2011 Canadian Provincial Elections - Wrap-up phase.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is it more on less nailed on that Hudak will be Ontario's next premier?

[Hatman 🍁]

New Ontario poll: (Ipsos Reid)

PC: 38 (-4)
Lib: 36 (+5)
NDP: 23 (+1)
Grns: 3 (-2)

All I can say is wow.

[mileslunn]

Have to see if other polls follow or if this is just a rogue poll.  It does seem though Hudak has slipped a bit as this is now the second poll putting the PCs under 40%.  The Liberals also have started campaigning so that may help.

[MaxQue]

Is it more on less nailed on that Hudak will be Ontario's next premier?

I would say yes, but, on August 10th, 2007, I would have said than Tory was almos sure to win.
So, we can't say yet.

[mileslunn]

I think the odds still highly favour the PCs winning the most seats, but it is still way too early to say whether they will get a majority or minority.  John Tory definitely lost a lot of support over his religious school idea although at best his lead was only a few points.  Also I could see the Liberals winning a minority still and if lucky maybe squeaking off a majority but they need Tim Hudak to mess up badly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Updated my projections: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/ontario-election-2011-prediction-august.html

The Liberals are now sitting on a minority government projection, winning a lot of close races in the 905 belt.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Saskatchewan poll:

Saskatchewan Party: 58%
New Democratic Party: 31%
Green Party: 5%
Liberal Party: 4%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For comparison, 2007:

Saskatories 51%, NDP 37%, Liberals 9%, Greenies 2%

[Hatman 🍁]

It was the first poll released since November, and yet there has been no significant change, except for the total collapse of the provincial Liberals who were pretty low to begin with.

[DL]

Considering that Wall is quite popular and Lingenfelter has totally bombed as NDP leader in Sask., I'm actually pleasantly surprised things aren't even worse for the NDP there.

[Hash]

FTR, the SK Liberals are now running as some libertarian classical liberal-type outfit. I suppose only those folks were interested in wasting their time running that thing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Heh, entryism.

[Hatman 🍁]

My Saskatchewan projection is up: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/2011/08/saskatchewan-2011-election-prediction.html

SP: 43 (+5)
NDP: 15 (-5)

ETA: Interesting that I came to the same conclusion as the guy from 308.  I wonder what his individual riding numbers will be.

[lilTommy]

No ones talking about the Yukon election this october... ok perhaps because there are less than 50,000 people there BUT still i find the only territory to use parties quiet interesting... because "parties" seem to be interchangeable... one retiring member was elected as a Yukon Party MLA, then became independent... next election became a NDPer, then indepedent again. The former premier Fentie was a NDP'r then a YP. The liberals have nominated a former NDP cabinet minister.... it goes on Plus here you CAN meet everyone in your riding, since there so small margins and races can be won/lost by a handful of votes.

first poll of the summer under a new YP leader:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/north/story/2011/08/10/yukon-elex-datapath-poll.html

YP - 40% up from 22% in July 2010
NDP - 35% up from 26%
Lib - 15% down (badly) from 39%

[Hatman 🍁]

I remember the last Yukon election. Every incumbent got re-elected even though like half of them had switched parties.

I don't think polling can be that accurate there. It's nice to see the NDP up, but after finishing 4th in the federal election, I can't get too excited just yet.

Hmm. The Green Party is running. Interesting, with such small districts they could perhaps win a seat or two. I mean, they won a few polls in the federal election, didn't they?

[lilTommy]

If i remember from the last set of maps, the Greens did well in Whitehorse (11 of the 19 seats are in the city) but i don't think they scored that well... they have only one candidate nominated. Elizabeth Hanson seems to be doing a great job, one of the #1 issues is housing, which the NDP is just killing the YP on. I also think the NDP might get some sympathy votes (as bad as this sounds) esp. in Mount Lorne-Southern Lakes, a new Riding but one where the recent NDP MLA died in a car crash... add that to the last NDP leader who died of cancer awhile back...

