls have shown him in the mid-to-high-40s on first preferences, and I think that's high enough that if he can get even low twenties% of the Liberal voters to buck their how-to-vote cards and vote for him (which I think is reasonable), he can win. The ALP should be closer on 2PP, but Bandt will survive. In Denison, it seems likely that the ALP, the Libs, and the Greens will all have Wilkie as their second choice, and since he'll probably be in first place on first preferences I can't see him losing. Katter is safe. Palmer just wants attention, I don't think he'll break 20% on first preferences.

Summary: 81-66 Coalition majority. Bandt, Katter, and Wilkie sit on the crossbenches, which won't really matter in the House. The Senate is either a continued ALP/Greens majority or, if not, then ten degrees of fustercluck. In all likelihood without a larger Coalition victory the Senate will be so hostile Abbott will have to make the next election double dissolution.

NSW: I'm not convinced the regional seats (Dobell and Robertson) are going to fall, and I would wager the Western Sydney seats of Banks and Reid are actually a lot more vulnerable. I think Deb O'Neill's sophomore surge will pull her through, and while the ALP will suffer a nasty swing in Dobell, they'll hold it by the skin of their teeth on preferences. So I think the ALP loses Greenway, Lindsay (for sure), Reid, and Banks.

VIC: 100% in agreement. And Mallee will go to the Liberals.

TAS: 100% in agreement.

QLD: I'm going to go ahead and predict Brisbane falls to the ALP, while Beattie falls to pick up Forde and the boy wonder narrowly holds on in Longman. I don't think any of the ALP seats are in danger right now except Moreton, but I think that one will narrowly stay with them. I'll go ahead and put it as a draw though.

WA: Color me confused as to this sudden optimism about Western Australia Bowe has. The state government has been lackluster, but Barnett's still decently popular and it's not really a wedge issue. 5 seats would be a stronger performance here than Rudd achieved in 2007, and I think Ken Wyatt is strong enough to hold Hasluck. I don't see Swan moving either right now. The swing here won't be too large either way.

SA/NT/ACT: I think Hindmarsh is gone. The swings in South Australia will be immense, but luckily most of the ALP's six seats are on huge margins and come with a solid buffer. The aging, unpopular state government and Gillard effect from 2010 are fading away, and it'll be ugly. As for the Northern Territory, I think it'll be interesting. In the state election last year, Labor suffered huge swings to the CLP in the aboriginal regional areas, but did quite well in Darwin, and even received a large swing in a state seat byelection a few months ago. Both Snowdon and Griggs need to watch their backs, although I'd say Snowdon's a bit more vulnerable.

Third Parties: Denison and Kennedy are solid for the incumbents, and I tend to agree that Bandt's primary vote will (probably) save him in the end, although it'll be tighter than 2010. Not safe by any means though.

Senate: Labor will lose seats in Queensland (to KAP) and Tasmania (to the Liberals), I'm going to go ahead and wager. Possibly Western Australia (one of the ALP/Labor seats to the WA Nationals)too, which would mean that the ALP/Green coalition will lose its ability to block legislation since they'd only hold 37/76 seats. Predicting these is a bit more difficult though so I could be completely incorrect.

Summary: 85-62 Coalition Majority. ALP/Greens with 37 seats in the Senate. Coalition and allies with 36. Madigan, Xenophon, and Katter's guy holding the balance of power.

Admittedly, a lot of this is based on gut feeling, but it'll be interesting to see how close these predictions are.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I had a chat with a friend in the NSW ALP and the seats they're putting at the top of their list of concerns are Banks, Lindsay and Greenway... however, it must be said they're more concerned about Lindsay and Banks than Greenway.

They were feeling confident about Robertson and Dobell, but the injection of high-profile and well-funded Independents candidates in those seats are mixing it up more than they'd like.

The one thing no one is talking about here, but is being actively spoken about is the chance of ALP pick-ups in NSW, put it this way - there's a reason Rudd's been in Bennelong twice since calling the election and E-M once. They think both Bennelong and Macquarie are gettable.

[morgieb]

Who's the other high-profile independent in the Central Coast?

Also: http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/secret-preference-deal-expected-to-be-announced-which-would-see-bob-katter8217s-australian-party-preferences-flow-to-alp/story-fnihsr9v-1226695607928

Excellent news for the ALP if it happens.

[morgieb]

Tallyrand, what links do you have to Australia, if any?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Who's the other high-profile independent in the Central Coast?

Also: http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/opinion/secret-preference-deal-expected-to-be-announced-which-would-see-bob-katter8217s-australian-party-preferences-flow-to-alp/story-fnihsr9v-1226695607928

Excellent news for the ALP if it happens.

Nathan Bracken in Dobell and  Lawrie McKinna in Robertson, McKinna is the mayor of Gosford. McKinna isn't nationally well-known, but he certainly is in the area.

I would say the impacts of the preference deal with KAP cannot be underestimated.


Newspoll (issues)
* note that the asylum-seeker question was asked last month but the others were from Feb under Gillard (before the big slide)

Handling education
ALP: 46% (+5)
LNP: 33% (-3)

Handling the economy
ALP: 33% (+5)
LNP: 49% (-1)

Health
ALP: 43% (+3)
LNP: 34% (-2)

Asylum seekers
ALP: 27% (+1)
LNP: 42% (+9)

Unemployment
ALP: 40% (+3)
LNP: 41% (NC)

'Cost of Living' (new question)
ALP: 35%
LNP: 43%

[Talleyrand]

Are you hearing anything about Banks, Polnut? And the Newspoll issues survey seems very plausible. Voters trust Labor with the schools and hospitals, and the LNP with the economy and immigration.

Tallyrand, what links do you have to Australia, if any?

I have some relatives in the Sydney area. Never been, although I'd love to someday. It's a beautiful country by all accounts.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Are you hearing anything about Banks, Polnut? And the Newspoll issues survey seems very plausible. Voters trust Labor with the schools and hospitals, and the LNP with the economy and immigration.

Banks is more about the sheer size of the margin and demographics. I didn't get specifics info on Banks, but from the sounds of it, it's in the top 5-7 seats they're most worried about nationally.

Which is why seats like Macquarie and Bennelong are more a chance for them, because the demographics in both of those seats are different from the ALP seats in the Western Suburbs.

The over-arching vibe was disappointment that the bounce didn't last, but they certainly weren't resigned and there are quite a few, not true-believer types either, who think the election can still be won or forced to another hung parliament.

What I would say, that from what I've been hearing is that there is a lot more complexity to this year than even 2010. One scenario I've been thinking about is swings to the ALP in their seats, but bigger swings to the Coalition in seats they already hold. Which is kind of what happened in 1998. The reason why the ALP lost despite a 51-49 TPP win was because the biggest swings took place in their own seats, not the marginals.

Which is part of the reason, I'm skeptical of anyone suggesting the Libs winning more than 80 seats at the moment. I think they're ahead, but the seat-by-seat game is too diverse to get a clear picture from national polling.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Essential Poll

Primary
ALP: 39% (+1)
LNP: 43% (NC)
GRN: 8% (-1)

TPP
ALP: 49% (NC)
LNP: 51% (NC)

Preferred PM
Rudd: 47% (-3)
Abbott: 35% (NC)

Approval
Rudd: 45% (-5)
Abbott: 37% (-2)

Disapproval
Rudd: 43% (+8)
Abbott: 51% (NC)