Ontario 2018 election

[PeteB]

While the election is still not decided, I think at the moment the NDP has a better chance of winning than the PCs, but the next few days will be key.  If by week's end the NDP has a 4-5 point lead, then I think they have this barring a major polling error.  If still tied, it will come down to the wire.  Contrary to some I don't think this election was about endorsing a certain direction or platform, rather it was about who was the last person standing.

Before the election even started, voters had already decided they wanted the Wynne Liberals gone thus why naturally they turned to the official opposition the PCs as the vehicle to achieve this.  But after taking a long good hard look at Doug Ford, they concluded he was not fit to be premier of Ontario thus then took a look at the third party, NDP.  With Andrea Horwath, they liked what they saw thus their rise in the polls.  

The PCs, if they lose will have some hard questions to ask as this will be the 4th time they've blown a lead although unlike the past three times, this was the first time they had a double digit lead.  I suspect things will get ugly at first, but the party needs to go through this pain and in the long run weed out the more right wing elements which are just a drag on the party.  Maybe a loss in such ideal conditions will be enough to finally wake up the grassroots that Red Toryism is the only way forward if they ever want to form government again.

For the Liberals, its now try to save the furniture so they have a chance to rebuild post election.  If they can get in the double digit in seats (not likely), I think they will someday once again form government, but if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  Their best hope is NDP keeps good on its PR promise as at least that will allow them to stay relevant and if they return to the centre they could even become the kingmaker in future elections in deciding whether NDP or PCs form government.

If Ontario elections became PC vs. NDP races, I wonder who would take most of what would be left of the Liberal vote.

I've said it before and I will say it again - if the Liberal vote tanked totally (not likely after last night's debate), PC would win a majority.  With the current polling, where PC and NDP are very close, with the structural seat advantage PC has, and if the Liberals handed over a bunch of seats to the PCs in TO, 905 and Eastern ON, where the NDP is not competitive (should the Liberals collapse), it wouldn't be even close.  However, polls change so anything is possible, and with the Liberals likely to do better than expected just a few days ago, I think we are probably looking at an NDP minority government.

[PeteB]

This happened at Horwath's event in Etobicoke this morning:

https://twitter.com/jessiecatherine/status/1001103387104919552

I don't know what made him think this was remotely a good idea.

If I didn't know any better, I would say Qaadri was trying to get in Horwath's good books.  After Wynne's performance last night, can't think of a better present for Horwath than this.  If this is not the reason, Qaadri is just plain stupid.

In any case, Ford is going to win this riding, so this is more about feeding the media.

[mileslunn]

t if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  

This is a very, very false prediction.

Possible, but if you have no seats tough to comeback.  At least federally they had 34 seats.  Also I don't see a Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings, but who knows. 

As for how an NDP-Conservative race would play out, I suspect it depends on how ideological the NDP is.  If they are like BC, the PCs will win most of the time, much like the Social Credit in the past and BC Liberals today with only occasional NDP wins whereas if more like in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, I think the NDP will win quite frequently.  Liberals will probably become the swing vote so whomever captures them wins.

[PeteB]

t if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  

This is a very, very false prediction.

Possible, but if you have no seats tough to comeback.  At least federally they had 34 seats.  Also I don't see a Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings, but who knows. 

As for how an NDP-Conservative race would play out, I suspect it depends on how ideological the NDP is.  If they are like BC, the PCs will win most of the time, much like the Social Credit in the past and BC Liberals today with only occasional NDP wins whereas if more like in Saskatchewan and Manitoba, I think the NDP will win quite frequently.  Liberals will probably become the swing vote so whomever captures them wins.

We will likely see SW ON and Northern ON assume that pattern (PC:NDP), except in the major urban centers.  But there is no way that Toronto, good chunks of 905 (central ON, York region, Peel) and Eastern ON abandon the Liberals completely, in favor of NDP.  Unlike in the west, where the NDP is seen as an ally of the common man, many parts of ON still see NDP as the ideological left wing socialist party, that they want no part of.  That may change but not overnight. 

[King of Kensington]

Mainstreet will be releasing 7 more riding polls today including the other Don Valley seats and some in Brampton.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Actually, do the Ontario NDP want electoral reform? Because that could allow the Grits a space in future elections.