The NDP was 4th in 2008 too from what i remember, although i think he polled better this election, by about 5 points... but so did the Greens by about 5 points too. Still not great for a seat held by a former NDP leader.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yeah, well, she was a terrible leader so it's appropriate.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Greens won 4 polls in the Yukon:



(MaxQue's map)

2 of them are in Whitehorse Centre, which is the seat of the NDP leader.

[lilTommy]

The Greens won 4 polls in the Yukon:



(MaxQue's map)

2 of them are in Whitehorse Centre, which is the seat of the NDP leader.

Thanks! ok, so the Liberals pretty much were dominant in Whitehorse proper... Also that NDP and Green poll south of Whitehorse are in the Mount Lorne-Southern Lakes riding i mentioned.
Its still early, but with those Numbers i can easily see the NDP replace the Libs as opposition... or even win outright, the NDP seem to be building a good list of candidates based on their site

[lilTommy]

Ok, some Newfoundland chatter now...

http://cra.ca/support-for-nl-progressive-conservatives-decreases/
last poll in June 2011:
PC - 57%
Lib - 22%
NDP - 20%

Now the only prediction i've seen was 308... which puts the parties at:
Seats
PC - 38
NDP - 6
Lib - 5

BUT, Liberal leader Yvonne Jones is out, she has been suffering from cancer for awhile (seems to be a huge problem with leaders these days), she probably would have resigned earlier than now but things didn't happen that way. For all intents the Liberals are a mess, this leadership race could be a blessing (more media coverage thats mildly positive) or hurt them come election time (inexperience, and thrown in the fire) the NDP team seems to be coming together really well by the looks of it... about 21 candidates in place including some well known local names (remember Keith Coombs who won, the lost in a recount the mayoralty of Paradise as a 19yr old, hes been nominated).

[Hatman 🍁]

Now the only prediction i've seen was 308... which puts the parties at:

Hey now, I have one too!: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.com/p/prediction-maps.html

Although, I haven't done an analysis yet (but he hasn't either!)

My numbers are:
Tories: 36
Liberals: 3
NDP: 1
Toss up: 8

I think his numbers in NL and PEI are very wonky. The NDP wont win any seats in PEI, and I can't see us doing better than 2 in NL.

I did a sort of poll [recruiting for an online focus group] with the residents of the riding of St. Barbe for work, and I can tell you there are a lot of undecideds there. There is more openness to the NDP than I would have expected, so that's good. I don't think it will translate into seats, unless the party runs some good candidates.

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Ah yes, I remember that. Good to have him on board!

[Hatman 🍁]

His name is Kurtis Coombs, by the way. Google led me to a Conservative who is named Keith Coombs.  Although apparently, Coombs lost the Tory nomination in the Topsail by-election last year.

[lilTommy]

Wait, are you sure about Coombs? It looks like he was the campaign manager for Loyola Sullivan's conservative candidacy in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

My bad... KURTIS, i've always been bad with names

the NDP has is up on their site? If he was working for the tory's, thats a pretty big coup... and the NDP can only grow off the Tories really.
http://www.nl.ndp.ca/nr081111CoombsMPN

under the election section, looks like a good mash of candidates... esp (but no surprise in St John's), they probably have targeted SJ Centre and ST East (the candidates look strong, and spill over from Quidi Vidi)
The globe has an articule today... its all Dunderhils (sp) to lose, and she's no Williams. A drop from 73% to 57% is pretty massive, but 57% is still huge

[Hatman 🍁]

I just looked at the comments on the CBC article about his nomination. Such horrible visceral! The kid must really be hated. This might not be the coup you think it is. 

[lilTommy]

Yikes... well we all know how partisan some comments can be

Tory to NDP is a big jump ideologically to me, but hey it cause media coverage eh

Also. on the CBC was a list of 7 running for the Liberal leadership, anyone know any of them?