France General Discussion III: Tout doit disparaître

[Lechasseur]

So, if France's monarchy were to be reinstated, which of the three houses would be the likeliest choice (even if all of them are unlikely), Bourbon, Orleans or Bonaparte?

If there were a double referendum, first to restore the monarchy and then to choose the royal house, who would win?

Probably 90% of the French are unaware of the 3 royal/imperial houses. But yes, Bonaparte is the most prestigious name, they should win.

Good question, at any rate among monarchists, the Orléans are by far the most popular house.

It would be interesting to see how a referendum would play out, I suspect it would depend on the campaigns and who got the support of various politicians. Had there been a referendum say 60 years ago, it would have been the House of Orléans or nobody, but today it's less obvious. I still suspect the Orléans would be favorites just because they'd be the most likely to get the backing of the political right, while the left is by principle totally against monarchy (I suspect if the left had to back somebody, it would be the Bonapartes), and I think the legitimists wouldn't stand the slightest chance.

[Lechasseur]

So, if France's monarchy were to be reinstated, which of the three houses would be the likeliest choice (even if all of them are unlikely), Bourbon, Orleans or Bonaparte?

If there were a double referendum, first to restore the monarchy and then to choose the royal house, who would win?

I have to imagine the House of Bonaparte has the most popular support, even if that support is maybe 0.2%.

The Bonapartes may be the most popular dynasty historically overall, but nobody has wanted their restoration since the 1870s. Their fate was sealed in 1871. And then most legitimists switched over to supporting the House of Orléans after the Count of Chambord's death in 1883 (too late to get the monarchy restored in France, as it was the Count of Chambord having a Northamesque moment in 1873 that prevented a restoration then), so obviously the vast majority of French people are against a restoration, but I think on average they'd poll at about 5% (I need to find the sources where I saw that to confirm). The number seems logical, in the 1993 referendum on the monarchy in Brazil the monarchists got 6 or 7%, so it would make sense that in other countries that abolished their monarchies it would be about the same. I think out of those 5% or so, you probably would have at least 60% that would back the Orléans.

[Lechasseur]

There are strong rumors that Macron could decide to hold a referendum on May, 26th.

Effectivement, je viens de le voir/Yeah, I just saw that

http://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2019/02/03/01002-20190203ARTFIG00176-referendum-l-option-de-macron-pour-sortir-de-la-crise.php

[Lechasseur]

OK I found a couple of polls:

This poll from 2007 (BVA being the pollster, and the poll was made for France-Soir) states that 3% of French people are very favorable to a restoration of the monarchy, and another 14% rather favorable, to make a total of 17%:

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/531/fichier_lesfranaaisetlamonarchie_b69f5.pdf

Then here's a 2016 poll also cunducted by BVA, this time for Alliance Royale though:

http://www.bva.fr/data/sondage/sondage_fiche/1897/fichier_bva_pour_lalliance_royale_-_les_francais_et_la_monarchiefe87e.pdf

Yet again, 17% of the population would be favourable to having a king, including 27% of LR supporters and 37% of FN voters. So yeah, it's not as fringe as you'd think. (although that being said, a restoration will never happen). At anyrate, there are more monarchists than I thought.

[rob in cal]

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

[Lechasseur]

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

Yeah tbh I think that's stupid. Honestly I think it's demogoguery to tell the nation that reducing the number of MPs will actually change something. It won't, if anything it will make politicians even more out of touch as their constituencies will be even larger; and it's not the type of thing that's going to save billions of euros either, so I don't see the point.

The idea of proportional representation on the other hand seems very interesting, if the number of MPs was reduced in order to put in place PR that could be something worth thinking about.

[parochial boy]

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

Yeah tbh I think that's stupid. Honestly I think it's demogoguery to tell the nation that reducing the number of MPs will actually change something. It won't, if anything it will make politicians even more out of touch as their constituencies will be even larger; and it's not the type of thing that's going to save billions of euros either, so I don't see the point.

The idea of proportional representation on the other hand seems very interesting, if the number of MPs was reduced in order to put in place PR that could be something worth thinking about.