[mileslunn]

Actually, do the Ontario NDP want electoral reform? Because that could allow the Grits a space in future elections.

Yes I still think they would as most never want to another Mike Harris type government and with electoral reform that would prevent that.  It wouldn't stop the PCs from winning, but they would have to choose a Red Tory to do so and be moderate enough that they could form a coalition with the Liberals.

Personally I think ranked ballots though is the best way to go.  Besides I suspect if a different electoral system was used they never would have chosen Ford.  Many wrongly thought he could get over 40%, but I don't think anyone in the PCs was delusional enough to think he could get over 50%, except for perhaps Ford himself.

[Krago]

Back in 2007, I convinced my Mom to vote yes on the Ontario MMP referendum by telling her that it would be the final nail in Mike Harris' coffin.

My mother likes to hear the words 'Mike Harris' and 'coffin' in the same sentence.

[mileslunn]

Back in 2007, I convinced my Mom to vote yes on the Ontario MMP referendum by telling her that it would be the final nail in Mike Harris' coffin.

My mother likes to hear the words 'Mike Harris' and 'coffin' in the same sentence.

Exactly.  And countries like the Nordic Countries, Germany, and Netherlands have had plenty of centre-right governments, but none as ideological as the Harris government.  For starters I think if we went to PR, the PCs would split in two and the more moderate faction would be moderate enough they could work with the OLP and NDP only like the present ones.  In addition saddled of the baggage of the more right wing elements, they could probably pull away the extra 10% who were open to voting for them but haven't.  Likewise they might sometimes form a coalition with the more right wing one, but would probably be like Norway and Denmark right now, just a supply and confidence not a formal one meaning they would simply agree not to defeat them, but not have much say either.

[lilTommy]

The moment this country/province chooses a new electoral system, likely something more akin to MMP (since people like the idea of local candidates) the Conservatives/PCs will split. Just as mentioned above, the more right-wing faction and the more centre-right will form separate parties, but likely work together.

Any way, yes electoral reform is in the NDP platform this year. Odd how it hasn't been mentioned, but this election hasn't been one where this has come up yet, unfortunately.

[DC Al Fine]

Back in 2007, I convinced my Mom to vote yes on the Ontario MMP referendum by telling her that it would be the final nail in Mike Harris' coffin.

My mother likes to hear the words 'Mike Harris' and 'coffin' in the same sentence.

Exactly.  And countries like the Nordic Countries, Germany, and Netherlands have had plenty of centre-right governments, but none as ideological as the Harris government.  For starters I think if we went to PR, the PCs would split in two and the more moderate faction would be moderate enough they could work with the OLP and NDP only like the present ones.  In addition saddled of the baggage of the more right wing elements, they could probably pull away the extra 10% who were open to voting for them but haven't.  Likewise they might sometimes form a coalition with the more right wing one, but would probably be like Norway and Denmark right now, just a supply and confidence not a formal one meaning they would simply agree not to defeat them, but not have much say either.

I think that very much depends on which way parties split. Fiscal conservative/social liberal types are very much overrepresented on internet message boards and the editorial pages of major newspapers, so if the Tories break along that line you could very well see the Canadian right resembling Italy's more than Germany's.

I can see a moderate but still generally conservative Tory party doing pretty well under PR though.

The moment this country/province chooses a new electoral system, likely something more akin to MMP (since people like the idea of local candidates) the Conservatives/PCs will split. Just as mentioned above, the more right-wing faction and the more centre-right will form separate parties, but likely work together.

Any way, yes electoral reform is in the NDP platform this year. Odd how it hasn't been mentioned, but this election hasn't been one where this has come up yet, unfortunately.

I agree. I wonder how the Liberals and NDP would go under MMP. The Liberals seem a too diverse to stick together at least federally. Rural Newfoundland, Brampon and Anglo Montreal seems like a pretty eclectic mix of voters. I imagine the NDP would lose a hard left branch but would remain the most intact of the major parties.

[King of Kensington]

We will likely see SW ON and Northern ON assume that pattern (PC:NDP), except in the major urban centers.  But there is no way that Toronto, good chunks of 905 (central ON, York region, Peel) and Eastern ON abandon the Liberals completely, in favor of NDP.  Unlike in the west, where the NDP is seen as an ally of the common man, many parts of ON still see NDP as the ideological left wing socialist party, that they want no part of.  That may change but not overnight. 

