Australia - 7 September 2013

[RogueBeaver]

Gillardites want a ballot next week if Rudd thinks he has the numbers. Can any Aussies here open these articles?

[morgieb]

I can't. News are major ****s.

[Smid]

Does anyone here want to donate to Craig Thomson's legal fund?

[RogueBeaver]

Haha. To recap those articles: both sides in caucus want a ballot to get this out of the way before the Parliament ends, and the unions will not be whipping a hypothetical ballot. If the trigger's pulled, I assume it would be on Thursday since Hazel Hawke's funeral is Wednesday. On top of all this Gillard is heading to Jakarta for illegal immigration talks. Either way Abbott keeps munching popcorn.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Yeah - something MUST happen before the end of next week.

[Talleyrand]

It'll probably just end up being Gillard and Swan being re-elected unanimously in a Labor party ballot if it comes to anything, just like the last time. Nothing much to see here- Rudd won't challenge and no one else will run or be able to oust her.

[RogueBeaver]

Meanwhile Abbott says Gillard's aping Hanson on 527s.

[Smid]

I'm not surprised Oakeshott is opposed to the Bill. I believe he quit the Nationals for personal reasons, but linked to the way in which an Australian who had immigrated here was being treated at branch functions.

[RogueBeaver]

Cabinet is wavering, many unions are staying neutral in all but name. Perhaps most importantly, Shorten's been cut out of the loop. Howes is the one who's keeping Shorten from moving, but at this rate both men may be irrelevant for these purposes within a week.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

It'll probably just end up being Gillard and Swan being re-elected unanimously in a Labor party ballot if it comes to anything, just like the last time. Nothing much to see here- Rudd won't challenge and no one else will run or be able to oust her.

Yeah if Rudd actually wants to be leader and PM again, it would make much more sense for him to let Gillard take all the fall and blame for the inevitable election defeat of doom, and sweep in an take over after that.

[RogueBeaver]

Some adjectives from that AFR article: "would still prefer that Gillard step aside..." "he has not yet agreed." Word-parsing yes, but that's hardly rock-solid. At this rate I'd say Gillard's odds are nearly even.

[Talleyrand]

I'm not surprised Oakeshott is opposed to the Bill. I believe he quit the Nationals for personal reasons, but linked to the way in which an Australian who had immigrated here was being treated at branch functions.

I recall that it was racism towards his Aboriginal wife, although I could be incorrect on that. Either way, the bill strikes me as unacceptable, and Abbott for once is 100% correct on its implications.

It'll probably just end up being Gillard and Swan being re-elected unanimously in a Labor party ballot if it comes to anything, just like the last time. Nothing much to see here- Rudd won't challenge and no one else will run or be able to oust her.

Yeah if Rudd actually wants to be leader and PM again, it would make much more sense for him to let Gillard take all the fall and blame for the inevitable election defeat of doom, and sweep in an take over after that.

Well, considering how much caucus loathes him, this may be his last best opportunity to retake the Prime Minister's office. But what does he want to be remembered as; the man who led Labor to its worst defeat since 1975 or the wronged former leader who could have saved the party? 

[RogueBeaver]

Little twist: Gillardites want the fantasy polls to show a greater topline bounce than female drop. What a joke.

[Insula Dei]

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People talk like that?

[RogueBeaver]

Now Rudd himself says nothing is happening.

[RogueBeaver]

There will be a showdown early next week, but probably only via ballot and as usual no one has a clue about numbers. Partly that Rudd's godawful at math, partly because the subatomic parliamentary party no longer has the interfactional discipline required to win a narrow vote. In the end they're arguing who takes the fall, so I really don't see the point in this.

[RogueBeaver]

Unions are torn: my guess is that they know both are terminal but the doomsday hysteria of DO SOMETHING is making them uneasy. Meanwhile AWU offered to double their donations to the party but no other union took them up on that offer. Given that Howes has expressed interest in a seat before, I wouldn't be surprised if personal political ambition is part of his calculation.

[RogueBeaver]

Camp Rudd accuses Combet of double-dealing, and he replies in Keatingesque terms. Rudd's prepared to abandon his no-challenge pledge but will need a big push and more defections.

[RogueBeaver]

Coalition could also gain de jure control of the Senate, per internal ALP polling? I'll stick with Antony Green on that one.

[RogueBeaver]

Newspoll out: 57/43, 47/29, 45/33 PPM.

[Talleyrand]

Under current numbers, the Coalition would hold over 100 seats after the election, assuming uniform swings in each state, and I don't see how Gillard, who has lost all credibility with most of the public at this point is going to make up much ground (I'm beginning to doubt whether she can ever keep the 2PP at 45% or 46% even). I don't expect Rudd to take the poisoned chalice (and there's doubt on whether he even has the numbers) and even if he did, I don't think he could dig Labor far out of this hole. Labor's likely headed for at least three terms of opposition, as a defeat of that magnitude will be quite difficult to recover from.

Another trend I'm seeing is that Abbott's numbers, while not good by any means, are steadily recovering and far outpacing Gillard. She'd probably kill to be at 43/54.

[Frodo]

Do any of you think that a defeat of the magnitude we are seeing for the Labor Party at the federal level will translate into continuing Liberal victories in future state elections after this September, like in South Australia for instance?  

[RogueBeaver]

Speaking of wipeout polling, here's a leaked Lab internal which was supposed to be for her innermost circle only: they'd only be left with 30-35 seats. Usual caveats, especially given circumstances, but the polling company is named. Rudd supporters say they won't be provoked, but I agree with Talleyrand that either we get a repeat of March or nothing at all.

Talleyrand: Not new. Howard led Beazley as PPM despite trailing in the polls. Only when they switched to Rudd did that flip too. IIRC similar pattern for Howard/Keating.

[Hifly]

Do any of you think that a defeat of the magnitude we are seeing for the Labor Party at the federal level will translate into continuing Liberal victories in future state elections after this September, like in South Australia for instance?  

I think the Tasmanian Labor Party is doomed in 2014 no matter what.

[morgieb]

It's likely that SA and Tasmania lose anyway.

However, it'll probably mean that Labor has a chance in Victoria at least. With wall-to-wall Liberal governments, the baseball bats won't be out for long.