Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

Why are the Spanish government so viscerally opposed to holding a referendum anyway?

I vaguely remember seeing some polling that indicated a narrow lead in favour of staying in Spain - surely if the government sanctioned a referendum, and it failed, that would pretty much kill off the movement, as happened in Quebec.

Also, is there any indication of what demographics tend to support independence more, beyond the urban-rural split? Is it more popular with younger people, working class people?

Iirc other than the urban-rural split there's also an age split, with younger voters being more favourable to independence than old voters. That is often used by the hard right as an argument to say that  the Catalan government is "brainwashing" kids.

I do not think there's a meaningful split along the lines of income.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, the debt ceiling will be approved this afternoon. The votes will be exactly the same as for the 2017 budget (so, PP+Cs+PNV+CC+NCa), with the minor difference that NCa will abstain instead of voting in favour, turning it into a razor thin 175-174 vote (as opposed to the budget's 176-174)

It is also expected that the 2018 budget will be passed in a similar fashion.

What this means is that basically, Rajoy will be safe for at least another year. He might call an early election in late 2018 but I don't think that is likely even if he were unable to pass a budget for 2019 (he could just recycle the 2018 budget). A budget not being passed has been used in the past as the excuse for an early election though (so the 1996 election was called a year early after González was unable to pass a budget for the year) so who knows.

I do think a 2019 election is a lot more likely though, maybe even one in 2020, as far late as the law allows. 2019's only disadvantage is that there will be election fatigue with the european and regional elections that same year, but low turnout probably benefits PP anyways so he might go for it.

[Former President tack50]

OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html

[Velasco]

OK, so Catalonia governor Puigdemont has fired 3 of his "ministers" because they weren't seen as loyal enough to the referendum. This is alongside the one he fired last week or the week before for the same reason, saying that he didn't think the referendum would happen.

I guess the Catalan government is in crisis mode? In any case, the 2nd of October will be a very interesting day.

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2017/07/14/catalunya/1500016796_828492.html

The three ministers fired by premier Puigdemont (Neus Munté, Jordi Jané and Meritxell Ruiz) are not featherweights. They have been removed due to pressure from vice-premier Oriol Junqueras (ERC). I'd say it's the Ouigdemont's party (PDECat, formerly CDC) the one in crisis mode.

In case of a snap election, ERC and PDECat will likely run separately. The Republican Left of Catalonia is expected to win, while the PDECat might crash. It wouldn't be strange a post-election agreement between ERC and Catalunya en Comú. The latter is the merger of Barcelona en Comú (Ada Colau's party), the Catalan branch of Podemos, ICV and EUiA (IU). The comuns ("commons") have been hardly pressured to support the referendum by separatist parties and organizations. Their middle-gound stance has not been well received by the pro-ondependence movement. On the other hand, the Comuns are far more comfortable in the middle ground than it was the PSC.

[Former President tack50]

2 new polls about Catalan independence have been released. They probably have a pro-independence bias, particularly the ARA poll, but still seems better than nothing:

CEO poll:


¿Should Catalonia become an independent state? (all voting age people)

Yes: 41.1%
No: 49.4%

Note that this is the worst result for "yes" since 2012 or so.

Catalonia should be...

An independent state: 34.7%
An autonomous community of Spain: 30.5%
An state inside a federal Spain: 21.7%
A region of Spain: 5.3%

Again worst result for independence since 2012.

Are you in favour of a referendum?

Yes, even if it's unilateral: 48%
Yes, but only if it's through a deal with the Spanish government: 23.4%
No, never: 22.6%

Estimated results of the 1st of October unilateral referendum

Yes: 62.4%
No: 37.6%

Turnout: 67.5%

Note that while independence support is going down, this would actually be a terrible result for unionists since it has both a supermajority for independence and a relatively high turnout, giving the Catalan government quite a lot of legitimacy!

http://ceo.gencat.cat/ceop/AppJava/pages/home/fitxaEstudi.html?colId=6288&lastTitle=Bar%F2metre+d%27Opini%F3+Pol%EDtica.+2a+onada+2017

ARA poll

Results



Estimated turnout:



Turnout by party:



Turnout by possition on independence



Voting intentions on the unilateral referendum by party



Neutral numbers for unionists here (both unionism and independentism go down in support for "don't know"), but again, if the referendum does happen in the end the numbers look really bad.

And the alternatives aren't much better. The government could try to negotiate with Puigdemont and make a legal referendum, but that's probably not going to happen and even if it did it would be very risky. Alternatively Rajoy could just activate article 155 and send the Guardia Civil to stop the referendum but creating martyrs would only increase support for independence.

