UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Lumine]

The date for the vote on May's deal has finally been announced, it will be on January 14.

Also Corbyn finally put forward a motion of no confidence... on the PM, but not the government itself (thus a symbolic, not binding motion). So far it appears to have been an unsuccessful gamble because A. the Government is refusing time to debate it and is daring Corbyn to call an actual motion of no confidence; B. both the ERG and the DUP have noted that they will not vote against the government (or at least not yet in the DUP's case); and C. the smaller parties have hit back at Corbyn for not going for a formal motion of confidence and also called on him to do so.

Since May has the numbers to survive at least until the January 14th vote, it will be interesting to see how Corbyn gets out of the problem he's facing. If he doesn't go for a formal motion of no confidence he gets flak from his party, the SNP, Lib Dems and others for "not being serious" about unseating May; and if he does and then loses it (which appears to be the likely case) his conditional delays on potentially supporting a second referendum lose weight as it becomes clear he can't force a General Election, and is thus further pushed into a course of action (2nd Ref) which he appears to be hostile or at least very skeptical of.

[Tintrlvr]

How stupid is the DUP? Don't they realize that there is an obvious positive correlation between the hardness of Brexit and the likelihood of a united Ireland?

The DUP seems to be willing to gamble that continuing in the UK would win a border poll immediately after a no-deal Brexit notwithstanding what the polls say. Which, honestly, I think is probably right - in the context of an imminent referendum on Irish unification, Protestant Ulster identity would reassert itself, and Prots are still a majority in NI (for now). The DUP may even hope that a hard Brexit results in some Catholics moving to the Republic of Ireland, postponing the Catholic majority further.

[GoTfan]

How stupid is the DUP? Don't they realize that there is an obvious positive correlation between the hardness of Brexit and the likelihood of a united Ireland?

The DUP seems to be willing to gamble that continuing in the UK would win a border poll immediately after a no-deal Brexit notwithstanding what the polls say. Which, honestly, I think is probably right - in the context of an imminent referendum on Irish unification, Protestant Ulster identity would reassert itself, and Prots are still a majority in NI (for now). The DUP may even hope that a hard Brexit results in some Catholics moving to the Republic of Ireland, postponing the Catholic majority further.

Wait, postpone and not halt?

[Tintrlvr]

How stupid is the DUP? Don't they realize that there is an obvious positive correlation between the hardness of Brexit and the likelihood of a united Ireland?

The DUP seems to be willing to gamble that continuing in the UK would win a border poll immediately after a no-deal Brexit notwithstanding what the polls say. Which, honestly, I think is probably right - in the context of an imminent referendum on Irish unification, Protestant Ulster identity would reassert itself, and Prots are still a majority in NI (for now). The DUP may even hope that a hard Brexit results in some Catholics moving to the Republic of Ireland, postponing the Catholic majority further.

Wait, postpone and not halt?

Well, a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland is more or less inevitable on demographic trends. It's just a matter of when (or secularization could accelerate, but the DUP wouldn't be happy about that, either).

[Former President tack50]

Would a secular Northern Ireland be more or less likely to leave the UK and join Ireland?

Also, since the DUP didn't support the GFA (and thus, a soft  border) back in the 90s, why didn't they go for a hard border? A hard border would make things much easier for May and Brexit.

[YL]

Would a secular Northern Ireland be more or less likely to leave the UK and join Ireland?

Also, since the DUP didn't support the GFA (and thus, a soft  border) back in the 90s, why didn't they go for a hard border? A hard border would make things much easier for May and Brexit.

It's the Republic of Ireland, and hence the EU, who don't want a hard border, not the DUP.  (Well, no-one sane in Northern Ireland wants one either.)  The DUP's antics make me think they would actually quite like one, but that they realise that they can't actually say that.

[brucejoel99]

Would a secular Northern Ireland be more or less likely to leave the UK and join Ireland?

Also, since the DUP didn't support the GFA (and thus, a soft  border) back in the 90s, why didn't they go for a hard border? A hard border would make things much easier for May and Brexit.

It's the Republic of Ireland, and hence the EU, who don't want a hard border, not the DUP.  (Well, no-one sane in Northern Ireland wants one either.)  The DUP's antics make me think they would actually quite like one, but that they realise that they can't actually say that.

REEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Slow Learner]

How stupid is the DUP? Don't they realize that there is an obvious positive correlation between the hardness of Brexit and the likelihood of a united Ireland?

The DUP aren't nearly as smart as people think they are.

[brucejoel99]

How stupid is the DUP? Don't they realize that there is an obvious positive correlation between the hardness of Brexit and the likelihood of a united Ireland?

The DUP aren't nearly as smart as people think they are.

REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Fiona Onasanya (MP for Peterborough since 2017) has been convicted of perverting the course of justice. It is considered highly likely that there will be a by-election in Peterborough. Said town of course has such a bad record of selecting representatives that it's basically the Rochdale of the Fens.

[YL]

Fiona Onasanya (MP for Peterborough since 2017) has been convicted of perverting the course of justice. It is considered highly likely that there will be a by-election in Peterborough. Said town of course has such a bad record of selecting representatives that it's basically the Rochdale of the Fens.

Her two immediate predecessors seemed to be in a contest to see who could have the bigger negative personal vote.  Peterborough is unusual in being Tory in 2005 but Labour in 2017, and I got the impression that was basically why.

In other news, a handful of Tory MPs (Nick Boles, Anna Soubry and Sarah Wollaston) have indicated that they won't continue to support the Government if it moves to No Deal.

[YL]

That reduces the Lib Dem presence in the Commons from 12 to 11, with a current total of 9 Independents.

It's getting quite hard to keep track of the Independents.

Sylvia Hermon (North Down): elected as Independent.  Originally an Ulster Unionist, first elected in 2001, left the party over their alliance with the Tories in the 2010 election.  She's a Remainer but is supporting May's deal.

John Woodcock (Barrow & Furness), Jared O'Mara (Sheffield Hallam), Frank Field (Birkenhead): elected as Labour, resigned whip for various reasons.  Field is pro-Brexit and may well support May's deal; O'Mara is a Remainer and won't; Woodcock is also a Remainer but I think is one of the more likely opposition MPs to support it.

Stephen Lloyd (Eastbourne): elected as Lib Dem, resigned whip.  Voted Remain but supporting the deal.

Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North), Ivan Lewis (Bury South): elected as Labour, whip suspended.  Hopkins is pro-Brexit (of the "Lexit" type) but I don't think he'll vote with the Tories on this; Lewis is expected to vote against the deal.

Charlie Elphicke (Dover), Andrew Griffiths (Burton): elected as Tories, whip suspended.  The Guardian's list has Elphicke voting against the deal and Griffiths for.

Update: both Elphicke and Griffiths had the whip restored so they could vote in the confidence vote; this was somewhat controversial as the investigations had not reached a conclusion.

Lewis has now followed Field, Woodcock and O'Mara in resigning from the Labour Party altogether.

And we also have to add Fiona Onasanya (Peterborough), as discussed above.  So there are currently 8 Independents, 6 of whom were elected as Labour.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Paddy Ashdown has died. He led the LibDems from 1988 until 1999, successfully transforming the wreckage of the Alliance into a viable party (not something that actually seemed at all certain at the time) and eventually leading it to what was at the time the strongest showing for the Centre in terms of seats since the 1920s at the 1997 General Election.

[ag]

Paddy Ashdown has died. He led the LibDems from 1988 until 1999, successfully transforming the wreckage of the Alliance into a viable party (not something that actually seemed at all certain at the time) and eventually leading it to what was at the time the strongest showing for the Centre in terms of seats since the 1920s at the 1997 General Election.

A giant from a better age.

[The Dowager Mod]

Paddy Ashdown has died. He led the LibDems from 1988 until 1999, successfully transforming the wreckage of the Alliance into a viable party (not something that actually seemed at all certain at the time) and eventually leading it to what was at the time the strongest showing for the Centre in terms of seats since the 1920s at the 1997 General Election.

The best prime minister the U.K. never had.

[Blair]

A throughly decent man- sadly caught out by his flies.

He was part of a great generation of actual statesman from all three parties.

There’s also a part of my more liberal side which wishes he was offered a cabinet seat in 1997- as much as the quirks of the Liberals annoy me, they certainly could have tempered some of the worst New Labour traits (Iraq, 90 day detention etc)

Ashdown iirc was one of the only Lib Dem’s to tell Clegg not to go into coalition in 2010.