Agreed. I think it's a funny tactic though - the gilets jaunes were demanding the introduction of the RIC, so hold a referendum about a tedious subject, then when turnout is predictably pathetic, Macron can turn around and use it as "proof" that there is no demand to have widespread referendums

[Lechasseur]

  Got all excited about a national referendum to be held in France, only to find out it might be about, wait for it, drum roll please... reducing the size of the National Assembly.

Yeah tbh I think that's stupid. Honestly I think it's demogoguery to tell the nation that reducing the number of MPs will actually change something. It won't, if anything it will make politicians even more out of touch as their constituencies will be even larger; and it's not the type of thing that's going to save billions of euros either, so I don't see the point.

The idea of proportional representation on the other hand seems very interesting, if the number of MPs was reduced in order to put in place PR that could be something worth thinking about.

Agreed. I think it's a funny tactic though - the gilets jaunes were demanding the introduction of the RIC, so hold a referendum about a tedious subject, then when turnout is predictably pathetic, Macron can turn around and use it as "proof" that there is no demand to have widespread referendums

Exactly

[windjammer]

Personally if I have to choose between the 3, I would choose the legitimist claimant.

[Former President tack50]

There are strong rumors that Macron could decide to hold a referendum on May, 26th.

A referendum on what?

[Tirnam]

There are strong rumors that Macron could decide to hold a referendum on May, 26th.

A referendum on what?

Not official yet but probably
-reducing the size of the National Assembly and the Senate
-proportionnal representation
-recognition of the blank vote

[Big Abraham]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

This goofball is now the head of the House of Orleans

Why do you think he's a goofball?

I was kidding, I know hardly anything about the guy

[IceAgeComing]

Not official yet but probably
-reducing the size of the National Assembly and the Senate
-proportionnal representation
-recognition of the blank vote

How would "recognition of the blank vote" work in PR?  Only way would be leaving a certain section of seats blank which... really would not be a very good idea.  I'm sceptical about reducing the size of parliaments on principle (feeds the old "politicians are bad" narrative but tends to lead to worse governance) but I don't know about France in particular and PR is probably a good idea - certainly in the short term the only hope that the wider Left has of having any real representation!

[Tirnam]

Not official yet but probably
-reducing the size of the National Assembly and the Senate
-proportionnal representation
-recognition of the blank vote

How would "recognition of the blank vote" work in PR?  Only way would be leaving a certain section of seats blank which... really would not be a very good idea.  I'm sceptical about reducing the size of parliaments on principle (feeds the old "politicians are bad" narrative but tends to lead to worse governance) but I don't know about France in particular and PR is probably a good idea - certainly in the short term the only hope that the wider Left has of having any real representation!

We don’t know if there will be a referendum and the questions. The recognition of blank vote is for all elections, including the presidential election. I don’t necessarily think that this could be in the referendum, I guess it would be a constitutional referendum which is more complex to organize than a legislative referendum.
For me, if those question were asked I would probably vote no to all.

[Lechasseur]

Not official yet but probably
-reducing the size of the National Assembly and the Senate
-proportionnal representation
-recognition of the blank vote

How would "recognition of the blank vote" work in PR?  Only way would be leaving a certain section of seats blank which... really would not be a very good idea.  I'm sceptical about reducing the size of parliaments on principle (feeds the old "politicians are bad" narrative but tends to lead to worse governance) but I don't know about France in particular and PR is probably a good idea - certainly in the short term the only hope that the wider Left has of having any real representation!

We don’t know if there will be a referendum and the questions. The recognition of blank vote is for all elections, including the presidential election. I don’t necessarily think that this could be in the referendum, I guess it would be a constitutional referendum which is more complex to organize than a legislative referendum.
For me, if those question were asked I would probably vote no to all.

Recognizing the blank vote would mean that a lot of elections would be voided so I don't think that would be workable. I don't like the idea of reducing the number of deputies for the reasons you mentioned, on the other hand PR would be a good idea (at least in theory, not sure about in practice) (I think without it, we'll probably be dealing with 1 party rule for a while, given how both the conservative right and the left are fractured, and I don't see them making a comeback anytime soon under the current system).