[FrancoAgo]

afaik in catalunya there are very few men of guardia civil, they would be move guardia civil from neighbour comunitad or use the army, and if the mozos de escuadra obbey to the catalunya government we have a civil war

[Former President tack50]

There has been a massive roadkill (is that the English term?) in one of Barcelona's most important streets. Not much is known but hopefully everything is alright. Several people are injured.

Here's a live news thing by El Periódico

http://www.elperiodico.com/es/barcelona/20170817/una-furgoneta-arrolla-a-varias-personas-en-la-rambla-de-barcelona-6228813

Edit 1: Terrorist attack confirmed. 20-25 injured, possibly 1 dead. Spanish passport found.

Edit 2: The terrorist(s) van driver are locked in a Turkish restaurant near La Boqueria. He has hostages.

Edit 3: The terrorists have split. One has gone missing the 2nd has hostages on that restaurant. There has been a shooting. 2 dead.

Edit 4: Live updates by The Guardian in English https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/aug/17/barcelona-attack-van-driven-into-crowd-in-las-ramblas-district

Edit 5: The area is completely locked down and evacuated with several metro stations closed. Also all major party leaders and politicians have condemned the attack.

Edit 6: 3 people dead now. The terrorist who escaped apparently escaped in a second van.

Edit 7: "up to" 6 dead, Spanish ID with an Arabic name on it found

Edit 8: 13 dead. The shooting I mentioned prior was a rumour and it didn't happen in the end.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

You would not use the term roadkill. In English that world refer to dead animals struck by autos.

And this is all very terrible

[mgop]

14 died, more than 100 injured. why spain?

[Former President tack50]

Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?





Anyways, IMO at least 2 good things happened:

• Turnout was quite high, with half a million people attending the prostests. That's quite high. For reference last year's pro-independence marches attracted 625 000 people.
• It was attended by everyone in the political spectrum. The king was there (first time the king of Spain attends a public protest). The main political leaders (Rajoy, Rivera, Sánchez, Iglesias and the leaders of the regionalist parties) were there. All of Rajoy's cabinet was there. All 17 autonomous community governors were there.
   The march was boycotted by no one, not even CUP! (though they did threaten to do so because the king was there, but backtracked)

[Lord Halifax]

Well, yesterday's protest against terrorism, with the slogan "No tinc por" (I'm not afraid) has been quite controversial since it has been politizised by basically everyone in the political spectrum. You had republican flags, Spanish flags, Pro-independence flags, signs protesting the king's relations with Saudi Arabia, etc. The king got booed as well.

Both sides politizised this. Why? Can't we all march against terrorism without making a political statement?

Its meaningless to march against terrorism since its something everybody are against and the protest has zero impact on the terrorists.

[Former President tack50]

Catalonia's government has released some crucial details about their "transition law" that would be activated if yes wins in their referendum.

It will be passed some time before the 1st of October.

Catalonia's superior justice court will become the Supreme Court. The president will be elected by a mixed commision with 5 members elected by the government and 4 by lower judges. The attorney general will be elected by parliament with an absolute majority. Judges dependent on Catalonia will remain on their jobs, but those that are from Spanish courts will be fired

The transition law will give amnesty to those prosecuted because of the independence process, including people like former governor Artur Mas, former deputy governor Joana Ortega, former speaker of the Generalitat and former leader of CDC in Congress Francesc Homs and former secretary of education Irene Rigau, all condemned because of their involvement in the 2014 illegal consultation

Spain's buildings in Catalonia will be expropiated. All Spanish civil servants will become Catalan civil servants.

It assumes that Catalonia will remain in the EU. All EU laws will automatically become Catalan laws, even after independence.

Having the Catalan nationality will not be incompatible with the Spanish one.

Catalonia won't pay its part of the Spanish debt unless there's a negotiation with Spain.

After 6 months there will be new elections to a constituent assembly to design a new constitution for Catalonia.

The official languages would be kept: Spanish, Catalan and Aranese

All powers of Spain over Catalonia would vanish

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://tinyurl.com/y99vkf9z

[Lord Halifax]

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here: https://cronicaglobal.elespanol.com/uploads/s1/72/68/24/Proposici%C3%B3%20de%20llei%20de%20transitorietat%20jur%C3%ADdica%20i%20fundacional%20de%20la%20rep%C3%BAblica%20(1).pdf

The link is too big.

[Former President tack50]

You can check the full text (in Catalan) here:

The link is too big.

Ok, fixed it by taking it through tinyurl

[Former President tack50]

Leader of Cs, Albert Rivera has presented his party's proposal for term limits. PP has already anounced that they will vote against it so they are looking forward to passing it with PSOE and Podemos support.

There are doubts about its constitutionality though. Cs argues that it can be passed as a standard law, just by reforming the Government Law, but PP thinks that a constitutional reform is needed.

