UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Zanas]

Did anybody post about yet another UKIP candidate being kicked, this time for threatening to shoot a Tory opponent?

This one was actually headline news as well. Largely because of the whole 'threatening to shoot an opponent because racism' thing.

In the Southern US, he would get a bump and win.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's a shame The Porno Baron sold Channel Five. It might have been worth seeing how tacky that channel trying to cover an election while endorsing UKIP would have been.

[ObserverIE]

ICM gives a tie: Lab 35 Con 35 UKIP 11 Lib Dem 9 Green 3

pb.com herd looking for a new Gold Standard.

[Lief 🗽]

I know it's hard to keep up with all the UKIP scandals but: Ukip candidate says woman writer 'needs a shag' and 'would love a big black thing up her arse'

It's so weird that a political party that is definitely not at all racist, misogynistic, or homophobic keeps accidentally nominating all these racist, misogynistic and homophobic candidates. Really, really weird.

[Clyde1998]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

[Torie]

Here is one thing that does not seem to be happening and I am not sure why. The numbers do not seem to be there for a Labor-LD coalition, but they might be there for another Tory-LD coalition. Most of the more left wing LD voters have already decamped to Labor presumably because they were unhappy with the coalition. So in seats where the Tories and Labor are close, and the LD out of the hunt, but have enough of a vote share to clearly hold the balance of power, why would not the remaining LD voters (presumably more right wing anyway), vote for the Tory to increase the chance of another Tory-LD coalition, which is the only way that the LD has a chance to remain in the power picture? I am not sure how many seats are in this category, but it must be around 15-20 seats or so anyway, isn't it? Anyway, it does not seem to be happening, at least not per the Ashcroft constituency polls. Is there any chance it may happen however more than the polls predict, given where the lay of the overall political landscape has finally ended up?

The SNP has really screwed Labor, and badly, hasn't it?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

With some exceptions, anyone still intending to vote for the LibDems by this point is either a) a genepool Liberal determined to stick with the party until the bitter end (as it indeed it may be), or b) sufficiently enamoured by their local LibDem candidate that they have decided to vote for them despite everything.

[Clyde1998]

The SNP has really screwed Labor, and badly, hasn't it?

Not necessarily. Although the SNP will back up Labour in the event of a hung parliament.

YouGov have the SNP leading in 51 seats in Scotland, but only clearly ahead in 38. A total of 17 seats in Scotland are "too close to call" - most of these are between the SNP and Labour. If the SNP gain most of them - then yes. If Labour manage to win most of them then maybe.

I'd think the SNP will win around 45 seats, with Labour on around 10 in Scotland.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The SNP have boxed themselves in a bit regarding post election maneuvering anyway (although it could be argued that to maintain landslide numbers they had little choice) as they have been very clear about not putting the Tories in power.

[Torie]

With some exceptions, anyone still intending to vote for the LibDems by this point is either a) a genepool Liberal determined to stick with the party until the bitter end (as it indeed it may be), or b) sufficiently enamoured by their local LibDem candidate that they have decided to vote for them despite everything.

Unless, they think like me, and plot and scheme, and now having seen the final numbers, make the appropriate move on the chessboard.

[Lief 🗽]

I think Al is saying that all the Lib Dems who would do that have done that by now. That's why they're at 8%.

[Angel of Death]

In case of a hung parliament, does the Queen get to have any actual influence on the next government?

[Torie]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

[Torie]

I think Al is saying that all the Lib Dems who would do that have done that by now. That's why they're at 8%.

Oh, I would not make this decision myself as a loyal LD until this point in time. So I am just musing as to whether there might be some final movement here. There are also a few seats apparently where the UKIP vote is putting the Labor candidate on top, defeating the Tory incumbent. They might be less likely to move, as they might want to teach the Tories a lesson that their priorities need to be less ignored, and so don't mind putting Labor in.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

In case of a hung parliament, does the Queen get to have any actual influence on the next government?

No, although the Crown does. In the case of a Hung Parliament then the will of the Crown happens (by one of those funny coincidences that just sort of happen, you know?) to be exactly the same as the will of the Cabinet Secretary (i.e. the man at the top of the civil service tree). The current incumbent is Sir Jeremy Heywood.

[Torie]

In case of a hung parliament, does the Queen get to have any actual influence on the next government?

Not really from what I have read. Not any more.

[Lief 🗽]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

But their "Forecast" is Con 283, Lab 261. For some reason...

[ag]

In case of a hung parliament, does the Queen get to have any actual influence on the next government?

Not really from what I have read. Not any more.

Constitutionally nothing has changed. If the parliament is truly hung, she very well may.

[Torie]

In case of a hung parliament, does the Queen get to have any actual influence on the next government?

Not really from what I have read. Not any more.

Constitutionally nothing has changed. If the parliament is truly hung, she very well may.

Ok, but if whomever she puts in is not what a majority of parliament want, because they don't like anything, even if just based on some tacit understanding - thus the "truly hung parliament," then wouldn't they just force another election ASAP?

[Clyde1998]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

It's needs a 2/3s majority to dissolve Parliament now - under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

[Torie]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

It's needs a 2/3s majority to dissolve Parliament now - under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

That's option 1. I was thinking of option 2, which does not require a two thirds vote (copy and pasted from the BBC site):

The Fixed-Term Parliament Act - passed by the Lib Dems and Conservatives to make their coalition less likely to collapse - has set the date of the next election in May 2020.
An election can only be held before that date if:

1. Two-thirds of MPs vote for it. In practice, that would mean it would need to be supported by both Labour and the Conservatives

2. A motion of "no confidence" in the government is passed by a simple majority of MPs. An election must then be called within 14 days unless a new government can win a confidence vote before that period is up

[Clyde1998]

@YouGov: Final YouGov Nowcast: Con 276, Lab 276, Lib Dem 23, UKIP 1, SNP 51

The outcome that allows the SNP to force another election at any time of their choosing, assuming that the Tories go along with it. Not good.

It's needs a 2/3s majority to dissolve Parliament now - under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act.

That's option 1. I was thinking of option 2, which does not require a two thirds vote (copy and pasted from the BBC site):

The Fixed-Term Parliament Act - passed by the Lib Dems and Conservatives to make their coalition less likely to collapse - has set the date of the next election in May 2020.
An election can only be held before that date if:

1. Two-thirds of MPs vote for it. In practice, that would mean it would need to be supported by both Labour and the Conservatives

2. A motion of "no confidence" in the government is passed by a simple majority of MPs. An election must then be called within 14 days unless a new government can win a confidence vote before that period is up

I doubt the SNP would vote down a Labour government; they'd be risking getting a Conservative one...

[Lief 🗽]

Panelbase: Lab 33 (-1), Con 31 (-1), UKIP 16 (-1), LibDem 8 (-), Grn 5 (+1)

[Silent Hunter]

The words "Too close to call" sum up this election entirely.

[Hifly]

Just finished my last round of deliveries. Convincing UKIP-leaners to vote Labour instead is a wonderful feeling. No idea exactly what's going to happen tomorrow.

Tomorrow I'm up from 7am for the next 22 bloody hours. Wish me luck.