It's not always easy to compare Ontario and the West, but I'm not so sure if the NDP constituencies are that different - even if the NDP is stronger traditionally in the West.  The party has strength in communities with a history of industrial trade unionism.  They also traditionally do well in major cities.  

But compared to say BC, yeah, the number of NDP dead zones is bigger in Ontario.  Van's suburbs have traditionally been more favorable - it doesn't really have the equivalent of York Region.  Van suburbs for the most part are more like Peel/Durham.

[cp]

t if they fall to single digits or worse zero seats, they will likely never form government again and as such future elections will be fought between PCs and NDP.  

This is a very, very false prediction.

Second.

The BC NDP was down to two seats in 2001, and they were a viable party of government as soon as 12 years later. I'm pretty sure the PCs or the Libs have been nearly wiped out in some of the Maritime provinces, too, and yet they're still all around and mostly in contention. And that's leaving aside the fact that the Liberal Party in Canada, especially its federal and Ontario manifestations, is about as entrenched as it's possible to be in the Canadian financial, industrial, educational, legal, medical, military, and heritage sectors. They will never run out of viable candidates with the necessary connections and expertise to win elections.

[RogueBeaver]

Ipsos: 37/34/22.

[King of Kensington]

The Liberal recovery in Toronto is interesting to note (but how much of that would be "wasted votes"?)

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Ipsos: 37/34/22.

From last poll
NDP -3 Conservative +1 Liberal -1 Other (includes Greens) +3

[PeteB]

We will likely see SW ON and Northern ON assume that pattern (PC:NDP), except in the major urban centers.  But there is no way that Toronto, good chunks of 905 (central ON, York region, Peel) and Eastern ON abandon the Liberals completely, in favor of NDP.  Unlike in the west, where the NDP is seen as an ally of the common man, many parts of ON still see NDP as the ideological left wing socialist party, that they want no part of.  That may change but not overnight. 

It's not always easy to compare Ontario and the West, but I'm not so sure if the NDP constituencies are that different - even if the NDP is stronger traditionally in the West.  The party has strength in communities with a history of industrial trade unionism.  They also traditionally do well in major cities.  

But compared to say BC, yeah, the number of NDP dead zones is bigger in Ontario.  Van's suburbs have traditionally been more favorable - it doesn't really have the equivalent of York Region.  Van suburbs for the most part are more like Peel/Durham.

The big difference stems from history, and actually explains the "dead zones". The Cooperative Commonwealth Foundation (CCF) started up as a defender of farmers and rural folk (copyright by Doug Ford ) in the west. As a result, it's heir, the NDP, is favorably perceived both in cities and in smaller communities. That was NOT the case in Ontario. Most of the rural constituencies in Eastern ON have not been friendly to the NDP, and in turn the NDP has not made an attempt to penetrate them. That is why I laugh when I hear talk about NDP winning rural or suburban seats in the East or in central Ontario. The NDP are simply not there and when people on the forum wish for Liberals to collapse in many ridings, they are pretty much rooting for Doug Ford.

Andrea Horwath is a formidable competitor, and I like a lot of their front bench such as Peter Tabuns, but the rest of her team leaves a lot to be desired. Her campaign is run professionally BUT mainly because it is being manned by experienced NDP operatives from Manitoba, Alberta and BC, not by Ontarians.

If they manage to get a minority government, I think they will have an opportunity to prove themselves to Ontarians.

[Hatman 🍁]

Some interesting riding polls today from Mainstreet. Results aren't too surprising, kind of re-affirms what I've been thinking.

[PeteB]

Ipsos: 37/34/22.

From last poll
NDP -3 Conservative +1 Liberal -1 Other (includes Greens) +3

This obviously doesn't include the effects of the debate, which may tamper the PC lead, but it will be a good wakeup call to all those who are dreaming of an NDP sweep, at a time when the PC fundamentals have remained essentially unchanged and strong.  With the IPSOS result, PC are pretty close to majority territory, but I think they will be pushed down somewhat.

I projected 34/35/23., after the debate, which is actually not that far off from this result.