In any case, if Rajoy called for a snap election in 2019 or before he would not be affected by it. Also interestingly if Rajoy stepped down and someone else became PM for 4 years Rajoy would be eligible again after those 4 years. So it's not an absolute term limit.

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2017/09/04/59ad4898468aeb3b7d8b469d.html

[Zinneke]

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"

"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"


source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

[Former President tack50]

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"

"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"


source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Then again this is all assuming the referendum happens, which is not guaranteed. Rajoy has promised that there won't be any referendum, not even one like the 2014 one. Not sure how things will go in the end though. Unless "no" miraculously wins in the referendum or Puigdemont chickens out and dissolves the regional assembly soon, Catalonia's autonomy will be eventually suspended. We are heading towards a train crash. It's probably a matter of when, not if.


Anyways, today the pro-independence side had planned to pass their referendum law. The debate has been a complete sh**tshow and the regional assembly's rules have been bent quite a bit. Of course the unionist side has been opposed to all of this.

There have been several reactions. PM Rajoy has asked the Constitutional Court to basically declare void anything passed by the Catalan parliament today. Also the Catalan fiscal has said they will prosecute those members of the Catalan parliament's table (the ones who set the schedule for the day) who passed the measure to include the referendum law in the schedule of the day.

[Zinneke]

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"

"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"


source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.

Well, that same poll predicts 50% turnout, which wouldn't be that low. The last European election in Catalonia for example had 48% turnout. The last town hall election had 59% turnout. So 50% turnout would actually be higher than a european election! And not that low compared to a town hall one!

However the last general election had 66% turnout and the last regional one had 75% turnout so it would still be considered very low.

Also on european elections it's just that people don't care, all parties see their voters turn out less in more or less the same proportion. Meanwhile here you'd have an organized boycott by unionists which would make the results worthless.

Well that is what surprised me about the expected turnout too. The "No" voters still engaged in the last regional election even though it was presented as the Nationalist list vs the Unionist parties, and Ciudadanos seemed to be the main benefactors of this. Plus previous polls for this referendum had turnout at much higher levels

I understand the idea of de-legitimising the referendum but what causes the No voters to suddenly change strategy and boycott, considering some poll showed them winning?

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The question is who the train crash will benefit the most? Mariano Rajoy or Carles Puigdemont? Both really .

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What about Podem/CSQEP/whatever. Did they abstain?

[Former President tack50]

Well, I guess most unionists don't want to legitimize the referendum. But it's worth noting that turnout is higher than in the 2014 one precisely because of some unionists going out to vote (mostly from Podemos). 2014 saw 90% yes but 35% turnout. Because of higher unionist turnout that 90% yes will go down to 70%.

However I don't think unionists want to risk it unless the referendum is 100% legal. And while overall polls do show unionists often winning it's usually close, if a true 100% legal referendum happened I could see another surprise like Brexit or Trump happening.

Keep in mind that if you take Podemos out unionists lose the 2015 election. PP+PSC+Cs get 39.1%, JxSí+CUP get 47.8%.

As for who will benefit, I don't think Puigdemont will benefit. On the Catalan side the real beneficiary will actually be ERC leader Oriol Junqueras. ERC is expected to win any regional election in a landslide while PDECat is expected to fall. PP, PSC and Cs are probably going to fall, most Catalans are against their autonomy being taken away. Podemos might rise and in fact it's already rising.

On the Spanish side, Rajoy might win some support but I'm not totally convinced, Rivera is also a very staunch unionist.

Sánchez is almost completely against it but he has made some blunders reciently about his federal state, saying: "All nations are in Spain", then saying only Galicia, Catalonia, Basque Country and Spain are nations, his endorsed candidate in Madrid saying that Madrid is a nation and with many regional leaders still opposed to him, his ideas and his leadership. On the other hand his proposal for a commision to reform the autonomies and solve the Catalan issue has been accepted by all parties, from PP to Podemos. Only ERC has said they won't participate.

Iglesias is the only one in favour of the referendum.

My guess is that Podemos and PSOE go down and Cs and PP go up again.

Finally, as for how the votes went, keep in mind that there's a final vote about the referendum that hasn't still happened. The other 2 were to bend the rules to allow the debate of the law to happen.

The first passed 72 in favour, 60 against, 3 abstaining

On the second almost all unionists refused to vote in protest to the chaos that was the voting. It passed 69 in favour, 3 against and 0 abstaining.

So it seems that Podemos split, with 3 MPs abstaining and the other 8 voting against alongside PP, Cs and PSC.

Also, the European People's Party group in the EU parliament has backed PP. Not exactly unexpected but whatever. I will say that this is where Unió's MEPs used to sit though. https://twitter.com/EPP/status/905489350372282368

And in my opinion if ALDE (where PDECat's MEPs sit) backs the unionists as well it's over. They won't get any EU support. Not like the EU was ever expected to side with Catalonia but still.

