The Institute of 2012 GOP nomination Intrade rankings

[Mr. Morden]

If Christie announces he's not running next week, then Romney could conceivably hit 50.  Of course, it also depends on what happens with the next round of polling.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie not running: Intrade responds.

Up: Romney, Cain
Down: Perry, Christie

Romney 56.0
Perry 19.2
Cain 6.0
Palin 4.0
Huntsman 3.9
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 1.9
Bachmann 1.5
Giuliani 1.1
Huckabee 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Christie 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.5

[Wonkish1]

Short Romney just because he'll be brought back to mid to low 40s pretty quickly.

The only other person I'd buy right now is Newt because there is too much risk in Perry and Herman over the next couple days with N***erhead going on right now. How that develops will largely be dependent on who succeeds more Perry supporters painting Cain as an opportunist against Perry on a nothing story or the media in painting Perry a racist based on a bogus story. I don't know how anybody could know the answer to that.

[Yelnoc]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

[Wonkish1]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

[Bull Moose Base]

What's Iowa intrade look like today?  Is Cain now the favorite to win it?

[Torie]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Cain withdrew his comments about Perry and the rock word on Hannity, after he had more time to learn "the facts."  He said he "knows" that Perry has no animus to black people.  He's not dumb. He is smart enough not to double down like Perry. In a word, he's smarter than Perry. Who knew? 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

Cain withdrew his comments about Perry and the rock word on Hannity, after he had more time to learn "the facts."  He said he "knows" that Perry has no animus to black people.  He's not dumb. He is smart enough not to double down like Perry. In a word, he's smarter than Perry. Who knew? 

wow, this would be a softball quesiton for Cain in the next debate...if he gives the answer he gave Hannity, Cain may well be on his way.

[Yelnoc]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Yeah, I saw that post.  In truth, I've been thinking about buying Cain since before his big win in Florida, after Perry seemed to stumble in the very first debate.  Trouble is, I don't think minors can trade on Intrade.

[Wonkish1]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Yeah, I saw that post.  In truth, I've been thinking about buying Cain since before his big win in Florida, after Perry seemed to stumble in the very first debate.  Trouble is, I don't think minors can trade on Intrade.

By the way, just to check are most folks on here under 20? Because damn I feel old then.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Cain, Palin
Down: Romney

Romney 54.3
Perry 19.0
Cain 7.2
Palin 6.1
Huntsman 3.9
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 2.0
Bachmann 1.5
Giuliani 1.0
Huckabee 0.5
Johnson 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Iowa

Perry 30.9
Romney 23.0
Bachmann 14.0
Palin 7.0
Cain 6.0
Paul 6.0

NH

Romney 77.9
Huntsman 6.0
Perry 6.0
Paul 4.0
Cain 2.0

[Eraserhead]

We really need some solid Iowa polling. Who the hell knows what's happening there now?

[King]

I'd be shocked if Bachmann were still strong in Iowa, unless all of her 3-4% nationwide support was concentrated in that state.

If Cain is pushing 30 in Nebraska, then there's hope.

[Bull Moose Base]

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 32.5
Christie 7.0
Huntsman 6.0
Portman 5.5
McDonnell 5.0
Cain 3.1
Martinez 3.0
Perry 3.0
Romney 3.0
Thune 3.0
Ryan 2.6
Daniels 2.5

Too much.  Rubio is more than 4X as likely as the next most probably VP nominee?  Come on.  Short her up.

3 days later Rubio's VP value drops by more than half.  His 30 point lead over Cain here is now 4 points.  (Also, Romney's lead over Perry in pres. is almost 40 points.)

[President von Cat]

Damn, I should have bought Cain.  He tripled in just over a week and, unless he s up,nex t week should continue that trajectory.

On another note, Romney finally broke 50.  Good for him.

Look back a few posts. I told folks to buy Cain, it was a no brainer at that time. Now my bet is that he's still cheap and should be around a dozen, but just keep in mind there is some risk in Cain right now because of conservatives being ticked that he criticized Perry for a bogus N***erhead story.

Yeah, I saw that post.  In truth, I've been thinking about buying Cain since before his big win in Florida, after Perry seemed to stumble in the very first debate.  Trouble is, I don't think minors can trade on Intrade.

By the way, just to check are most folks on here under 20? Because damn I feel old then.

I just turned 25. I assumed most people here were 20s+.

[The Mikado]

Romney over 57%?  Everyone knows I'm bullish on Romney, but that's a bit too high.

[Torie]

Romney over 57%?  Everyone knows I'm bullish on Romney, but that's a bit too high.

It really is basically over Mikado. When Cain/Newt/Perry gets the nomination, you can laugh at me!  But yes, it's basically over. Mittens is cheap!  You may find this hard to believe, but Pubbies do really want an effective POTUS (again hard as it is to believe, a lot of Pubbies are worried about how to make ends meet and finding or keeping a job too, so this is serious business), who along the way, will give Obama some much needed rest.

Your turn. 

[ag]

Honestly, it looks like the Republicans, once again, will have everything decided before the first primary. Romney it is, and Romney is likely to be the first non-Christian president of the United States.

[Averroës Nix]

Honestly, it looks like the Republicans, once again, will have everything decided before the first primary. Romney it is, and Romney is likely to be the first non-Christian president of the United States.

Except for Calvin Coolidge (and possibly J.A., depending on your definition).

[Wonkish1]

Honestly, it looks like the Republicans, once again, will have everything decided before the first primary. Romney it is, and Romney is likely to be the first non-Christian president of the United States.

Mormon is Christian. Its just a super duper crazy Christian religion.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Palin out.
Romney gains a fair amount.
Perry, Cain, and Santorum also gain.
A few candidates drop a little.

Romney 58.0
Perry 19.8
Cain 8.3
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 1.9
Bachmann 1.4
Giuliani 1.1
Johnson 0.6
Santorum 0.6
Huckabee 0.5
Johnson 0.5

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

short perry, buy cain

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Honestly, it looks like the Republicans, once again, will have everything decided before the first primary. Romney it is, and Romney is likely to be the first non-Christian president of the United States.

Except for Calvin Coolidge (and possibly J.A., depending on your definition).

Huh? I thought Coolidge was Presbyterian. How about Jefferson.
or, if Mormons aren't Christian, then Unitarians aren't either, so yes, you can include the Adamses and Taft.

[Mr. Morden]

Palin drops out and other gain.  Rubio VP odds drop, but he's still in first place:

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 59.0
Perry 19.8
Cain 8.2
Huntsman 3.7
Paul 2.4
Gingrich 1.9
Bachmann 1.4
Giuliani 1.1
Johnson 0.6
Santorum 0.6

GOP VP nominee

Rubio 14.0
Cain 7.0
Portman 7.0
Christie 6.0
McDonnell 6.0
Huntsman 4.9
Jindal 3.9
Perry 3.5
Thune 3.5
Romney 3.0

[Averroës Nix]

Honestly, it looks like the Republicans, once again, will have everything decided before the first primary. Romney it is, and Romney is likely to be the first non-Christian president of the United States.

Except for Calvin Coolidge (and possibly J.A., depending on your definition).

Huh? I thought Coolidge was Presbyterian. How about Jefferson.
or, if Mormons aren't Christian, then Unitarians aren't either, so yes, you can include the Adamses and Taft.

I have my suspicions about Coolidge.

Seriously, though, you're right about excluding Unitarians as well as Mormons with really restrictive definitions of Christianity. It just gets annoying when people here like to casually refer to Mormons as "not Christian" (when convention says otherwise) without mentioning that they're using an unusual definition of Christian.