[King of Kensington]

The big difference stems from history, and actually explains the "dead zones". The Cooperative Commonwealth Foundation (CCF) started up as a defender of farmers and rural folk (copyright by Doug Ford ) in the west. As a result, it's heir, the NDP, is favorably perceived both in cities and in smaller communities. That was NOT the case in Ontario. Most of the rural constituencies in Eastern ON have not been friendly to the NDP, and in turn the NDP has not made an attempt to penetrate them. That is why I laugh when I hear talk about NDP winning rural or suburban seats in the East or in central Ontario. The NDP are simply not there and when people on the forum wish for Liberals to collapse in many ridings, they are pretty much rooting for Doug Ford.

The "agrarian socialism" of Saskatchewan wheat farmers was kind of a unique historic phenomenon (and that's been on the decline for decades, not sure it can be said to exist at all anymore).  Rural areas in most of the Western world mostly vote for the right, including in Western Canada (except those with an "industrial" nature or a very large FN population).  Also the CCF was far more "ideological" than the modern NDP, so I don't think this is really a relevant comparison.  

[lilTommy]

Some interesting riding polls today from Mainstreet. Results aren't too surprising, kind of re-affirms what I've been thinking.

Can someone provide these riding polls?

[PeteB]

The big difference stems from history, and actually explains the "dead zones". The Cooperative Commonwealth Foundation (CCF) started up as a defender of farmers and rural folk (copyright by Doug Ford ) in the west. As a result, it's heir, the NDP, is favorably perceived both in cities and in smaller communities. That was NOT the case in Ontario. Most of the rural constituencies in Eastern ON have not been friendly to the NDP, and in turn the NDP has not made an attempt to penetrate them. That is why I laugh when I hear talk about NDP winning rural or suburban seats in the East or in central Ontario. The NDP are simply not there and when people on the forum wish for Liberals to collapse in many ridings, they are pretty much rooting for Doug Ford.

The "agrarian socialism" of Saskatchewan wheat farmers was kind of a unique historic phenomenon (and that's been on the decline for decades, it it can be said to exist at all anymore).  Rural areas in most of the Western world mostly vote for the right, including in Western Canada (except those with an "industrial" nature or a very large FN population).  Also the CCF was far more "ideological" than the modern NDP, so I don't think this is really a relevant comparison.  

All your points stand, except the last.  My (very relevant )point wass that, because of that history, CCF/NDP was always perceived as the protector of rural communities in the West, something that was never the case in Ontario!

[Hatman 🍁]

Some interesting riding polls today from Mainstreet. Results aren't too surprising, kind of re-affirms what I've been thinking.

Can someone provide these riding polls?

Let's just say there is a good correlation between John Tory support and OLP support. Very interesting.

[King of Kensington]

Can someone provide these riding polls?

They're encouraging if you're a Conservative.

PCs leading in the DVE and DVN, blowout in Mississauga-Lakeshore.

Even Brampton only looks OK from an NDP point of view.  West and North they're neck in neck with the PCs, South PCs are leading.

The NDP is well ahead in Kingston - but that was never going PC anyway.

[PeteB]

Ipsos: 37/34/22.

From last poll
NDP -3 Conservative +1 Liberal -1 Other (includes Greens) +3

This obviously doesn't include the effects of the debate, which may tamper the PC lead, but it will be a good wakeup call to all those who are dreaming of an NDP sweep, at a time when the PC fundamentals have remained essentially unchanged and strong.  With the IPSOS result, PC are pretty close to majority territory, but I think they will be pushed down somewhat.

I projected 34/35/23., after the debate, which is actually not that far off from this result.

And, to add insult to injury, the media is running with this poll and claiming it is AFTER the final debate:

NDP lags, PCs retake lead in Ontario election after final debate: Ipsos poll

Other interesting findings:

Regional Variation - as can be seen below, other than SW Ontario, there is little reason for NDP to be happy about.  The Liberals are still competitive in Toronto and Eastern Ontario while PC is sweeping Central Ontario and strongly leading in the 905 area.



Voting intentions - A full 82 per cent of PC voters responding to the Ipsos poll said they were “completely certain” they’d turn up to vote, while among NDP voters it was 69 per cent and among Liberal supporters it was 65 per cent.

Continuing gender gap problem for PC - There remains a “huge” gender gap in PC supporters, with 42 per cent of men backing Ford compared to 33 per cent of women.