[brucejoel99]

Paddy Ashdown has died. He led the LibDems from 1988 until 1999, successfully transforming the wreckage of the Alliance into a viable party (not something that actually seemed at all certain at the time) and eventually leading it to what was at the time the strongest showing for the Centre in terms of seats since the 1920s at the 1997 General Election.

The best prime minister the U.K. never had.

Not even a contender for such a title, actually, and such a claim is, well, pretty inexplicable from the perspective of any ideological orientation.

Oh, shut up. How about you put politics aside for just a minute, regardless of your opinions (however valid you feel they are), & allow people to pay respects to a man who dedicated his life in the interests of his country & doing the right thing. He effected the world for the better; end of story. Just allow people to respect his accomplishments, not necessarily that of his politics but at least of his character.

And yes, he's definitely a politician that would be on the list of Best PMs the UK never had. He certainly would've made a better Prime Minister than any clown in the House of Commons, past & present since his tenure, that's for sure.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Interestingly Ashdown was initially a longtime Labour supporter. One got to wonder whether he'd achieve a high office if he stayed with the former party. 

I don't want to get into any discussion whether he'd make a good PM or not, but there sure were things I admired about the guy.

[Blair]

Clearly a talented and respected man- but tbf you can never actually know how well someone would perform as PM until you see them in a senior cabinet role. (Indeed even this is questionable- if GB died in 2006, no doubt he’d be hailed as the best PM we never had)

[Silent Hunter]

Rest in Peace.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Rest in Peace.

[GoTfan]

Best PM is highly subjective .  . . I would say Attlee,  mainly because he was not only responsible for rebuilding Britain and created the NHS, but also because as the Second World War dragged on and Churchill became (out of necessity) more absorbed with foreign affairs and the conduct of the War, while Attlee increasingly took on the role of keeping the lights on in Britain.

Like I said, it's a subjective topic, and one that our own biases easily influence. That said, we can still show respect for the departed regardless of our affiliation.

[brucejoel99]

Liam Fox: Brexit is 50-50 if May's deal rejected

This is nothing but a half-hearted effort to drum up support for the deal. "50/50" so Remainers get scared of no deal & Brexiteers get scared of remaining; either the Brexiteers support the deal or there's not gonna be any Brexit. This is almost amateurish.

[Zinneke]

Clearly a talented and respected man- but tbf you can never actually know how well someone would perform as PM until you see them in a senior cabinet role. (Indeed even this is questionable- if GB died in 2006, no doubt he’d be hailed as the best PM we never had)

Brown was arguably screwed by two factors outside his control - the global financial crisis and the exponential rise in the importance of consistent presentability in politics in the age of 24h news and emerging social media. He arrived in the PM chair right at the inflexion point of when the New Labour brand could no longer be controlled from within. 

[Blair]

Clearly a talented and respected man- but tbf you can never actually know how well someone would perform as PM until you see them in a senior cabinet role. (Indeed even this is questionable- if GB died in 2006, no doubt he’d be hailed as the best PM we never had)

Brown was arguably screwed by two factors outside his control - the global financial crisis and the exponential rise in the importance of consistent presentability in politics in the age of 24h news and emerging social media. He arrived in the PM chair right at the inflexion point of when the New Labour brand could no longer be controlled from within. 

There's certainly an argument that he would have benefited from being around in the 70s, and 80s- but I remember doing reading about political media in that era, where the common complaint was that it was 'too personality' orientated and 'too flashy'. They said that politicians like Michael Foot, who were rightly intellectual giants, had been caught flat footed. Indeed to take it to extreme lengths I remember reading how some liberal politician in the 30s couldn't do radio broadcasts because he kept speaking like he was at a hustings. It's always a complaint of politicians that they're living in the wrong media age- but it's fascinating in that it can often be reversed (compare the power of the British Press in the 1992 election, with that in 2017)

I'd disagree about the GFC- it certainly damaged Labour's brand, and prevented anything but a spirited defeat in 2010, but it allowed GB to do what he did best- global economics. I always suspect the reason why David Miliband (or any other cabinet member) didn't plunge the sword in during '08 was because they knew they didn't want to have to manage one of the biggest global crisis since the 1940s.

The problem I've always had with Brown is that he was a political genius, who could have actually reformed Labour's brand in 2007- but without an actual policy agenda he was useless.