CPRM, Pt 2: AL (RO) 7/17; GA (RO) 7/24; TN 8/2; 274K ballots left in CA

[America Needs R'hllor]

So, how are the results looking? Good/bad for Democrats, any notable upsets? For those not willing to read the whole threaadd

Good-ish. No Dem lockouts are really that plausible anymore. Republicans recalled Newman, but Democrats gained AD-76 by shutting out Republicans.

And the 2016 trends appear to be manifesting themselves in places like Orange County where all the Dems are leading statewide except for Governor and Insurance Commissioner

So, how are the results looking? Good/bad for Democrats, any notable upsets? For those not willing to read the whole threaadd

Pretty good, Dems avoided any lock-outs and seems like they'll get their preferred candidates for most districts. Katie Hill leading Bryan Caforio in CA-25, Gil Cisneros with Young Kim in the run-off in CA-39, Harley Rouda in 2nd in CA-48, and Mike Levin in 2nd in CA-49. Katie Porter in CA-45 is probably a bit weaker than her opponent Dave Min, but it's the toughest OC seat anyway.

Thanks!

[Greedo punched first]

So, how are the results looking? Good/bad for Democrats, any notable upsets? For those not willing to read the whole threaadd

Good-ish. No Dem lockouts are really that plausible anymore. Republicans recalled Newman, but Democrats gained AD-76 by shutting out Republicans.

And the 2016 trends appear to be manifesting themselves in places like Orange County where all the Dems are leading statewide except for Governor and Insurance Commissioner

Cole Harris (R-Lt. GOV) won OC.

[Rhenna]

Major yikes at Rouda beating Keirstead by 73 votes for second place. Can't imagine how dinner will be tonight at the Keirstead household.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Major yikes at Rouda beating Keirstead by 73 votes for second place. Can't imagine how dinner will be tonight at the Keirstead household.

There are a ton more votes to count, so don't bet on it being the final margin.

[136or142]

Major yikes at Rouda beating Keirstead by 73 votes for second place. Can't imagine how dinner will be tonight at the Keirstead household.

There are a ton more votes to count, so don't bet on it being the final margin.

Given the total amount of primary votes already counted, I doubt there are 'a ton.'  A fair amount, certainly, and certainly more than enough to overturn this result, though.

[Rhenna]

Major yikes at Rouda beating Keirstead by 73 votes for second place. Can't imagine how dinner will be tonight at the Keirstead household.

There are a ton more votes to count, so don't bet on it being the final margin.

Given the total amount of primary votes already counted, I doubt there are 'a ton.'  A fair amount, certainly, and certainly more than enough to overturn this result, though.

My bad! NYT had it at 100% in.

[136or142]

Major yikes at Rouda beating Keirstead by 73 votes for second place. Can't imagine how dinner will be tonight at the Keirstead household.

There are a ton more votes to count, so don't bet on it being the final margin.

Given the total amount of primary votes already counted, I doubt there are 'a ton.'  A fair amount, certainly, and certainly more than enough to overturn this result, though.

My bad! NYT had it at 100% in.

In most states, about 80,000 people, give or take, have been voting in each Congressional district primary.  That works out to 4,250,000 primary votes.  (80,000 * 53 = 4,240,000)

With 90% of the precincts counted, there have been around 3,900,000 votes counted.  So, I can't imagine there are more than 1 million votes outstanding at the very high end. (Probably more like 500,000)  I've been wrong before, but I'd be surprised if there are more than 10,000-15,000 ballots per district still to come in.  I guess there was an effort to have people get their ballots in by Tuesday.

[mencken]

Anyone find it interesting that both candidates in CA-49 will be from South OC (despite only being ~1/4 of the district)?

[Politician]

Oh my god, I nearly had a heart attack this morning. Good that Democrats avoided a shut-out in any of the 3 districts, though I wanted Applegate to win in CA-49.

[Jeppe]

Anyone find it interesting that both candidates in CA-49 will be from South OC (despite only being ~1/4 of the district)?

Mike Levin got his entire lead over Jacobs from the OC portion of the district too. Funny how that works out.

[wesmoorenerd]

By my count, a list of set November races that are guaranteed to NOT be D-R:

CA-06: Doris Matsui (D) vs. Jrmar Jefferson (D)
CA-20: Jimmy Panetta (D) vs. Ronald Kabat (I)
CA-27: Judy Chu (D) vs. Bryan Witt (D)
CA-40: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) vs. Rodolfo Barragan (G)

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Anyone find it interesting that both candidates in CA-49 will be from South OC (despite only being ~1/4 of the district)?