[Lechasseur]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-royals/count-of-paris-pretender-to-french-throne-dies-aged-85-idUSKCN1PF1WT

This goofball is now the head of the House of Orleans

Why do you think he's a goofball?

I was kidding, I know hardly anything about the guy

Ah ok lol

[Hash]

How would recognizing blank votes mean that "a lot" of elections would be voided? The effects of a blank vote would depend on what the enabling legislation says but, more likely than not, an election would only be voided if blank votes were an absolute majority or a plurality of votes cast over all other lists/candidates - something which has never happened in a national election in France and which would still be extremely unlikely to happen in a national election even if blank votes were to be counted as valid votes. It would probably happen, hypothetically, in some local elections with few candidates in small towns or those runoffs with only a single candidate. I don't believe that recognizing blank votes would massively increase the number of blank votes in the long term, certainly not from 5-ish% to 30% or something.

I also don't see the issue with recognizing blank votes with a PR system (besides, FBM's 'PR' idea is most likely some bullsh**t 'dose' of PR under a ridiculously convoluted system which would make a farce of the whole thing). Several countries which use PR recognize blank votes in legislative elections, like Spain and Colombia, and it doesn't necessarily imply leaving seats blank. In both of those countries, blank votes only increase the number of valid votes, which effectively raises the 'real' threshold and probably hurts small parties hovering right around the threshold (i.e. a party which wins 5.01% of the vote without blank votes being considered would win less than 5% if blank votes are recognized and therefore not get seats). In Colombia, the only real effect blank votes would have on legislative elections is if they were a plurality/absolute majority (still not legally clear which it is) over all other lists, then the election would have to be repeated. It's never happened, and will probably never happen.

The major serious issue with the blank vote is in the event of a close presidential runoff in which the winner's margin is narrow and the number of blank votes is high, which could bring the winner's percentage of the vote below 50%. I guess they could say that blank votes don't count in runoffs (and referendums) - a more esoteric argument could be made to justify this - but people would be pissed off, given that blank votes are understandably higher in runoffs (at least in France).

[MABA 2020]

I love that if France were to restore it's monarchy they have three options to choose from, I imagine it would come down to something of a personality contest between the heads of the three houses, which ever is most charismatic

[Tirnam]

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 27%
Mélenchon: 12%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 6%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%

Second round: Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

[windjammer]

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 27%
Mélenchon: 12%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 6%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%

Second round: Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

Yes I think that's the likely scenario*right now*

[Helsinkian]

https://twitter.com/alfonslopeztena/status/1094381713306857472

[parochial boy]

So Decathlon release a "sports Hijab" and all the usual suspects from across the political spectrum line up to denounce this humoungous affront to French values/laïcité/women's rights and all - but, for all that I do think there are areas where there might be a debate to be had about wearing a niqab to school or whatever, I fail to see how this isn't just straight out racism?

[PSOL]

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 27%
Mélenchon: 12%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 6%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%

Second round: Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

Yes I think that's the likely scenario*right now*

Why don’t they poll the Green candidate, considering they are ahead of generation.s in the polls?

[parochial boy]

Ifop poll, 2022 presidential election

Macron: 30%
Le Pen: 27%
Mélenchon: 12%
Wauquiez: 8%
Hamon: 6%
Dupont-Aignan: 6%

Second round: Macron 56%, Le Pen 44%

Yes I think that's the likely scenario*right now*

Why don’t they poll the Green candidate, considering they are ahead of generation.s in the polls?

They did, Yannick Jadot at 2%, suffering from a lack of name recognition and EELV always overperform at the Europeans.

Of course, polling at this stage is entirely irrelevant - remember at this point in 2014 we all thought Juppé was going to be the next president.

[parochial boy]

Good old Macron is pushing forward with the privatisation of ADP group, the company that runs the Paris area airports.

This is a company that generates about 160m Euros a year to the French treasury, and is currently expanding rapidly and becoming increasingly profitable. So why privatise it? Selling off a successful state owned company is either being driven by pure ideology, in the face of actual reality; and works out as a delightful gift from the French taxpayers to the rich.