Australia - 7 September 2013

[Smid]

I'm going to pray that what happened in BC can happen here as well. Not putting much hope into it, but that's really needed.

Yes, I'm also hoping that the Liberals outperform expectations...

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Happened in 1998: polls suggested a big Labor win. Voters said otherwise.

I'm going to pray that what happened in BC can happen here as well. Not putting much hope into it, but that's really needed.

Yes, I'm also hoping that the Liberals outperform expectations...

Former Foreign Minister Alexander Downer with some wise words:
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=872870

While a Liberal victory is very likely (and what I'm hoping for, like Smid, I hope the Liberals outperform expectations), you should never count chickens before they hatch.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Downer is right, the thing Abbott and the Liberals are at risk of, and I did notice a little of it in the Bufget reply speech, is acting too much like a PM-waiting, despite the polls, Australians could easily swing back to say 'not so fast'.

I expect the polls to tighten. I still expect the Coalition to win (however physically ill the idea of Tony Abbott as PM makes me (I'd be ok with Hockey , Turnbull, Julie Bushop))

[Knives]

lol no bishop... those eyes

[Hifly]

I doubt that the polls can be wrong this time. We have already witnessed consistent Liberal victories of lopsided margins in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia during this parliament. Often the polls have actually slightly underestimated the size of Liberal victory. But all elections have favoured the right.
I think an extremely likely outcome is that the Libs win more seats in September than the polls show on face-value.
Also, last week Labor preselection was called for the seat of Throsby, held by left winger Stephen Jones (the one who introduced the massive fail of a gay marriage bill into parliament last year). He's being challenged by a right winger who has the apparent support of Noreen Hay.
I can't imagine anyone who would want to be the Labor candidate in Dobell; After all that's happened they're likely to be smashed in that seat.

[RogueBeaver]

Yeah, I'd expect 52-3 2PP or so for now. 4 months to go, so much can still happen.

[politicus]

lol no bishop... those eyes

?

[Hifly]

lol no bishop... those eyes

?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IBgqHJSyovk

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New Nielsen poll is 54-46 to the Coalition (a 6% swing to the
ALP)

Also Newspoll has things unchanged at 56-44.

What is interesting is that preferred PM has tightened up again, they're tied in Nielsen (8% boost for Gillard) and she's one point behind in Newspoll.

[RogueBeaver]

So no budget bounce then.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So no budget bounce then.

According to Newspoll, no

[Smid]

Nielson was over-estimating the Coalition vote, the 6-pt swing is more of a correction from a previous bad sample, I suspect. I prefer to watch Nielson, Newspoll and Galaxy and assume the actual result is somewhere in the middle of the three of them.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Nielson was over-estimating the Coalition vote, the 6-pt swing is more of a correction from a previous bad sample, I suspect. I prefer to watch Nielson, Newspoll and Galaxy and assume the actual result is somewhere in the middle of the three of them.

Yeah, the average. Plus the ever-present Australian election year polling caveat.

The director of Nielsen pretty much said that the last poll was essentially an outlier, with this poll returning to trend. He noted the only two things of potentially statistical relevance was the 5% drop in the Coalition primary vote and the boost in Gillard's standing as preferred PM.

[DL]

I suggest that the ALP do that the BC Liberals did when similarly unpopular - run a relentlessly negative campaign that is full of personal attacks and innuendo about Tony Abbott and make people scared sh**tless about what an Abbott-led government would actually mean for Australia. Wasn't it in 1993 that the ALP was supposed to lose and they unexpectedly won by making people scared of what John Howard would do...

[RogueBeaver]

They did that for a long time- culminating in Gillard's misoygny speech. Didn't work.

[Talleyrand]

Looks like the polls have been pretty stable for three to four months? Are they likely to remain like this until election day, or could they be liable to significant tightening (like the 2007 election)? Still, I don't see a path to Labor victory at all under the current circumstances...

I suggest that the ALP do that the BC Liberals did when similarly unpopular - run a relentlessly negative campaign that is full of personal attacks and innuendo about Tony Abbott and make people scared sh**tless about what an Abbott-led government would actually mean for Australia. Wasn't it in 1993 that the ALP was supposed to lose and they unexpectedly won by making people scared of what John Howard would do...

