NY-09, Special Election Thread

[J. J.]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

[Wonkish1]

To someone that knows the district better than I...

Forest Hills(Dem territory) should have the largest Precinct dumps, correct?

[cinyc]

Call me crazy, but if you sit and stare at the map it would appear that more small precincts should come from the Dem territory in the east then the slight GOP territory in the south or the swing territory in the west of queens.

New York precincts don't work that way.  You can have a small precinct because it is one apartment building with a tenant association that complained to the Democratic party chiefs about having to trudge elsewhere to vote.  Or it can be one block because the Assembly or City Council District lines make that block unique.  There is no reason to believe that the lines would uniformly be anywhere in the city.

Besides, turnout can be low overall.  As I said, this race got more play outside of NYC than in it.  The media market has other things to report on than one Congressional race, including the hurricane and 9/11 ceremonies.  If the current trends continue, we're looking at about 60,000 out of 184,000 active registered voters turning out, a.k.a. about 33% turnout.

[J. J.]

61 in, Turner 54.  Only 8 are from Brooklyn.

[Marston]

Glad to see that Nevada is mimicking the vote-tabulating mastery taking place in New York.

[Wonkish1]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

[redcommander]

My lord Weprin is getting creamed. This is more embarrassing than Republicans losing NY-26.

[Marston]

61 in, Turner 54.  Only 8 are from Brooklyn.

and Weprin is getting annihilated 71-29

[J. J.]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

[Torie]

This race already looks over. I am going to put up a couple of maps to make sure.

[Dereich]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

Well yeah, but Brooklyn has less then 1000 votes in so far.

[Wonkish1]

This thing is pretty close to me calling it here.

The guy needs close to 60% in Queens and he isn't even breaking 50. There is 0 reason to believe that some 80% territory is going to pop out of nowhere to start making up this kind of beat down.

[Smash255]

My lord Weprin is getting creamed. This is more embarrassing than Republicans losing NY-26.

Still too early.  The Queens #'s certainly look bad, but it really depends on whats in.  The Queens portion leans Dem no question, but you have liberal Forest Hills and very conservative and racist Howard Beach both in the district.

[cinyc]

Straight-line interpolation treating Brooklyn and Queens separately would have Turner winning with 58.6% of the vote and 33.8% turnout.

Caveat straight line, though, especially with so few Brooklyn precincts.

[redcommander]

Straight-line interpolation treating Brooklyn and Queens separately would have Turner winning with 58.6% of the vote and 33.8% turnout.

That is an incredibly large swing considering how well Weiner and Obama did in the district.

[J. J.]

What is the Orthodox population of Queens vs. Brooklyn?

Brooklyn is much more orthodox

and Queens is pretty Jewish, but they are the more of the wealthy not a strict type.

Its a war between two types of Jews.

Turner is at 71% in Brooklyn.

Well yeah, but Brooklyn has less then 1000 votes in so far.

9 in, and now Turner is at 72% there.

[Sam Spade]

Either there's a lot of liberal precincts outstanding in Queens, or this one is over, and it may not even be close.

[Marston]

Hah, what if Marshall ended up doing better than Weprin?

[Sam Spade]

Weprin pushes it back to 50-50 in Queens with about a third in.  Still almost nothing from Brooklyn.

[Wonkish1]

These aren't Howard Beach numbers though. They dumps would be trending more GOP. They aren't from Forest Hills either or the dumps would be more Dem they are from somewhere else. Numbers like these aren't the kind of numbers you see from either parties 'strongholds' within a county, city, borough, etc.

Don't get me wrong Welprin will still most assuredly take Queens. But its increasingly less likely that he's going to take it by even close the margins that he needs(like 57-58%) to win. Because he will get creamed in Brooklyn. I bet he loses 65-35 in Brooklyn.

[redcommander]

Weprin now down 49-50 in Queens.

[Keystone Phil]

Reports from a friend of mine on the ground say that Turner's staffers are expecting this one to be officially finished very soon.

[Wonkish1]

Still isn't breaking 50% in Queens with 1/3 of the precincts reporting...Ouch!!

I'm sorry but Forest Hills likely late dump isn't going to rescue this guy.

[krazen1211]

Weprin is going down!

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Yeah, I don't think there's any way to argue with a straight face that Weprin has a shot in hell left.