Mike Levin got his entire lead over Jacobs from the OC portion of the district too. Funny how that works out.

Hey, you still had a victory   Katie Porter won and has a real shot of winning the GE (meaning no one will complain about her beating David Min in the primary). 

[Jeppe]

Anyone find it interesting that both candidates in CA-49 will be from South OC (despite only being ~1/4 of the district)?

Mike Levin got his entire lead over Jacobs from the OC portion of the district too. Funny how that works out.

Hey, you still had a victory   Katie Porter won and has a real shot of winning the GE (meaning no one will complain about her beating David Min in the primary). 

I hope Jacobs runs for a State Assembly seat or something in 2020 though. I know that she’s not well-liked on the forum, but she really did work her tail off on the campaign trail.

It’s honestly a travesty that despite being 0.0000000000001% of the American population, there are absolutely no billionaires in Congress! Jacobs could’ve changed that. Shame on you voters of CA-49!

[Maxwell]

Democrats really over-shot their coverage in a lot of these competitive districts - with the exception of the seats that California Dems have been typically targeting recently (CA-10, CA-25, and dear god CA-21 where Valadao crossed 60%).

CA-10 and CA-25 look much better in the context of Dems over-performed substantially over their primary results in 2016.

After tonight I'm gonna just say CA-21 is Safe R for Valadao and CA-49 is looking more and more like Lean D (Dems are AHEAD of the GOP in a district that was basically made to be Safe Issa and a district with an R registration advantage).

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Dems only got locked out in CA-8

[Tintrlvr]

By my count, a list of set November races that are guaranteed to NOT be D-R:

CA-06: Doris Matsui (D) vs. Jrmar Jefferson (D)
CA-20: Jimmy Panetta (D) vs. Ronald Kabat (I)
CA-27: Judy Chu (D) vs. Bryan Witt (D)
CA-40: Lucille Roybal-Allard (D) vs. Rodolfo Barragan (G)

CA-44 looks pretty certain to be Barragan (D) vs. Brown (D) as well.

[ON Progressive]

Democrats really over-shot their coverage in a lot of these competitive districts - with the exception of the seats that California Dems have been typically targeting recently (CA-10, CA-25, and dear god CA-21 where Valadao crossed 60%).

After tonight I'm gonna just say CA-21 is Safe R for Valadao and CA-49 is looking more and more like Lean D (Dems are AHEAD of the GOP in a district that was basically made to be Safe Issa and a district with an R registration advantage).

I'd hold off on calling CA-21 safe right now. The Dem base there turns their ballots in last second (read: it'll take weeks to know what really happened), and always has pretty weak primary turnout

[Gass3268]

Dems only got locked out in CA-8

As of now with there only being a 760 vote difference for 2nd.

[ON Progressive]

Dems only got locked out in CA-8

Dems might be able to avoid that narrowly. Doyle is only down 760 votes, and the late ballots always break heavily Dem.

[Tintrlvr]

Democrats really over-shot their coverage in a lot of these competitive districts - with the exception of the seats that California Dems have been typically targeting recently (CA-10, CA-25, and dear god CA-21 where Valadao crossed 60%).

After tonight I'm gonna just say CA-21 is Safe R for Valadao and CA-49 is looking more and more like Lean D (Dems are AHEAD of the GOP in a district that was basically made to be Safe Issa and a district with an R registration advantage).

I'd hold off on calling CA-21 safe right now. The Dem base there turns their ballots in last second (read: it'll take weeks to know what really happened), and always has pretty weak primary turnout

There was also no real primary there because there were only two candidates, so Dems did not campaign.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Nate Boulton still won Louisa County.

[Sestak]

Just got up and am looking at current results - it's looking like no Dem lockouts anywhere other than the 8th? That's not bad.

[GMantis]

Looks like we escaped the lock outs well, but even if we get candidates in these potential pick up seats, the gop is still leading well in primary turnout for these districts and breaching 50% in like all of them. This is very bad and should not be happening. Not good at all...

From 2012 to 2016 there were 14 times when the Republican vote exceeded the Democratic vote in a primary in which the Democratic candidate won the general election (the reverse has not happened yet) and this happened all but once when the Republican vote was less than 55%. So even if ignoring the likely more Democratic late vote, the Democrats seem to be in a pretty good position.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Just got up and am looking at current results - it's looking like no Dem lockouts anywhere other than the 8th? That's not bad.

Even the 8th is a maybe.  As more ballots are counted, it may reverse that.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

how many more ballots are there yet to be counted?