I disagree with this, since Gillard needs to show firm leadership and stay above the fray. I think one of her biggest problems comes in the form of the feeling that she is not authoritative enough in her role, and has resorted to permanent pandering to hold onto her position at all costs, and that's something she needs to break out of. Personal attacks aren't going to work either; the success of the Liberal strategy in B.C. was fear of an NDP-led economy, not Adrian Dix's personality.

I'm not sure the '93 Keating-Hewson race serves as a good parallel to today's situation either. Keating, despite his unpopularity at the time, was still seen as a competent, powerful Prime Minister, and made the basis of his attack on the Coalition's proposed policies (e.g. the GST), which Abbott really hasn't given many of today.

[RogueBeaver]

Rudd now supports SSM.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Sitting governments have been down this much and come back... so that's the historic part.

So it poses two questions...

Could they? Yes
Will they? Probably not - for no other reason than there isn't really a big game-changer coming. Gillard's issues are about perceptions and honestly, her political judgement but also the judgement of those around her.

Note, Gillard's popularity goes up when she's strong, forceful and not stage-managed. After watching Abbott's election lau... I mean, Budget reply speech - Gillard made a look to one of her colleagues which was priceless basically saying "I cannot believe he's getting away with this". This is the Gillard people need to see.

I am hearing that the utterly dire internal ALP polling has started to turn back, but the issue is, would it be enough? and will it be in the right places?

The Liberal campaign managers know this could easily turn against them, so their strategy has been for Abbott to appear to look like the election is a done deal and act moderate and reasonable, talking about good-governance etc etc. It's very effective.

There are routes that ALP could take, start showing the hypocrisy in the Coalition campaign - Abbott keeps referring to his front-bench being a part of the Government that brought surpluses and reduced debt... but they also were the Government that oversaw Children Overboard, the AWB scandal, the biggest percentage increases in the public service (ESPECIALLY in Health), putting massive cash drains like the baby bonus on the books ... and remind Tony Abbott how fond he was of increased federalism and taking power away from the states... oh and his support for a carbon tax.... plus, you know scrapping low-income support supplemental payments to pay for tax cuts under the carbon price (which he wants to scrap) and deferring the increases to superannuation...

[You kip if you want to...]

Chances that Abbott pulls an Akin?

Although, I guess if it was coming, he's had like 3 1/2 years now...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Chances that Abbott pulls an Akin?

Although, I guess if it was coming, he's had like 3 1/2 years now...

Abbott has a history of saying stupid things, but the ALP has been PRAYING for a clanger of one from him since he became leader and it really hasn't happened yet... and I don't expect it to. If there's *sigh* a positive thing I can say for him, it's this, he has shown a degree of self-discipline I never expected.

[Talleyrand]

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http://www.northerndailyleader.com.au/story/1511828/poll-shows-windsor-ahead/?src=rss

Some sort of internal poll (primary only) shows Tony Windsor leading Barnaby Joyce in New England, which corroborates what Smid and Polnut were suggesting earlier- that he may not in fact be a dead man walking. I'm not sure what the pollster's track record is or even if it has one, but if this has some credibility, it's welcome news.

[RogueBeaver]

On this side of the pond, we've had a few senators quit to run for the House. They all lost. Difference is that Joyce can't get reappointed if he loses. So count me in the "bad idea" camp.

[RogueBeaver]

Ford is shutting down their last 2 plants. Dunno if outsourcing becomes an election issue, at least on the VIC front.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Ford is shutting down their last 2 plants. Dunno if outsourcing becomes an election issue, at least on the VIC front.

Governments and Ford are working together to make a transition package, although Ford's contribution is not yet known:
http://www.skynews.com.au/politics/article.aspx?id=875024


In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

[Hifly]

In today's news, Martin Ferguson, Labor member for Batman and ex-Minister for Resources, will be quitting Parliament at the next election:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/martin-ferguson-to-quit-parliament-at-the-next-election/story-fn59niix-1226653063801

Are the Greens seriously contesting his seat? They didn't do badly last time if I remember correctly.