[Former President tack50]

2 final news for the day:

First of all, the referendum law has been passed. PP, Cs and PSC's MPs refused to vote and just left the chamber (PP's MPs also left Spanish and Catalan flags behind).

The official tally was:

Yes: 72 (JxSí, CUP)
No: 0
Abstaining 11 (Podemos)

Also, and this was kind of unexpected to me, Catalan opposition leader Ines Arrimadas (Cs) has said that she will present a no confidence vote against governor Puigdemont. Not like it has a chance of passing but still. It would need either CUP support (lol) or at least 5 JxSí defectors (almost certainly from PDECat).

She says her objective is to force new regional elections.

http://www.antena3.com/noticias/espana/arrimadas-anuncia-mocion-censura-puigdemont_2017090659b04f8f0cf27a5b1bd80efd.html

[Zinneke]

Thanks for the extensive answer. About the EU support for Catalan independence, I got a feeling from the EU bureaucrats in the Committee of Regions (excluding some of the Spanish ones) that Romeva had lobbied hard enough to ensure that while Catalonia would have to re-apply should it ever gain independence (and therefore be blocked by Spain, and to a lesser extent France), the actual Catalan citizens would retain their European citizen rights and still legally be considered Spanish. Its a complicated issue but then that's why you need a comprehensive agreement in place first to vote on...

Also, bit strange that C's and the PDEC sit in the same group in the EP...Our Christian Democrats still won't accept N-VA in the EPP despite having a decent working relationship. 

[Former President tack50]

In a shocking ^/s turn of events, the Constitutional Court has struck down the Catalan referendum. Also reminded mayors that they should not take part in it.

The Catalan government sent a letter asking all of Catalonia's mayors (all 946 of them) to say if they'll lend municipal spaces for the referendum.

Thus far more than 2/3 of all mayors (628) have said they'll support the referendum and lend municipal spaces while only 12 have spoken against it. However those 12 mayors are mayors of large municipalities while the ones who pledge support are mostly from small towns, with a few exceptions.

So in terms of population the unionists are actually winning, with 44% of mayors by population rejecting the referendum and 41.6% in favour. 290 mayors comprising the reminder of Catalonia's poulation have not answered.

The 12 town halls that said no include: Tarragona city, Lleida city, Barcelona city (though mayor Colau was somewhat ambiguous but most include her on the "no" side), L'Hospitalet and Cornellá.

On the yes side the most relevant ones seem to be Girona city and Badalona.

[Former President tack50]

It's been a while since I last posted a poll, so here are 2 new national ones and 2 regional ones (one for Catalonia, another for the Canary Islands):

ABC-GAD3 poll

PP: 31.9% (131)
PSOE: 23.9% (94)
UP: 18.4% (57)
Cs: 15.8% (41)

ERC: 14
PDECat: 4
PNV: 6
Bildu: 2
CC: 1

Approval ratings (out of 10)

Mariano Rajoy: 3.8
Pedro Sánchez: 3.8
Pablo Iglesias: 3.3
Albert Rivera: 4.3

http://www.abc.es/espana/abci-encuesta-gad3-para-abc-bloque-pp-y-ciudadanos-aumenta-21-escanos-ventaja-sobre-psoe-y-podemos-201709100257_noticia.html

El Mundo-Sigma Dos

PP: 30.8%
PSOE: 26.4%
UP: 19.5%
Cs: 12.7%

ERC: 2.3%
PNV: 1.2%
PDECat: 1.3%

El Español-Sociométrica, Catalonia's parliament (135 seats, 68 for a majority)



Hamalgama and Ágora Integral poll for La Provincia and La Opinión de Tenerife, Canary Islands parliament (60 seats, 31 for a majority)

PSOE: 23.8% (18/19)
CC: 17.3% (15/16)
PP: 20.2% (11)
Podemos: 14.2% (6)
NC: 9.8% (4)
ASG: 0.6% (3)
Cs: 7.0% (2)

Yes, CC is 3rd in the popular vote but 2nd in terms of seats.

http://www.laopinion.es/canarias/2017/09/10/psoe-dispara-islas-suma-pacto/807517.html

[Zinneke]

Looks like Rajoy was the first to lose his marbles. 13 arrests in the Catalan fiscal ministry and confiscation of 10 million ballots...by the Guardia Civil.

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that he doesn't even have the support of the Spanish Congress! A Cs proposal to signal support towards the government and the judiciary failed yesterday after PSOE unexpectedly voted against, claiming the proposal should also signal support to negotiate with the Catalan government.

In the end only PP and Cs voted in favour. Canarian nationalists and 4 PSOE defectors abstained and everyone else voted against.